Cloud Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. Let see how it progresses over time but it may very well be picking up on the SSW features now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter. A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. I'd personally give it a 75% chance at this point. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this. There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete). I don't think there was any major SSW prior to the December 2008 arctic blast, was there? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I don't think there was any major SSW prior to the December 2008 arctic blast, was there? I thought there was an early season hit to the vortex that year. Could be wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 13 minutes ago, umadbro said: Pass I agree....Pass as the rest of us should. The model is just feeding off our negative emotions now. I now know where that alien life form went after it left the Enterprise 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 The GFSv16 is replacing the GFS right? 18z of the GFSv16 looks good for snow 10 days out. Local images not available for this model 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I thought there was an early season hit to the vortex that year. Could be wrong. I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too. Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too. I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Prediction: There will be snow on the ground in the Portland metro area BEFORE February. Book it. MBG Money Back Guarantee 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. 8 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too. Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates. Thanks for posting this! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Thanks for posting this! Your welcome. I deleted that one and posted a better one thats zoomed in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Your welcome. I deleted that one and posted a better one thats zoomed in. I'm not that guy but......You're...... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: I'm not that guy but......You're...... Filling in for Jesse? 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Coldest member on the 18Z ensembles is -6, Brrrr 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. Probably gonna be a fun day. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: Coldest member on the 18Z ensembles is -6, Brrrr When there is that much consistency it kind of destroys any claim the models are "really struggling right now." 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 16 years ago right now the models were not struggling at all. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 16 years ago right now the models were not struggling at all. We were kind of due. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, Cloud said: Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. Probably gonna be a fun day. Wow I saw that except bothell is excluded. Per the ventusky site bothell still could get 40mph gusts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: That doesn’t look particularly cold. Foothill snow perhaps Andrew and I are now shaking in embarrassment and fear. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Wow I saw that except bothell is excluded. Per the ventusky site bothell still could get 40mph gusts Bothell isn't included but I'm sure it's going to be windy/gusty there too. My sister is in Mill Creek and that area is included in the advisory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Andrew and I are now shaking in embarrassment and fear. Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter. Would be nicer still to get a 6" event with 0' snow levels. Maybe even -1' for some of the fishies. THINK COLD AND SNOW C'MON 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. Probably gonna be a fun day. My son is flying back to Bozeman tomorrow, should be a fun flight! 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter. There is a good sledding hill across the creek from the south falls parking lot. North Falls usually does very well and keeps snow for a long time. That is about 1500’ and the way the topography is they don’t get much sunlight, and precip kind of funnels into that area. South falls is about 1300’ and so in marginal situations there can be several inches at North Falls and just a dusting in the South Falls area. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 High of 38, right now 35 degrees. Coolest day of 2021 so far! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Temp has really crashed here in the last three hours going from 55 down to 49.......brrrrrrrrrrr 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 For Flatiron: Looks like 2020 finished up as the 9th warmest year on record at OLM. Ho hum. Prior to 2014 there were only 5 warmer years! It was also the 3rd year on record to not feature a low below 20 there (1966, 1999.....analogs?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 I'm firing up the grill. Dickk sandwiches for everyone! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, dolt said: I'm firing up the grill. Dickk sandwiches for everyone! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January. The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA. This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state. Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, dolt said: I'm firing up the grill. Dickk sandwiches for everyone! Been raining to hard to grille here. Temp down to a boring 42. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January. The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA. This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state. Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter. Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384. I don't see any rising heights in the GOA. The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some. I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, puyallupjon said: Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384. I don't see any rising heights in the GOA. The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some. I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again. He’s talking about the super extended extended one. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: For Flatiron: Looks like 2020 finished up as the 9th warmest year on record at OLM. Ho hum. Prior to 2014 there were only 5 warmer years! It was also the 3rd year on record to not feature a low below 20 there (1966, 1999.....analogs?). Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: He’s talking about the super extended extended one. Oh yeah, the one that goes out beyond fairy tale land? Is that available to poor people like me or does it require a subscription? Do you have a link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR. Have to say, that looks almost identical to runs a month ago for early January. In reality, we’re looking at a top tier AL pattern. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, puyallupjon said: Oh yeah, the one that goes out beyond fairy tale land? Is that available to poor people like me or does it require a subscription? Do you have a link? Don’t know and no. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR. Ok. Thanks for the heads up. Yeah. Anything at beyond 384hrs is pretty accurate. I have a Farmer's Almanac book. Let me refer to that for the end of January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.