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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FINALLY!  A good GFS run.  Many of us knew it would come, but seeing a good run is very encouraging.  Most things seem to point to the big shift coming in the Jan 15 to Jan 20 period.

Without knowing anything about the background state or anything else... almost everyone could predict that some random 18Z runs of the GFS will be good during the winter.  Every winter.   

Many of us knew it would come?    What does that even mean?   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be some wet snow in places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be a some wet snow in some places.

Jim must have Tim on ignore 😯🤯

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be a some wet snow in some places.

 

I have been posting about this for 3 days now... 

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m... 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9675200.png

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FINALLY!  A good GFS run.  Many of us knew it would come, but seeing a good run is very encouraging.  Most things seem to point to the big shift coming in the Jan 15 to Jan 20 period.

You have to speak it into existence. Glad I could help.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😁

Jim is busy taking a victory lap on the 18Z GFS.

We MUST not allow Jim to feel optimistic. 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Nope, different airmasses at that point but two insanely cold sub vortices of the PV were obviously displaced at that same time. 

Fairbanks was a ridiculous -47/-60 on 1/28/1933 but had warmed to 28/7 by 2/8 (big Alaskan ridge) when the North American PV swung down into our region. That airmass did cover most of the lower 48 though. Dallas had 22/2 on 2/8 and Memphis was 14/6 while Chicago was -6/-19. It was historic in many spots.

Boulder had their latest sub-zero high on record with that. Also had their earliest sub-zero high on record in early December 1932. Lots of blocking that winter.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Every optimistic post by Jim must be countered by a pessimistic post by Tim or the fabric of reality itself will rupture.

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be some wet snow in places.

Snow/rain map for this?

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Every optimistic post by Jim must be countered by a pessimistic post by Tim or the fabric of reality itself will rupture.

Not true... I rarely say anything in response now.   It might happen.    But anyone can predict that the 18Z GFS will tease us every winter.   Its an absolute truth.  :)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I have been posting about this for 3 days now... 

 

Do you mind posting the 18z snow map for this possible little event? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Boulder had their latest sub-freezing high on record with that. Also had their earliest sub-freezing high on record in early December 1932. Lots of blocking that winter.

Are you saying Boulder's earliest sub-freezing high is in December?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Do you mind posting the 18z snow map for this possible little event? 

The last 5 days of the 18Z GFS...  score! 

Side note... the ECMWF shows more snow happening tonight.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_120hr-0992800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The last 5 days of the 18Z GFS...  score! 

Side note... the ECMWF shows more snow happening tonight.

What does the 18z Euro show for you tonight?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The last 5 days of the 18Z GFS...  score! 

Side note... the ECMWF shows more snow happening tonight.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_120hr-0992800.png

Sorry I meant for tonight/tomorrow. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sorry I meant for tonight/tomorrow. 

Snow through 10 a.m. tomorrow per 18Z ECMWF... a little less than the 12Z run which I posted this morning.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-9696800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed or not, but the ECMWF is indicating some impressive CAA later tonight with temps falling well below 40 with heavy precip.  Kind of a lesser version of what happened 10 days ago or so.  Could be some wet snow in places.

It's 46.6F here with southerly winds here, about 14F warmer than it was early afternoon during the Dec 21st event. Places to the N and W of here are also similarly warm. Not sure where all this cold air is going to come from, still well out over the ocean or a product of heavy trailing showers?

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Over 2” of rain today looks like it’s winding down. 2.9” on the month 

You mentioned a few days ago you had like 34" in 2020 and that was below your average. I would have thought you averaged 40+ inches up there. Vancouver Island shadowing must effect you more than I thought?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Over 2” of rain today looks like it’s winding down. 2.9” on the month 

Up to .07” on the day here. 
.33” for the month! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Over 2” of rain today looks like it’s winding down. 2.9” on the month 

Thanks for converting your data for the Americans.   :)

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1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I’ll stay up late tonight to see some flakes fall, looking forward to it.

I think my idea of “heavy rain” has been distorted by what we experienced last mid-December thru February. No memorable rain events this fall or winter so far, will have to see how evening shapes up. 

Yeah... this winter has seemed pretty tame so far.    That first 6 weeks of 2020 were absolutely insane here.  

Hoping for some snow tonight too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Question:

Why was the February 1989 arctic blasts so brief?  The main cold was really only a few days in early February. Whereas, other cold patterns have persisted much longer such as January 1954, 1969, 1996, December 1990, 1996, 2008, and 2016 etc...

What was the difference in the pattern in those years to 1989?

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25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Over 2” of rain today looks like it’s winding down. 2.9” on the month 

Up to 1" on the day here, but also starting to wind down. Seems like these systems often start much earlier up there but clear out at roughly the same time or maybe only slightly before it clears out in Victoria.

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12 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Question:

Why was the February 1989 arctic blasts so brief?  The main cold was really only a few days in early February. Whereas, other cold patterns have persisted much longer such as January 1954, 1969, 1996, December 1990, 1996, 2008, and 2016 etc...

What was the difference in the pattern in those years to 1989?

Later in the year for one. Then I think the ridge moved overhead. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Question:

Why was the February 1989 arctic blasts so brief?  The main cold was really only a few days in early February. Whereas, other cold patterns have persisted much longer such as January 1954, 1969, December 1999, 1996, 2008, and December 2016 etc...

What was the difference in the pattern in those years to 1989?

Probably a push of marine air displaced the arctic air west of the Cascades. I was living in eastern Washington at the time and the frigid conditions lasted a whole week there.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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