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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Looking at Salem, average annual precipitation 2011-2020 was 39.07". Average for period of record 1892-present is 39.26, 1981-2010 average was 39.67. 

2012 was the 4th wettest year on record at SLE, 2013 was the driest on record. 5 years were above average (2012,14,15,16,17), 5 below (2011,13,18,19,20). 

1981-1990 averaged 37.89" annually at SLE, so the new averages should be slightly wetter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I'm guessing much of what falls there ends up sticking around for the winter too. Time to open a winter retreat for winter-starved forum members 😂

In December and January it only gets above freezing a few days. Pretty common to be below freezing all of January.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Salem went a full decade ,1985-1994 without recording more than 40" of annual precip. So we have had it far worse. Here is the last decade. 

2011: 35.88

2012: 55.37

2013: 23.59

2014: 41.56

2015: 40.67

2016: 47.01

2017: 50.91

2018: 31.02

2019: 30.86

2020: 33.78

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Acer said:

Wouldn't play on my circa 1985 laptop.

You are not missing much. Just wanted to try out posting a video. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just read the year end write up from the NWS for Salem. 19th warmest year on record (Could have been a lot worse!), 4 record max min's, but no record highs. One record low. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just read the year end write up from the NWS for Salem. 19th warmest year on record (Could have been a lot worse!), 4 record max min's, but no record highs. One record low. 

The smoky skies may have helped drop them a spot or two.🥰

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The smoky skies may have helped drop them a spot or two.🥰

September was only the 13th warmest on record there. Warmest year relative to average was January which came in at 5th warmest. Coldest month was March which came in at 42nd coldest March on record. lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA finished December 3.8 degrees above normal and 1.30 inches wetter than normal.

Bellingham was +3.9 and +2.60 for December.

Also... SEA finished 2020 with 41.32 inches of rain which is almost 4 inches above normal.

How many runways are at KBLI?

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Furrrst 18z of the rest of our lives is running!!!

image.jpeg.b8081dbf817b6feb8ce5a14255de4a7b.jpeg

Who could hate an 18z that looks like that!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

That being said I've watched the majority of Ventrice's very informative video and if the composites he's based his predictions off of are any sign, we shouldn't start to see a flip in the models for at least a few more days. 7 days after the SSW is when the -EPO should just be starting to emerge. 14 days after and an expansive West Canadian cold pool could develop. 

Awesome video by the way. Thanks to whoever shared that. Learned quite a bit about SSWs and their potential impacts, let alone the patterns that are precursors to them... the much-lamented Aleutian vortex being one for Siberian-based SSWs.

Seems counter intuitive that we always root against a pattern that is a conduit for a favorable SSW. But, alas, we must not relent - bad Aleutian low!!!

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

We have another brand new member of the forum here.

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Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would counter that I just comment on what the models are actually showing. He comments on what he wants them to show and projects it. A lot of people do that in the "weather community." People who objectively assess the situation are often labeled as "negative." Because that is the climate we live in. Then there are folks like you who do not like to analyze models or make predictions, preferring to take shots at those who want to engage in substantive discussion. Almost 42,000 posts of banality. I accept your apology however, new year, new leaf. 

Long range models are not realism, though.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just to shed a bit more light on the timeline of when the SSW events normally pay off for us.  The last two major SSWs happened in the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19.  In both cases there was a huge spike followed by a huge crash.  In both cases significant cold waves happened while the crash on the other side was in progress.  In the case of 2018 the cold came about a week after the peak of the SSW and in 2019 it was about 3 weeks.  This one looks like it will peak in a week or so.  I'm still very hopeful for some good stuff later on.

I know people poo poo the EPS control model, but the last two runs have shown a favorable configuration by mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF actually shows generally dry weather from Friday through Sunday of next week.   That would be nice.

How are you holding up these days? This pattern must be pretty hard for u to handle.

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just to shed a bit more light on the timeline of when the SSW events normally pay off for us.  The last two major SSWs happened in the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19.  In both cases there was a huge spike followed by a huge crash.  In both cases significant cold waves happened while the crash on the other side was in progress.  In the case of 2018 the cold came about a week after the peak of the SSW and in 2019 it was about 3 weeks.  This one looks like it will peak in a week or so.  I'm still very hopeful for some good stuff later on.

I know people poo poo the EPS control model, but the last two runs have shown a favorable configuration by mid month.

Didn't this model show a favorable pattern by Christmas, then New Year's? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

Ours hasn’t closed up shop entirely either.  I was out yesterday taking down Xmas and Covid decorations and thought things had awakened but then realized it had never fallen asleep.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Wave pool getting shaken up big time though. The warmth in west-central Canada begins to fade on most EPS members after Jan 10th.

And FWIW, that’s a decent snow pattern here even if it’s doomed to melt 5 minutes later. Blizzard of 1983 had 6”/hr rates and had an almost identical pattern.

image.png.302cbbf95782d207954d2c3b7d24e99a.png

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

How are you holding up these days? This pattern must be pretty hard for u to handle.

 

It has not been bad at all this winter.  Lots of dry breaks and some sunny days mixed in.   Wet periods are to be expected.    And it actually looks like it will get better after Monday.   Friday-Sunday might be mostly dry.    I just wish we had more cold and snow.   This is the time of year that I love that.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't this model show a favorable pattern by Christmas, then New Year's? 

This was never the case considering the models showed the SSW event start at this time frame. Then 2-3 weeks to show something more favorable. My guess is 3rd week of Jan. The real obvious concern here is the further this drags on without any changes, our window closes quickly. No one wants a sloppy mess in March or April.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Wave pool getting shaken up big time though. The warmth in west-central Canada begins to fade on most EPS members after Jan 10th.

And FWIW, that’s a decent snow pattern here even if it’s doomed to melt 5 minutes later.

Blizzard of 1983 had 6”/hr rates and had an almost identical pattern.

image.png.302cbbf95782d207954d2c3b7d24e99a.png

#2warm2notsnow

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt this is releated to the recent extremely wet decade being added to the averages.

Entirely related in fact.

I think the 80's were fairly dry as well.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Monday night still looks snowy in K-FALLS. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This was never the case considering the models showed the SSW event start at this time frame. Then 2-3 weeks to show something more favorable. My guess is 3rd week of Jan. The real obvious concern here is the further this drags on without any changes, our window closes quickly. No one wants a sloppy mess in March or April.

Seems like some revisionist history going on here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Positive development in latest EPS run: anticyclone developing over the Beaufort/W-Arctic. That’s essentially the inverse of the pattern that ruined last winter.

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29 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

Omg dude. This is worse than Tim’s tulips

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