Jump to content

January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m still on this fascinating February 2018 kick, but it is so fascinating to see how dramatic of a shift the EPS took in just one day. Not saying we will see a repeat...But...

*DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT CURRENT JANUARY 2021 MAPS!* 

1D3A1B18-416D-4608-A298-11A262C73292.jpeg

D3AE4692-5954-46E5-AC41-09A722488AD3.jpeg

I didn't know you were a model techy guy.  Good work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

If you are planning to move across the country anyways... why not pick a more reliably snowy area like Minneapolis or the UP of Michigan?

Indianapolis is tropical compared to those places.

Funny you mention Michigan. Some of the ski areas on the Upper Peninsula still aren't open yet. Mt. Bohemia averages 273" a year and is currently hoping to open sometime between January 15th and 22nd. 😳

https://www.mtbohemia.com/current-conditions/

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I didn't know you were a model techy guy.  Good work.

I’m not...At all...But thanks! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tell you it is hard being over in the winter wonder land for ten days and come home to the mud and gunk. Even for over there it's been a mild winter. Saturday it was 36 degrees and that is very warm there for January.  If it wasn't such a long drive I'd have no problem with any of my friends on the forum camping on the property for some winter medicine.  

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Funny you mention Michigan. Some of the ski areas on the Upper Peninsula still aren't open yet. Mt. Bohemia averages 273" a year and is currently hoping to open sometime between January 15th and 22nd. 😳

https://www.mtbohemia.com/current-conditions/

Wimpy!

I have two nephews in Minnesota on their high school ski team and that have been skiing since early November.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps.

 

500h_anom.na (6).png

We need to back that AL out a bit more, but yeah. I've seen worse. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sick of hearing about the February 2018 recap yet? 
Well sorry you get more anyway! 
Wow the further I get into the pre February 2018 madness the more I see the models struggled HARD! The EURO on the 10th said NO to any cold air source even though the 500mb setup was favorable. It showed a high of 49 degrees at my house on the 20th so 10 days out...In reality the transmission linkage on my truck was in cased in frozen rock hard ice that day that was slush when driving in a foot of wet snow on the 18th. I did not get above freezing that day. 

C6A8ED78-20DF-46B2-BC36-D831F0EC781E.jpeg

  • Like 3

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We only had 3” of total snow back in February 2018...but I’d be very happy of a repeat of that. Generally I’m happy if we get atleast 1-2” of snow per winter. Even last Winter we managed 2” of snow in January and February hopefully we can atleast get some type of event greater than 1”. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models really have gotten a lot better. Last 6 runs of the GEFS all show the same general idea at day 13. Pretty impressive consistency for that far out.

 

 

b30d55eb-d5c5-452c-a2c0-8a6c153977fe.gif

  • Like 2

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Here we are 3 days closer.  Still looking at the 16th for pattern change Rob???  LOL.

You sounded just like this in February 2018 as well! And Justin was 1000% not on board either...Things are looking good!!! 

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Couple of stats on this winter so far at my location. Only 5 freezes, hasn’t dipped below 30 yet. Just a trace of snowfall, only one sub 40 high temp. Atleast at this point last winter we had a snow event coming. Picked up 0.5” on 1/9 and 1.0” on 1/14. We had 10 freezes by this point last winter and we had hit 25 already as well with a couple nights in the 20s. Normally my location isn’t so great for cold anomalies and snow but still pretty bleak so far this year even for this location. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sick of hearing about the February 2018 recap yet? 
Well sorry you get more anyway! 
Wow the further I get into the pre February 2018 madness the more I see the models struggled HARD! The EURO on the 10th said NO to any cold air source even though the 500mb setup was favorable. It showed a high of 49 degrees at my house on the 20th so 10 days out...In reality the transmission linkage on my truck was in cased in frozen rock hard ice that day that was slush when driving in a foot of wet snow on the 18th. I did not get above freezing that day. 

C6A8ED78-20DF-46B2-BC36-D831F0EC781E.jpeg

Good stuff Randy and I appreciate it.  Keeps things in perspective 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half.  
There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it.

need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half.  
There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it.

need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap

Exactly my thoughts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half.  
There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it.

need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap

This is true, but you're never going to see that on a blended ensemble mean that far out.

Pretty clear signal for some form of offshore ridging in the 12-16 day period with colder air finally building into Canada. All we can really say at this point is it gives us our first real potential of the Winter for something worthwhile starting around the 22nd.

  • Like 2

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half.  
There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it.

need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap

Yup. We need 564dam or > over Anchorage.

 

Looking at all 12z ensembles show that timing is moving ahead with initial ridge developing overhead or just offshore and retrogression a notch faster, which is always encouraging. EPS fluctuating with amplification compared to the GEFS, GEPS(also known as CMCE). Mean block axis position with all ensembles is roughly the same though. Baby steps that hopefully will progress into Toddler trots(c)Rob 2015?

00z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Models really have gotten a lot better. Last 6 runs of the GEFS all show the same general idea at day 13. Pretty impressive consistency for that far out.

 

 

b30d55eb-d5c5-452c-a2c0-8a6c153977fe.gif

I’m still struggling with whether this is better.  I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises.  Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance.

Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts.

  • Like 5

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m still struggling with whether this is better.  I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises.  Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance.

Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts.

Real forecasts versus modeled trends.  Not something we worried about back in the 80's.  I actually miss the days of not knowing with better than 50% certainty what tomorrow would bring.  I lived it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Not being a jerk, but it looks like things are still 14+ days away as they were a few days ago.  Do you dispute this?

It’s moved up in time. The signal has only gotten stronger but you can continue to be intellectually dishonest if that makes you happy.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...