SouthHillFrosty Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 If we set the expectation of getting zero snow every year, then getting snow would be a surprise!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Omg dude. This is worse than Tim’s tulips Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Could be starting on another pretty long frostless streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: If we set the expectation of getting zero snow every year, then getting snow would be a surprise!! That’s what I do. Works wonders. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter. A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category. Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It has not been bad at all this winter. Lots of dry breaks and some sunny days mixed in. Wet periods are to be expected. And it actually looks like it will get better after Monday. Friday-Sunday might be mostly dry. I just wish we had more cold and snow. This is the time of year that I love that. Can I get a pic of current conditions there? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now. I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal." Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal." Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff. Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure... January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal." 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her. I am really trying!!! I would say her weather preferences lean more towards Tim's. She grew up in K-Falls, so she has had enough snow in her life. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7. And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 It is raining pretty hard! It is 50 degrees! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7. And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. Yeah it is, and it will near mid-January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7. And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. It's the blob. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 One of my favorite things about the New Year: Scott’s annual yearly recap! 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: It is raining pretty hard! It is 50 degrees! That was a nice little front that went through Currently in your neck of the woods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The NWS is getting so bored they seem to be skipping hourly obs lately. Perhaps too Busy with the extrapolation easels you sent them for Christmas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. Urals High/+EAMT (which also reinforces Indian Ocean convection). All of that nukes the NPAC, with IO trying to build a flat +NPO. What models aren’t seeing right now is the MJO response to SSW-induced tropical stratospheric cooling coming out of the IO. Always a problem for models at this stage of the game, but the GFS in particular is having a hard time with it (and always does). One of those fickle situations where the Euro usually steamrolls the GFS. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category. Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off. Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: Long range models are not realism, though. Long range pessimism is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. We were forecast to get around 100" of snow on the Sierra crest starting on Monday. Both models have now back tracked to almost 0. Pretty bad fail for both models. Good news is that when the storm track misses us we get brilliant blue skies, no wind, and warm temps. Here is picture from the top of Heavnely today. Edit. Meant to post this and not reply to the one above 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone. Come on man. You know its not picking up the MOJO! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Greenland is much colder around day 10, that’s new. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Oh My God 3 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 39 minutes ago, luminen said: Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure... January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now. From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups. If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone. It actually does get some of that cold out of Eurasia and tries for a NPAC/W-Arctic anticyclone, but yeah this model is probably out of its league at the moment. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Impossible..Andrew says winter is cancelled. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Greenland is much colder around day 10, that’s new. Yeah, the GFS has eliminated a lot of the blood red that has had Justin all worked up the last few days. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Impossible..Andrew says winter is cancelled. That doesn’t look particularly cold. Foothill snow perhaps 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Impossible..Andrew says winter is cancelled. Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. Andrew is shook. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Andrew is shook. Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups. If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February. Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this. There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete). 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oh My God Pass 1 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.