January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Back to back runs. Nice to see.

Now its more meaningful... it will be interesting to see if the EPS picks up on something tonight.

[AbbyJr]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

It was triggered by that crazy pattern in Dec 2008. While 1989 was concurrent.

I assume the PV was weaker in December 2008, allowing the -ENSO/+QBO to do its work?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Those Cascades are pretty amazing.  You guys can quit bitching about your SCR.  I have had a whopping 0.00 of rain today.

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Those Cascades are pretty amazing.  You guys can quit bitching about your SCR.  I have had a whopping 0.00 of rain today.

You sound like a whiny little ***** today.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I assume the PV was weaker in December 2008, allowing the -ENSO/+QBO to do its work?

It was strong aloft but tilted with height, and the lower levels were being blasted. That was a bottom-up wave-2 with a stacked Aleutian High all the way from the troposphere to the stratopause.

Might be decades before we see another one like that.

[The Swamp]

[The Swamp]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10.5

[Phil]

It was technically a SSW in 2013 that knocked over the first domino leading to the inception of “the blob”.

Figures it might be a SSW that, likewise, puts an end to the blob. SSTA change over the last 7 days has a legit -PMM signature.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

7 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

You sound like a whiny little ***** today.

You are way off, but ok.  I don't even want the 45-50 degree rain I would have gotten today.  I haven't the need to whine for anything, life is too good to let the weather get me down.  I was just making a statement, good evening to you as well, Jon.

[bainbridgekid]

I wonder when the cold front passed here?

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s a lot of blocking.

Really the only signal that matters in the LR.

[Phil]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Really the only signal that matters in the LR.

I agree.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Really the only signal that matters in the LR.

Anchorage is forecast to have a low temperature of -1 tonight.  What will it be in 2 weeks??  That is the question.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

It was technically a SSW in 2013 that knocked over the first domino leading to the inception of “the blob”.

Figures it might be a SSW that, likewise, puts an end to the blob. SSTA changes over the last 7 days have a legit -PMM signature.

Suddenly, SSWs control everything...

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Suddenly, SSWs control everything...

They can and sometimes do trigger intradecadal climate shifts. Or be the harbingers of them. Always a chicken/egg dilemma there.

In fact, the majority of the “climate shifts” in the Pacific (PMM/PDO) were instigated by SSW events. Not just 2006 and 2013, but also the “great switch” in 1977.

[GeorgeWx]

31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

It won’t get that cold, not with that pathetic block. Gfs always overestimates how cold the air is in the long range. Most of the Arctic air is still in Putin’s backyard during this timeframe.

[Meatyorologist]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Had a tree fall on one of our homes at work. No one hurt, but definitely frightening for the residents. Been having to arrange temporary lodging. I don’t like wind!

Glad nobody got hurt.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I wonder when the cold front passed here?

Heh, I wish cold fronts did that here. Usually the temp spikes and dewpoint plunges thanks to downsloping unless it’s a big dog airmass.

[Meatyorologist]

Solid westward trend in that ridge over the last four GEFS runs. Persistent signal for high latitude blocking as well. Hopefully this is indicative of some kind of imminent pattern shift.

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Suddenly, SSWs control everything...

I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV.

Analogs?

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Solid westward trend in that ridge over the last four GEFS runs. Persistent signal for high latitude blocking as well. Hopefully this is indicative of some kind of imminent pattern shift.

Yep. It's coming.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Underwhelmed indeed. It was just blustery here earlier in the day with the one gust at 30 mph.  Like I posted earlier today the Puget Sound was laying flat down here with a wind advisory in place.  Anyhow, jakerepp got that dog posted right away so feeling better. 

Pfft. Max gust of 48 mph at KBLI. Anything under 50 is not really a windstorm.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Most of the snow here that season came with that little mid February shot.  It’s actually one of my earliest weather memories.  I don’t remember the cold dry blast we had early in the month but I do remember the big mid month snowstorm. Close to 18” here with that. 

I always figured it was a dry blast, but it looks like the Nanaimo - Parksville area had over a foot of snow with the early month blast. Must have been some significant snowsqualls crossing the strait with that one. Coombs reported an 11.3F/9.5F day with 14" of snow on Feb 1, 1989. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Analogs?

Happened during a really crappy winter.

[snow_wizard]

Great GFS run tonight and some ensemble members are following suit.  Nice to see the operational and control both going for legit cold well before the 20th!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Happened during a really crappy winter.

Alright, time to hang the banner. SSW actually stands for "Sham Snow for Weenies" and the pattern will evolve into endless split flow until next October when we'll get a dry blast into the low 40's for highs. Rampant wildfires by late April.

[MossMan]

Down to 40 degrees 

Up to .88” of rainfall on the day. 

[snow_wizard]

We actually have a legit shot at the first significant cold / snow event in the last half of January for the Western Lowlands since 1996.  Pretty big deal if we pull it off.

 

[Deweydog]

Be a shame if the puppies of 2021 were already shelved.  I haven’t even made it to the hound group yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The GEFS control drops to -15 by Jan 17 or 18.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 1.21 for the day... and 1.63 for the month.

Already 30% of the monthly average in just 2 days.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Good Lord... 

Given just how much of a snoozefest this winter has been outside 1 afternoon, I for one am very encouraged to see the models depicting the below pattern. I was hoping (and expecting) to see this start at some point. Look at all that beautiful high latitude blocking, not to mention the Pacific is getting quieted down a bit. Plus it's only the 17th... Don't have to wait till the 20th+ day of January. 

Cold air will work itself out. Let's get the 500mb pattern on the right track at least. 

Edit: The Northern Hemisphere view shows the blocking even better. -PNA, -EPO, -NAO... I mean, come on...

 

 

I totally agree.  All of that high latitude blocking along with the block over the Pacific would be big time cold for us.  That high latitude stuff has tendency to lock things in also.