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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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36 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good thing it's progressively shifting westward, but a touch slower than the GFS.

They both show a pretty staggering amount of consistency with regard to the overall picture. The jet will probably slacken but strong AL patterns are notoriously hard to break. It’s the alter to when we look at long leads while there’s a long wave blocking pattern upcoming in the short term and declare it locking in. That’s rare. A persistent AL, while not maintaining its upcoming ridiculous strength, is quite often very stable.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

25th was likely optimistic on my part. That's really not even close and it's 3ish weeks after the initial stages of the SSW. With pretty solid large scale model agreement at this stage.

There’s a noticeable fraying of ensemble agreement focused in Pacific sector later in week-2, though. Which tells me that’s the place to watch for a significant flip at some point.

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just let him be. It’s probably how he’s coping. Lol

Jesse likes anything but death ridging so I’m not too worried about him.

Someone should probably keep an eye on Tim, though. 

image.thumb.png.076e616884fc774b7adcc458149370f5.png

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Looks like 46F out here and mostly cloudy with the occasional shower. Pleasant smoke on the porch.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Nothing from me tonight, though I might pop on in a bit to slam down the 06z all at once. Likely nothing too notable anyways! (for now)...

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. period looks pretty snowy out here tonight... very similar to the 12/21 event with cold air coming in on the back side of an AR.    And more favorable timing during the middle of the night.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-9675200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Jesse likes anything but death ridging so I’m not too worried about him.

Someone should probably keep an eye on Tim, though. 

image.thumb.png.076e616884fc774b7adcc458149370f5.png

Its the middle of winter... so my expectations are low.   That same forecast in May would be quite depressing! 

And the devil is in the details that you can't see with those broadbrush forecasts.   There are actually some decent days coming up even though it will likely rain at some point each calendar day.   

Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looks pretty dry out here.

And Thursday and Saturday are totally dry during the day per the 00Z ECMWF... it won't be just non-stop rain after today.   And we have a possible snow event tonight to mix it up!  ;)

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-0064000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-0236800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Moderate rain with a temperature in the upper 40’s. Feels familiar. 

At least 850mb temps should be cooler after today for the next week.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good morning.  Apologize for the slightly off topic question.  My 23 year old daughter is up here form Arizona for the holiday.  She is somewhat of a car nut and picked up this stanced out BMW convertible while she was here.  Her plan is to head out Sunday morning and drive it back to Arizona.  Of course being an old dad I'm worried.  Her plan is to run down I-5 to Los Angles and then cut over.  I worry about her running into snow in that area of I-5 that runs from southern Oregon down into Northern California.  Are any of you familiar with that area?  Do you think if she passes through there on Monday there will be much of a problem?  Her plan at this point is to just travel during daylight hours if possible.  I know there is a lot of knowledge here.  I have been lurking from clear back in the Weather Vane days when I had dial up.  I appreciate any insight you can provide.  Thanks!

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6 minutes ago, Ray said:

Good morning.  Apologize for the slightly off topic question.  My 23 year old daughter is up here form Arizona for the holiday.  She is somewhat of a car nut and picked up this stanced out BMW convertible while she was here.  Her plan is to head out Sunday morning and drive it back to Arizona.  Of course being an old dad I'm worried.  Her plan is to run down I-5 to Los Angles and then cut over.  I worry about her running into snow in that area of I-5 that runs from southern Oregon down into Northern California.  Are any of you familiar with that area?  Do you think if she passes through there on Monday there will be much of a problem?  Her plan at this point is to just travel during daylight hours if possible.  I know there is a lot of knowledge here.  I have been lurking from clear back in the Weather Vane days when I had dial up.  I appreciate any insight you can provide.  Thanks!

Here is snowfall during the day on Monday... she will probably hit some snow down there between Medford and Redding but it should not be too bad.   The heavier snow shown down there is mostly on Mt. Shasta and not on 1-5... although there is one area there where it runs through the heavier band of snow.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-snow_12hr-9804800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is snowfall during the day on Monday... she will probably hit some snow down there between Medford and Redding but it should not be too bad.   The heavier snow shown down there is mostly on Mt. Shasta and not on 1-5.

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-snow_12hr-9804800.png

Thanks Tim.  From just poking around it looks like daytime temps will be above freezing.  Do you know of specific cities (worst areas on that route) we should monitor for weather conditions?  I'm debating on advising her to go I-5 or 101.  There are pluses and minuses for both.  Thanks again!

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Wind!! Have had several gusts rock the house over the last hour. 
Light drizzle and 46.

.01” so far on the day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. period looks pretty snowy out here tonight... very similar to the 12/21 event with cold air coming in on the back side of an AR.    And more favorable timing during the middle of the night.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-9675200.png

Does not look good for my area however. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, Ray said:

Thanks Tim.  From just poking around it looks like daytime temps will be above freezing.  Do you know of specific cities (worst areas on that route) we should monitor for weather conditions?  I'm debating on advising her to go I-5 or 101.  There are pluses and minuses for both.  Thanks again!

There aren't really any cities in that area where the snow is likely to be the most significant.   I am guessing maybe the town of Mt. Shasta CA (elev 3,586) is one area to watch.

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There aren't really any cities in that area where the snow is likely to be the most significant.   I am guessing maybe the town of Mt. Shasta CA is one area to watch.

 

 

Thank you.  That gives me a great starting point.

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Nice to see a wind advisory for the valleys and a snow advisory for the Cascades tonight, at very least.

As has been said by others, the current pattern beats endless death ridging by a long shot. Although it would be great to see things turn colder and snowier at some point this month.

I will say I am a little disappointed the jet won't be as suppressed the first 7-10 days of January as previously advertised on some of last week's runs. What looked to be a 2008 type pattern has morphed into more of a 2006 type pattern.

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Another horrible GFS run. Still no sign of a pattern change. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm sorry its been such a rough start to the year for you Andrew.

Really bothers you when folks point out the obvious doesn't it? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, dolt said:

2021 has started with sweaty ball sacs.

Could not agree more!

On a weather related note, the 12z run is pretty wet!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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