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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

We're maxing out the scale! Although if you want to be drier in Western Washington here in the shadow we'll only have 5"! Honestly this would cause insane flooding. This shows 30"+ for parts of the Olympics.

Lotsofrain_1_1_21.thumb.png.7bbfd66c2b01a7073387d872a37a82b5.png

That is lots of rain... but it probably wouldn't result in insane flooding.   For example... it shows 10 inches at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 16 days.   The normal January precip there is almost 16 inches so that would put them on track to be a little above normal for the month.  

And of course its the GFS and precip totals are usually overstated. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The gfs shows almost the same pattern the entire 16 days over our continent.  Hour 0 looks like 384.  Something will probably change between now and then

A decent chance a lot of areas will see rain every day through the first half of the month. Feel like we're definitely setting the table for a much drier February at least, which usually means more blocking.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is lots of rain... but it probably wouldn't result in insane flooding.   For example... it shows 10 inches at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 16 days.   The normal January precip there is almost 16 inches so that would put them on track to be a little above normal for the month.  

And of course its the GFS and precip totals are usually overstated. 

Okay, "insane" may have been a little overstated, but there would be lowland flooding (and a high mudslide risk) if this verified verbatim (and yes I realize it usually overdoes precip, so this almost certainly won't verify). It shows 7" of rain in Seattle in the next 10 days (on the higher resolution) and 10+" in the next 16 days which would be approaching some of our wettest similar length periods.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Climate Realism is going to be big in 2021. Going to be a tough year for Jesse. 

If things end up turning around, and you pull these posts to try and make me eat crow, I will remind you #1 I never canceled winter. #2 where you can put that crow, and #3 where to send your thanks via paypal. 

...OK. I have no earthly idea who this is projected towards but let me assure you that when it is snowing I'm really more of the - bundle up with a cup of coffee and walk around the neighborhood - type rather than the - get on the weather forums and win some internet points with receipts - 

 

HOWEVER due to your intentionally obtuse behavior and generally bad posting this morning IF it snows this year I'm going to put "winter is canceled" -SilverFallsAndrew 1/1/21 on my signature and the only thing I'm gonna PayPal you is a BIG OL SMILEY FACE! 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is lots of rain... but it probably wouldn't result in insane flooding.   For example... it shows 10 inches at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 16 days.   The normal January precip there is almost 16 inches so that would put them on track to be a little above normal for the month.  

And of course its the GFS and precip totals are usually overstated. 

Isn't this a bit misleading because you also have to consider the snowpack up in Snoqualmie as well? The 10" that falls over heavy snowpack vs 10" that falls over little snowpack makes a huge difference in term of flooding.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Isn't this a bit misleading because you also have to consider the snowpack up in Snoqualmie as well? The 10" that falls over heavy snowpack vs 10" that falls over little snowpack makes a huge difference in term of flooding.

Flooding is usually not a big issue when the precip (and potential snow melt) is spread out over 2 weeks.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The January thread is off to a good start. 

 

What's your favorite ice cream flavor?

Tillamook Mudslide

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Interestingly... the 12Z ECMWF shows the Seattle area getting about 60-70% of the normal rainfall for all of January by Monday afternoon on the 4th day of the month.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-9812000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The January thread is off to a good start. 

 

What's your favorite ice cream flavor?

anything with chocolate and peanut butter

the second half of january is going to be epic

every day we get closer to the big storm of 2021, we are due and it's a lock

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7 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

anything with chocolate and peanut butter

the second half of january is going to be epic

every day we get closer to the big storm of 2021, we are due and it's a lock

 

12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Tillamook Mudslide

Nice. I'm a big fan of mint chocolate flavors. 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the 12Z ECMWF shows the Seattle area getting about 60-70% of the normal rainfall for all of January by Monday afternoon on the 4th day of the month.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-9812000.png

Wish the focus would be further south. We really need a significantly wet month. December was not a complete lost cause in the precip department. Most valley stations were at least near average, and we were actually a little above. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The January thread is off to a good start. 

 

What's your favorite ice cream flavor?

Rocky Road.  And I still believe we will have a great winter.  People put so much faith in long range models when the effects of the SSW aren't even projected to show yet.  And isn't the winter supposed to be backloaded anyway?! All stuff that has already been said, I know. But really, I'm not giving up.

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I struggled with what to do for my first post of 2021, but in light of this year’s early developments I decided to go with a random puppy and/or puppies pic.

image.jpeg.e56b376d0d63f0ca4aa244231b7d41ce.jpeg
 

These may continue until global statistical models improve.  I will strategically avoid puppies playing in snow or intensely warmed stratospheric conditions.

This little guy’s name is Jet Retraction. They call him Jetret for short.

Happy New Year!!!🥰🥰🥰

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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52F and cloudy but dry right now. Got down to a bone-chilling 48F on this Juneuary morning.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

So winter canceled from even Mark himself. I don’t even know why I keep the forum up. We’re probably not going to see snow this winter, and the heat death of the universe might be the only time Seattle will get a high below freezing for more than a day or two.

You’re right Andrew, unless we get some good cold zonal for our friends at decent elevations, then there is no point. Life has lost meaning and we are measly organisms looking to eat and our way through existence until extinguished. 

I would just like Eugene to have a sub freezing high.

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, iFred said:

So winter canceled from even Mark himself. I don’t even know why I keep the forum up. We’re probably not going to see snow this winter, and the heat death of the universe might be the only time Seattle will get a high below freezing for more than a day or two.

You’re right Andrew, unless we get some good cold zonal for our friends at decent elevations, then there is no point. Life has lost meaning and we are measly organisms looking to eat and our way through existence until extinguished. 

We are like snowflakes in the PNW. We have various structures and identities but we always melt when the southerlies arrive and eventually become one with the ocean....

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would just like Eugene to have a sub freezing high.

Seriously. This stretch just feels like what our normal winter weather is now. Way warm and no chance of seeing a significant Dec-Jan event ever again down this way. It’s getting to the point where I’m just resigned to the fact that I’m not going to experience another one until our family moves one day.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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SEA finished December 3.8 degrees above normal and 1.30 inches wetter than normal.

Bellingham was +3.9 and +2.60 for December.

Also... SEA finished 2020 with 41.32 inches of rain which is almost 4 inches above normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another interesting stat as we embark on a new year... SEA was just about 35 inches above normal for rainfall for the 2010-2020 period.   Wet!  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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About the only positive I can think of over the next 10 days is we should be putting a dent in our drought conditions at least. But the burn scar areas could have it pretty rough.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seriously. This stretch just feels like what our normal winter weather is now. Way warm and no chance of seeing a significant Dec-Jan event ever again down this way. It’s getting to the point where I’m just resigned to the fact that I’m not going to experience another one until our family moves one day.

We are operating on the same wavelengths my brother. Totally agree. This feels exactly like this point the last few winters. At some point things may or may not improve. I was just telling someone I actually really enjoyed February and March last year. Coolish, some nice sunny days and about one decent snowfall a week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Times like this I really appreciate you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Times like this I really appreciate you. 

I actually had somewhat high hopes for January after a warm December... and would much rather have arctic air and snow right now than rain every day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Jet begins to retract starting around day 13 but you’re right it’s pretty ugly at day 15

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53 here in a drenching drizzle.  .03" on the day.  With Jim's predictable absence it looks like we pretty much all agree that January looks like it may not be a top tier cold and snowy month.  I'm preparing my much neglected drainage system for a lot of water over the next couple weeks.  My shop flooded the last heavy rain event just prior to our delightful little snow storm and I would like to avoid that again.  I hope you all have an ever increasingly happy new year.

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And you wonder how much warmer and drier the averages will be for down this way esp with these last few north/south precip years.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And you wonder how much warmer and drier the averages will be for down this way esp with these last few north/south precip years.

For PDX January-March got slightly cooler, all other months warmer. The 80s were actually a fairly dry decade regionally IIRC. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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