Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 The GOA ridge will retrograde westward as MJO propagates eastward. Like 2018 and 2019, pattern initially favors the East but becomes increasingly favorable for the West. And this is a major, prolonged wind reversal with a more favorable ENSO/warm pool setup than either of those years.. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, SalemDuck said: Day 15 EPS. Not really good. So far the GFS is the only model showing anything good inside of 15 days. That’s actually a notable shift to more NPAC blocking. Going to take more than 5 seconds to retrograde the NPAC anticyclone lol. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, SalemDuck said: I agree. Inside of the next two weeks is more of my point. I think it’s fairly clear at this point that some sort of blocking is going to take place in the North Pacific. What that leads to is anyone’s guess but potential for a cold and or snowy pattern is there, just a ways out and far from a guarantee A few days ago people were lamenting the fact no models showed NPAC blocking inside 600hrs. Now NPAC blocking is showing up but we’re lamenting the fact it’s not favorably situated (yet). A week from now we’ll be lamenting the lack of moisture in an otherwise frigid airmass, or something adjacent to that. Then when it looks like a January 1950 repeat is in the cards, there’ll be a minor rug pull to a Dec 2008 outcome instead, and everyone will be upset about that. It’s always something. 6 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: A few days ago people were lamenting the fact no models showed NPAC blocking inside 600hrs. Now NPAC blocking is showing up but we’re lamenting the fact it’s not favorably situated (yet). A week from now we’ll be lamenting the lack of moisture in an otherwise frigid airmass, or something adjacent to that. Then when it looks like a January 1950 repeat is in the cards, there’ll be a minor rug pull to a Dec 2008 outcome instead, and everyone will be upset about that. It’s always something. Thank you for basically outlining Andrew’s commentary for the remainder of the month. 2 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s actually a notable shift to more NPAC blocking. Going to take more than 5 seconds to retrograde the NPAC anticyclone lol. Disneyland has a fastpass....we’re spoiled 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Phil said: A few days ago people were lamenting the fact no models showed NPAC blocking inside 600hrs. Now NPAC blocking is showing up but we’re lamenting the fact it’s not favorably situated (yet). A week from now we’ll be lamenting the lack of moisture in an otherwise frigid airmass, or something adjacent to that. Then when it looks like a January 1950 repeat is in the cards, there’ll be a minor rug pull to a Dec 2008 outcome instead, and everyone will be upset about that. It’s always something. Certain forum members are rubbing off on me. The worlds greatest model the GFS will lead the way in this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Phil said: A few days ago people were lamenting the fact no models showed NPAC blocking inside 600hrs. Now NPAC blocking is showing up but we’re lamenting the fact it’s not favorably situated (yet). A week from now we’ll be lamenting the lack of moisture in an otherwise frigid airmass, or something adjacent to that. Then when it looks like a January 1950 repeat is in the cards, there’ll be a minor rug pull to a Dec 2008 outcome instead, and everyone will be upset about that. It’s always something. This one could be fun to revisit in a couple weeks. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, Phil said: The GOA ridge will retrograde westward as MJO propagates eastward. Like 2018 and 2019, pattern initially favors the East but becomes increasingly favorable for the West. And this is a major, prolonged wind reversal with a more favorable ENSO/warm pool setup than either of those years.. When do you think an arctic blast could hit the PNW? Late January or do you think we have to wait until early February? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Turned out to be a halfway decent day. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Turned out to be a halfway decent day. Was surprised to wake up and see some sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: A few days ago people were lamenting the fact no models showed NPAC blocking inside 600hrs. Now NPAC blocking is showing up but we’re lamenting the fact it’s not favorably situated (yet). A week from now we’ll be lamenting the lack of moisture in an otherwise frigid airmass, or something adjacent to that. Then when it looks like a January 1950 repeat is in the cards, there’ll be a minor rug pull to a Dec 2008 outcome instead, and everyone will be upset about that. It’s always something. PNW weenies are a finicky bunch! 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 The cold air at the end of the runs will keep being pushed back, I wouldn’t hold my breath. On to February. GO HAWKS! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Lots of blocking in the long range. Would be nice to break away from the hyperactive storm track for a bit. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? 2 2 3 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? Your wife just singlehandedly saved winter!!!!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? Good sign. She wants you to go buy a snow blower or something to remove the feet of snow we're expecting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? Superb planning on the part of your son. Rehang the shovel and your wife breaks it. Diabolical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? My interpretation: Garage=weather Xmas Crap=TWL interpretation of model runs snow shovels=EPS your son=Tim your wife=also Tim the blade=election results in Georgia OR snow potential unsure 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Good sign. She wants you to go buy a snow blower or something to remove the feet of snow we're expecting. I don’t think she cares. She walked in and said “I broke one of your beach toys.” I guess she had a point since we’ve only had shovel-worthy snow here twice since 2010. I don’t think she’s onboard. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? Guess you should get her a back up camera and a snow shovel for Valentine’s Day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Guess you should get her a back up camera and a snow shovel for Valentine’s Day. I asked the same thing. She said she was looking in the right side mirror at the boxes waiting to go up into the attic. Boxes that were eight feet from the side of her car. 1-800-DIVORCE Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: My interpretation: Garage=weather Xmas Crap=TWL interpretation of model runs snow shovels=EPS your son=Tim your wife=also Tim the blade=election results in Georgia OR snow potential unsure This stuff is so complicated... Is the wall mount the SSW? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, iFred said: You probably won’t need it until 2028 or ‘29. You’ve got time. We’re toying again with the idea of moving so it might be moot. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: It is nearly shocking how warm it's been east of the Cascades the last couple of days. It's cooler on this side than it is over there, and some places had snow below 1000 feet in this area last night. I can't imagine such a torch over there going unanswered by a major cold wave later on given the base state. We still exchange emails with the people who bought our house in Fruitland (good samaritan type of thing for questions they might have about quirks with the place, since it's light years away from civilization) and they recently emailed asking if it's normal for large amounts of snowfall followed by a melt off. I replied telling them that even though this is quite abnormally high temps for this time of year, they haven't even scratched the surface of winter over there yet. I added that January - February into early March is typically when old man winter exhales his breath. I suggested they count their blessings because every winter we lived there, around this time, there was between 1-2 feet of snowpack in the front yard and it's not uncommon for there to be nearly 4 feet of measurable snow before melt off. They have a 50 hp tractor with a plow attachment so they should be good to go. Having grown up and lived the majority of my life in the south puget sound of western Washington I can honestly say that dealing with mass amounts of snowfall every winter is a giant PITA. I prefer the occasional snow storm that graces western Washington with it's presence and then melts off just as fast. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Some pretty bleak runs today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll leave this up to everyone’s interpretation: I was doing some rearranging in the garage as Xmas crap was being stowed away. As a result, one of our snow shovels was moved (by my son!) then fell off the wall mount. My wife then returned home a little while ago from social distancing practice and proceeded to back over it (retrograde, if you will) and broke the blade. Good or bad sign??? You changed your avatar.... Did your sense of intellectual sarcasm also go away? I hope not. My random lurks and logins here are typically motivated by my curiosity as to what comical passive sarcastic remarks Deweydog has been posting. It's large part of the camaraderie that appears to hold this forum together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Guess you should get her a back up camera and a snow shovel for Valentine’s Day. My wife refuses to use the backup camera...She “doesn’t trust it and it’s stupid”. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, crf450ish said: You changed your avatar.... Did your sense of intellectual sarcasm also go away? I hope not. My random lurks and logins here are typically motivated by my curiosity as to what comical passive sarcastic remarks Deweydog has been posting. It's large part of the camaraderie that appears to hold this forum together. 2021 is all about positivity and puppies!!! I think this little guy is looking longingly at the Yukon for some frigid temps... 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Coldest morning of the year...at 41. At least the low dropped below the average high... Mild and spring-like this afternoon, 52. Daffodils coming soon! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Sh*t ton of cold finds it’s way to Hudson’s Bay on the 18z. Of course the Aleutian Low Pressure Factory (not to be confused with C and C Music Factory) also stays in business despite Inslee’s draconian restrictions. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 2021 is all about positivity and puppies!!! I think this little guy is looking longingly at the Yukon for some frigid temps... Hmmmmmm 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, MossMan said: My wife refuses to use the backup camera...She “doesn’t trust it and it’s stupid”. Lol, she seems to be more trouble than she's worth. Good luck. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Lol, she seems to be more trouble than she's worth. Good luck. She is a fiery one! But a good one! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 The current radar loop is reminiscent of an incoming overrunning event. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z GEFS Day 10-16. Some improvement noted with both the mean ridge axis and Aleutian low further west as well as a bit of a southeast US ridge. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GEFS Day 10-16. Some improvement noted with both the mean ridge axis and Aleutian low further west as well as a bit of a southeast US ridge. C'MON!!!! Could be some big model runs tonight! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 A disgustingly dry and mild 53/42 day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The current radar loop is reminiscent of an incoming overrunning event. It really is. Unfortunately that's all we'll have that's remotely close to a snow event this winter. 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, MossMan said: Could be some big model runs tonight! For Maine, yes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: For Maine, yes. Booooo! Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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