TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 50 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: I agree! People look at their weather apps and think it's going to rain 24/7 or about that for 7-10 days. In reality, most of the daylight hours Tuesday and Thursday aren't looking too bad. Yeah... Phil's phone app shows the same conditions today and Thursday. But those days will be very different. Its not even close. The rain symbol fits perfectly for today but makes no sense on Thursday. Today on top and Thursday on the bottom... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Day 16 of the GEPS is pretty similar to the GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Might also get a dry weekend day on Saturday... when the Seahawks host the Rams in the playoffs. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z Euro appears to try to paint a weak overrunning setup over the Portland area Sunday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Might also get a dry weekend day on Saturday... when the Seahawks host the Rams in the playoffs. Already put my $ on the Rams ML. Should be a nice afternoon. 1 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Some genuine dominoes starting to fall! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Day 16 of the GEPS is pretty similar to the GEFS Getting there! At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Getting there! At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there. I'm starting to wonder if my last week of January forecast may be pushed back to the beginning of February for arctic air in the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve. ouch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve. ouch That’s pretty much the expected outcome. It’s the backside of the western ridging most are eyeing. Good chance we see some retrogression occur. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve. ouch It at least looks like we'll break away from the incessant rain. Mountain snow is running well above normal, and the next ten days will only add to their totals substantially. Plus, west coast ridging can be the catalyst to snowier patterns around our part of the country. At the very least, shaking up the pattern a tad would improve our chances. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’m starting to think the SSW is more of a non story than anything this year. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 While it would have been nice to score snow in November-Jan time frame, February has been our golden month the past couple years. No reason to think we won't score then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’m having a big lunch and just a snack for dinner. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 EPS weakens the Aleutian low signal quicker than last nights 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Can’t we just nuke the hell out of the AL to shake up the pattern? Read up on it and it’s notoriously hard to get rid of. It have a semi-permanent effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Isn't the AL what also has helped get rid of the blob this year though? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Aleutian low is finally gone by day 13 on the EPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I might sound like Tim but...... I miss the sun 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I might sound like Tim but...... I miss the sun Did you see it at all yesterday? It was quite nice up here! Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Improvement at the end of the 12Z EPS... 4 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Much better EPS run. Clear retrogression, quicker elimination of the Aleutian low. Good things lie ahead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 End of 12z EPS. Jet go bye bye. 4 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Improvement at the end of the 12Z EPS... Tim is back, just Andrew and Jim left. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Partly cloudy here with plenty of blue in the sky. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Partly cloudy here with plenty of blue in the sky. Still pouring here like it has been doing all morning. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 A little better than 3/4” of rain here this morning. Skies are starting to clear now though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW. I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly. From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him. I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW. I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly. From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him. You’re gonna drive yourself nutty over this. There is no clear answer. Weather is chaotic. 9 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 As snowless as this winter has been down in the lowlands so far, it's been great for the North Cascades. Mount Baker already has had a couple feet more snow than they did during the entire horrendous '14-15 winter and have had about half their average yearly snowfall. ~320" so far (current depth at 4,000ft of 135") compared to a yearly average of ~650" Of course we'll have to see how the rest of the season plays out, but the last time they had this much snow by the new year was '16-17 when they got 866" for the season. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. He's right in that a SSW can in fact enhance the cold during a pattern change. But I'm not convinced he's correct in saying that SSW's are not the drivers of pattern changes. I have a hard time imagining such a massive shakeup to the atmosphere by annihilating the Polar Vortex would not result in at least some kind of pattern change. But I could be wrong. But its my understanding that experts would in fact say that SSW's do drive pattern changes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Partly cloudy here with plenty of blue in the sky. Sounds utterly lovely. 8C heavy rain here all day so far. Very dark outside. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, luminen said: Sounds utterly lovely. 8C heavy rain here all day so far. Very dark outside. I would prefer cold and snow but I’ll definitely go on a walk after I eat lunch. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW. I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly. From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him. #1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. #2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. #3: wait. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: You’re gonna drive yourself nutty over this. There is no clear answer. Weather is chaotic. I read this after writing my post. Pretty much a faster way to express my similar opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: #1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. #2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. #3: wait. SSW is God and you cannot change my mind!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: #1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. #2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. #3: wait. His response to me was very similar to this. I stand corrected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: His response to me was very similar to this. I stand corrected. I am certainly no expert. Just voicing my opinion. I’m sure the SSW does affect weather patterns, it just may not be clear to us yet how it will affect things. Who are you talking to? Someone on Twitter, a public figure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) EDITED: I had the one from last week by mistake Edited January 4, 2021 by Brian_in_Leavenworth wrong day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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