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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night...

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9696800.png

1st shade of grey for me. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night...

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9696800.png

Congrats man!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I just learned something more about the SSW, and probably most SSWs.  It appears the entire cycle is actually a reversal at the stratospheric level.  In this case the warming / above normal heights at the 10mb level has taken place over Siberia.  The next step is the warm / above normal height area moves directly over the North Pole.  After that it slides into the opposite hemisphere while dramatic cooling / falling heights at the 10mb level takes place over Siberia.  No wonder it causes such a shake up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I like where the GEFS ends up.  Looks about a day faster than earlier runs had indicated for getting out of this mess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A few archived pics in my phone...A frozen but snowless Lake Goodwin in Jan 2004, and a frozen snow covered Moses Lake Dec. 2009. 

7884F834-5524-4894-97CC-141EF3848C61.jpeg

965DC8AB-DF8E-4C04-A85A-FB50C9202E94.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

What was #1 and #2?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z CMCE Day 10-16. Same general progression as the GEFS, but a hair slower. It's coming. I think timing may speed up a bit. Here we go!

floop-cmce-2021010200.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-cmce-2021010200.500h_anom.npac(1).gif

At face value, that’s about as strong a signal you’ll see for an Aleutian Low on a 384 ensemble blend.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What was #1 and #2?

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

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The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII.

Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence.

If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? 

Fascinating either way.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

I knew you were a girl.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII.

Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence.

If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? 

Fascinating either way.

Non-linear seems to be the rule, rather than not. People seem to forget that.

It's not as simple as: if x=y, then a=b ;)

But yes, we shall see what the outcome is. My best guess is that the PNW will eventually (finally) see at least one cold air intrusion. Just how long it lasts and how potent it is, is all up in the air though.

But it's entirely possible though that 45/40 and rain on repeat will happen for the remainder of winter. 😢

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

Yuck!  On to spring!

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Any news on the 00z EPS 10-15 day?

Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet.

Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm.

image.thumb.png.c171bf6297c4473a9452f96da791397f.png

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Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen.

Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen.

Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. 

So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered?

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet.

Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm.

image.thumb.png.c171bf6297c4473a9452f96da791397f.png

25th was likely optimistic on my part. That's really not even close and it's 3ish weeks after the initial stages of the SSW. With pretty solid large scale model agreement at this stage.

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4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered?

Simple explanation is SSW cools/raises equatorial tropopause which, for reasons not well understood, tends to trigger an MJO response in the IPWP sector (which can be a major excursion overwhelming low pass/ENSO signal preceding the SSW).

In reality it’s more than the cooling that affects the forcing, but it’s a significant element in modulating the ITCZ/z-cell structure thru which MJO/tropics communicate w/ extratropics.

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