GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: #blackdogsmattertoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Randy has his wiener out again tonight 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Put it away Randy, noone wants to see that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night... 1st shade of grey for me. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 58 minutes ago, Phil said: NPAC still cooling. Phil, do you think the prolonged nature of this SSW could delay the incoming pattern change? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Put it away Randy, noone wants to see that. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night... Congrats man! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 It’s not earth shattering but the gefs shows a ridge retrograding into the goa. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 00z GEFS is a step in the right direction. Day 10-16. Ridge builds over us, then progressively redevelops shifting offshore. Aleutian low/trough also shifts west. The overall progression seems to favor continuous retrogression possibly. Is it perfect? Not yet. Could it get there? Maybe. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1-10 GIF (North America view) Day 1-10 GIF (North Pacific view) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Nice run! Please verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 I just learned something more about the SSW, and probably most SSWs. It appears the entire cycle is actually a reversal at the stratospheric level. In this case the warming / above normal heights at the 10mb level has taken place over Siberia. The next step is the warm / above normal height area moves directly over the North Pole. After that it slides into the opposite hemisphere while dramatic cooling / falling heights at the 10mb level takes place over Siberia. No wonder it causes such a shake up. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 I like where the GEFS ends up. Looks about a day faster than earlier runs had indicated for getting out of this mess. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 A few archived pics in my phone...A frozen but snowless Lake Goodwin in Jan 2004, and a frozen snow covered Moses Lake Dec. 2009. 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 00z CMCE Day 10-16. Same general progression as the GEFS, but a hair slower. It's coming. I think timing may speed up a bit. Here we go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff. What was #1 and #2? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff. Analog? What were those Winters like for the PNW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z CMCE Day 10-16. Same general progression as the GEFS, but a hair slower. It's coming. I think timing may speed up a bit. Here we go! At face value, that’s about as strong a signal you’ll see for an Aleutian Low on a 384 ensemble blend. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What was #1 and #2? 1950 and 1969 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: At face value, that’s about as strong a signal you’ll see for an Aleutian Low on a 384 ensemble blend. Good thing it's progressively shifting westward, but a touch slower than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What was #1 and #2? Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor. Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol. Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, luminen said: 1950 and 1969 1958 and 83. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII. Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence. If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? Fascinating either way. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Analog? What were those Winters like for the PNW? Guessing not good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: You seem to be struggling to find new material. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor. Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol. Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so I knew you were a girl. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Any news on the 00z EPS 10-15 day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: I knew you were a girl. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII. Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence. If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? Fascinating either way. Non-linear seems to be the rule, rather than not. People seem to forget that. It's not as simple as: if x=y, then a=b But yes, we shall see what the outcome is. My best guess is that the PNW will eventually (finally) see at least one cold air intrusion. Just how long it lasts and how potent it is, is all up in the air though. But it's entirely possible though that 45/40 and rain on repeat will happen for the remainder of winter. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor. Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol. Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so Yuck! On to spring! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Any news on the 00z EPS 10-15 day? Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet. Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet. Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm. Thanks. It'll come. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen. Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 Jesse, you got something to say or are you just going to downvote me endlessly? 1 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen. Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet. Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm. 25th was likely optimistic on my part. That's really not even close and it's 3ish weeks after the initial stages of the SSW. With pretty solid large scale model agreement at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered? Simple explanation is SSW cools/raises equatorial tropopause which, for reasons not well understood, tends to trigger an MJO response in the IPWP sector (which can be a major excursion overwhelming low pass/ENSO signal preceding the SSW). In reality it’s more than the cooling that affects the forcing, but it’s a significant element in modulating the ITCZ/z-cell structure thru which MJO/tropics communicate w/ extratropics. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2021 Report Share Posted January 2, 2021 2020 ended up being quite warm. And quite wet. yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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