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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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50 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I agree!  People look at their weather apps and think it's going to rain 24/7 or about that for 7-10 days.  In reality, most of the daylight hours Tuesday and Thursday aren't looking too bad.

Yeah... Phil's phone app shows the same conditions today and Thursday.    But those days will be very different.    Its not even close.   The rain symbol fits perfectly for today but makes no sense on Thursday.

Today on top and Thursday on the bottom...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-9804800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-0064000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Might also get a dry weekend day on Saturday... when the Seahawks host the Rams in the playoffs.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-0236800.png

Already put my $ on the Rams ML. Should be a nice afternoon.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Day 16 of the GEPS is pretty similar to the GEFSimage.thumb.png.9e766093714d129a174da5e6e3fe0160.png

Getting there!

At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Getting there!

At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there.

I'm starting to wonder if my last week of January forecast may be pushed back to the beginning of February for arctic air in the PNW.

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For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

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3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

That’s pretty much the expected outcome. It’s the backside of the western ridging most are eyeing. Good chance we see some retrogression occur.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

It at least looks like we'll break away from the incessant rain. Mountain snow is running well above normal, and the next ten days will only add to their totals substantially. Plus, west coast ridging can be the catalyst to snowier patterns around our part of the country. At the very least, shaking up the pattern a tad would improve our chances.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I might sound like Tim but...... I miss the sun

Did you see it at all yesterday? It was quite nice up here!

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Partly cloudy here with plenty of blue in the sky. 

Still pouring here like it has been doing all morning. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW.

I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly.

From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him.

I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW.

I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly.

From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him.

You’re gonna drive yourself nutty over this.  

There is no clear answer.  Weather is chaotic.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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As snowless as this winter has been down in the lowlands so far, it's been great for the North Cascades. Mount Baker already has had a couple feet more snow than they did during the entire horrendous '14-15 winter and have had about half their average yearly snowfall.

~320" so far (current depth at 4,000ft of 135") compared to a yearly average of ~650"

Of course we'll have to see how the rest of the season plays out, but the last time they had this much snow by the new year was '16-17 when they got 866" for the season.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. 

He's right in that a SSW can in fact enhance the cold during a pattern change. But I'm not convinced he's correct in saying that SSW's are not the drivers of pattern changes.

I have a hard time imagining such a massive shakeup to the atmosphere by annihilating the Polar Vortex would  not result in at least some kind of pattern change. But I could be wrong.

But its my understanding that experts would in fact say that SSW's do drive pattern changes.

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10 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So somebody just said that SSW's are not a driver of pattern changes. Rather, they can enhance the cold during a pattern change. He went on to say that its a fallacy to think this ongoing SSW will result in a favourable pattern for the PNW.

I'm trying to figure out whether I'm clueless on how SSW's work or whether he is just being silly.

From my understanding, he would be hard pressed to find an expert that agreed with him.

#1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. 
 

#2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. 
 

#3: wait. 

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11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

#1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. 
 

#2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. 
 

#3: wait. 

SSW is God and you cannot change my mind!!!!

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21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

#1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. 
 

#2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. 
 

#3: wait. 

His response to me was very similar to this. I stand corrected. 😀

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

His response to me was very similar to this. I stand corrected. 😀

I am certainly no expert. Just voicing my opinion. I’m sure the SSW does affect weather patterns, it just may not be clear to us yet how it will affect things. 
 

Who are you talking to? Someone on Twitter, a public figure?

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