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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. 

Let see how it progresses over time but it may very well be picking up on the SSW features now.

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

I'd personally give it a 75% chance at this point.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this.

There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete).

I don't think there was any major SSW prior to the December 2008 arctic blast, was there?

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

 

13 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Pass

I agree....Pass as the rest of us should.  The model is just feeding off our negative emotions now.  I now know where that alien life form went after it left the Enterprise 

5BC5B816-FC7E-4AAB-8ACA-8226A7E59BF0.jpeg

CA97662F-F35B-45DE-B5A5-300E9105D102.jpeg

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29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I thought there was an early season hit to the vortex that year. Could be wrong. 

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates.

1314889721_ScreenShot2021-01-01at4_04_06PM.thumb.png.bd98e13170740bb097e55a04172354f8.png

 

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. 

 

8 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates.

Screen Shot 2021-01-01 at 4.01.35 PM.png

 

Thanks for posting this! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Coldest member on the 18Z ensembles is -6, Brrrr

When there is that much consistency it kind of destroys any claim the models are "really struggling right now."

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

16 years ago right now the models were not struggling at all.

We were kind of due. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Wow I saw that except bothell is excluded. Per the ventusky site bothell still could get 40mph gusts

Bothell isn't included but I'm sure it's going to be windy/gusty there too. My sister is in Mill Creek and that area is included in the advisory. 

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter.

Would be nicer still to get a 6" event with 0' snow levels. Maybe even -1' for some of the fishies. 

THINK COLD AND SNOW C'MON

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. 
 

Probably gonna be a fun day. 

 

My son is flying back to Bozeman tomorrow, should be a fun flight!

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter.

There is a good sledding hill across the creek from the south falls parking lot. North Falls usually does very well and keeps snow for a long time. That is about 1500’ and the way the topography is they don’t get much sunlight, and precip kind of funnels into that area. South falls is about 1300’ and so in marginal situations there can be several inches at North Falls and just a dusting in the South Falls area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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High of 38, right now 35 degrees. Coolest day of 2021 so far!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January.  The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA.  This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state.  Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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43 minutes ago, dolt said:

I'm firing up the grill. Dickk sandwiches for everyone!

Been raining to hard to grille here. Temp down to a boring 42. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January.  The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA.  This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state.  Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter.

Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384.  I don't see any rising heights in the GOA.  The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some.  I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again.

 

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Just now, puyallupjon said:

Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384.  I don't see any rising heights in the GOA.  The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some.  I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again.

 

He’s talking about the super extended extended one. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For Flatiron:

Looks like 2020 finished up as the 9th warmest year on record at OLM. Ho hum.

Prior to 2014 there were only 5 warmer years!

It was also the 3rd year on record to not feature a low below 20 there (1966, 1999.....analogs?).

image.jpeg.c9101d3ca596147f1018dfae60442b6e.jpeg

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1878400.png

Have to say, that looks almost identical to runs a month ago for early January.

In reality, we’re looking at a top tier AL pattern.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1878400.png

Ok.  Thanks for the heads up.  Yeah.  Anything at beyond 384hrs is pretty accurate.  I have a Farmer's Almanac book.  Let me refer to that for the end of January.

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