Jump to content

January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Omg dude. This is worse than Tim’s tulips

Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If we set the expectation of getting zero snow every year, then getting snow would be a surprise!!

That’s what I do. Works wonders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category.  Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has not been bad at all this winter.  Lots of dry breaks and some sunny days mixed in.   Wet periods are to be expected.    And it actually looks like it will get better after Monday.   Friday-Sunday might be mostly dry.    I just wish we had more cold and snow.   This is the time of year that I love that.

Can I get a pic of current conditions there? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff.

No photo description available.

image.png

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now.

I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal."

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal."

Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff.

No photo description available.

image.png

 

Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure...

January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her.

I am really trying!!!

I would say her weather preferences lean more towards Tim's. She grew up in K-Falls, so she has had enough snow in her life. 

  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7.

And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7.

And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 

Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. 

  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of my favorite things about the New Year: Scott’s annual yearly recap!

  • Like 5

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. 

Urals High/+EAMT (which also reinforces Indian Ocean convection). All of that nukes the NPAC, with IO trying to build a flat +NPO.

What models aren’t seeing right now is the MJO response to SSW-induced tropical stratospheric cooling coming out of the IO. Always a problem for models at this stage of the game, but the GFS in particular is having a hard time with it (and always does). One of those fickle situations where the Euro usually steamrolls the GFS.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category.  Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off.

Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. 

We were forecast to get around 100" of snow on the Sierra crest starting on Monday. Both models have now back tracked to almost 0. Pretty bad fail for both models. Good news is that when the storm track misses us we get brilliant blue skies, no wind, and warm temps. Here is picture from the top of Heavnely today. 

Edit. Meant to post this and not reply to the one above

20210101_090752.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone.😟

image.jpeg.abd43c503a5b856732cb3284464b7f3a.jpeg

Come on man. You know its not picking up the MOJO!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh

My 

God

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_55.png

  • Like 3
  • lol 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, luminen said:

 

Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure...

January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now.

From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups.

If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February.

 

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone.😟

image.jpeg.abd43c503a5b856732cb3284464b7f3a.jpeg

It actually does get some of that cold out of Eurasia and tries for a NPAC/W-Arctic anticyclone, but yeah this model is probably out of its league at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. 

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Impossible..Andrew says winter is cancelled.

image.thumb.png.9e3d336bc2cdc2cec9e4b88da824ba4d.png

Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. 

Andrew is shook.

  • lol 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Andrew is shook.

Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. 

  • scream 1
  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups.

If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February.

 

Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this.

There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete).

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...