January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Here we go! SSW, retrogression, reverse psychology, whatever it takes! Let it snow! 

[ShawniganLake]

Already 0.01” in the bucket for 2021

[The Blob]

Oh there is a Junuary thread.

Happy new years!

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Already 0.01” in the bucket for 2021

I’m already up to .02” for the year! 

[Meatyorologist]

oops, created another thread when I realized you had already beat me to it! 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

oops, created another thread when I realized you had already beat me to it! 

We are all excited to leave 2020 in the dust! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Any 00z EPS news? How did Day 10-15 shake out?

[Cloud]

Soggy start to 2021 but I’m happy the dumpster fire 2020 year is over.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Things can only start to get better from here......I hope.....

[Requiem]

Happy New Years folks, hope this one is better than the last. Wishing every single person on here the happiest of years.

[Timmy Supercell]

Happy 2021 everyone!

Foggy with fireworks, that's gotta be a first for me.

[Meatyorologist]

Hopefully this thread is more decorated with snowmaps and pictures than its predecessor. Cautiously optimistic for the second half of the month and into February as the jet retracts and cold air moves around meridionally in response to the ongoing SSW event.

It isn't a slam dunk, but there is an opportunity for some more wintry weather in the upcoming timeframe. Cancelling winter is just as irresponsible and unfounded as guaranteeing a cold snap. Perhaps if one is feeling a bit peckish for snowfall this winter, it might be in their best interest to remove themselves from the meteorology-sphere for a while, as the next ten or so days will feature a screaming jet into western North America with arctic air staying put in Siberia. If all goes right, the time spent away may make for some good rest before things turn for the better.

Again, not guaranteeing anything. But I'm not going to hinge my emotions and opinions on the long range outlook of a single model run, a single ensemble suite, or a minute trend in the unforgiving, unreachable ether of the extended weeklies. However, I will pay attention to the atmospheric indicators that have been screaming at an impending pattern change in the coming weeks. That is not wishcasting; it is directly founded in reality, backed up by previous analogs and experts in the field. Don't believe it? Fine. But don't groan around on the forum torturing yourself. It's painful to watch. Unless you're Phil. He relishes in your pain. (I'm joking y'all, don't stone me!)

I'll be waiting patiently, unwavered, as I have been since November.

--

The image attached is from February 2019. Deep into an El Niño; a month further in than we are this winter, with nothing on the horizon, we all thought it was over. I was migrating from Twitter onto here to establish my presence in preparation for the upcoming heat wave/nocturnal thunderstorm season that makes up our summers. But suddenly, a Siberian SSW event occurred, and by no coincidence, we stumbled into one of the most stable, widespread, and most importantly, lucrative, cold patterns in over a decade. It holds my household record for the deepest base at 14" (our only foot-plus depth), and the largest snowstorm, with 8" on the eighth of the month.

The image here is placed both for the purpose of spreading good vibes and reliving memories, as well as to remind us of the futility of deciding what mother nature will deal us. We can only read her through the language of patterns and tendencies, and in this case, it suggests our odds for interesting weather will increase with time.

Once again, happy new years to you all. And, most importantly, patience.

06z GFS in 20 minutes.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That being said I've watched the majority of Ventrice's very informative video and if the composites he's based his predictions off of are any sign, we shouldn't start to see a flip in the models for at least a few more days. 7 days after the SSW is when the -EPO should just be starting to emerge. 14 days after and an expansive West Canadian cold pool could develop. 

Awesome video by the way. Thanks to whoever shared that. Learned quite a bit about SSWs and their potential impacts, let alone the patterns that are precursors to them... the much-lamented Aleutian vortex being one for Siberian-based SSWs.

Seems counter intuitive that we always root against a pattern that is a conduit for a favorable SSW. But, alas, we must not relent - bad Aleutian low!!!

Thanks. I too watched his videos. I agree it's not likely we're going to see large scale pattern changes showing up on the models for a bit longer. It's coming.

[Christensen87]

Happy 2021! Cheers to a chilly February. 

[Phil]

Interesting change in SSTAs over the last week.

[wxmet]

Waiting for these fireworks to stop so I can go to bed

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Interesting change in SSTAs over the last week.

Active storm track paying in dividends for the North Pacific.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

[Timmy Supercell]

Here's to a stormy year for everyone!

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 9

[GHweatherChris]

48 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Waiting for these fireworks to stop so I can go to bed

Caren?

[Gradient Keeper]

This run is mega wet, but lacking with Cascade snow especially in Oregon.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

This run is mega wet, but lacking with Cascade snow especially in Oregon.

Gained a bit more after Day 9, and we all know how accurate the GFS that far out.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is INSANE

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

Nothing after day ten from now on, unless there's something interesting.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

Possible flooding is real exciting...... not really. I might build a mudman

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Possible flooding is real exciting...... not really. I might build a mudman

The North Cascades could very well be the snowiest place on Earth over the next ten days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ready for the 6z GEFS to show a fair bit of retrogression. Here we go!

[Tyler Mode]

Starting off 2021 with a low temperature two degrees above the average high...

[The Blob]

Who else is going to get their gardens ready for the new spring since winter is cancled?

[Cloud]

It seems like mudslides are a real possibility over the next 10 days.