Winterdog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m still on this fascinating February 2018 kick, but it is so fascinating to see how dramatic of a shift the EPS took in just one day. Not saying we will see a repeat...But... *DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT CURRENT JANUARY 2021 MAPS!* I didn't know you were a model techy guy. Good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: If you are planning to move across the country anyways... why not pick a more reliably snowy area like Minneapolis or the UP of Michigan? Indianapolis is tropical compared to those places. Funny you mention Michigan. Some of the ski areas on the Upper Peninsula still aren't open yet. Mt. Bohemia averages 273" a year and is currently hoping to open sometime between January 15th and 22nd. https://www.mtbohemia.com/current-conditions/ Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: I didn't know you were a model techy guy. Good work. I’m not...At all...But thanks! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Even Tulsa has had more snow this winter than Indy. Even Jeju Island at 33N will have more snow than Portland/Seattle/Vancouver in just a few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 An October-ish 45.8 degrees out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I tell you it is hard being over in the winter wonder land for ten days and come home to the mud and gunk. Even for over there it's been a mild winter. Saturday it was 36 degrees and that is very warm there for January. If it wasn't such a long drive I'd have no problem with any of my friends on the forum camping on the property for some winter medicine. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Here is my brother's place we built. Still needs finished inside but they have been going up on weekends and relaxing. The garage door is a triple pane door that opens the living room for some fresh air. 8 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Funny you mention Michigan. Some of the ski areas on the Upper Peninsula still aren't open yet. Mt. Bohemia averages 273" a year and is currently hoping to open sometime between January 15th and 22nd. https://www.mtbohemia.com/current-conditions/ Wimpy! I have two nephews in Minnesota on their high school ski team and that have been skiing since early November. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps. EDIT: Dewey is right. The 6z had 570 heights at the very end. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps. We need to back that AL out a bit more, but yeah. I've seen worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps. I think the 06z showed some 570’s out in psychedelic range as well. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like our March graupel shower is ON!!! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps. Just copy and paste it where it needs to be to help it along 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Rainy gray day with some light wind .18 for the day so far and 3.32 for the month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: First run to show 560 heights into Alaska. Baby steps. EDIT: Dewey is right. The 6z had 570 heights at the very end. GFS V16 has a much more robust block 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Sick of hearing about the February 2018 recap yet? Well sorry you get more anyway! Wow the further I get into the pre February 2018 madness the more I see the models struggled HARD! The EURO on the 10th said NO to any cold air source even though the 500mb setup was favorable. It showed a high of 49 degrees at my house on the 20th so 10 days out...In reality the transmission linkage on my truck was in cased in frozen rock hard ice that day that was slush when driving in a foot of wet snow on the 18th. I did not get above freezing that day. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Good research Randy! Definitely important to remember that sometimes we don't see things coming until its almost here. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 We only had 3” of total snow back in February 2018...but I’d be very happy of a repeat of that. Generally I’m happy if we get atleast 1-2” of snow per winter. Even last Winter we managed 2” of snow in January and February hopefully we can atleast get some type of event greater than 1”. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Another look at the GFS-para 18z. Pretty. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Here we are 3 days closer. Still looking at the 16th for pattern change Rob??? LOL. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Models really have gotten a lot better. Last 6 runs of the GEFS all show the same general idea at day 13. Pretty impressive consistency for that far out. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Here we are 3 days closer. Still looking at the 16th for pattern change Rob??? LOL. You sounded just like this in February 2018 as well! And Justin was 1000% not on board either...Things are looking good!!! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Couple of stats on this winter so far at my location. Only 5 freezes, hasn’t dipped below 30 yet. Just a trace of snowfall, only one sub 40 high temp. Atleast at this point last winter we had a snow event coming. Picked up 0.5” on 1/9 and 1.0” on 1/14. We had 10 freezes by this point last winter and we had hit 25 already as well with a couple nights in the 20s. Normally my location isn’t so great for cold anomalies and snow but still pretty bleak so far this year even for this location. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Here we are 3 days closer. Still looking at the 16th for pattern change Rob??? LOL. Didn’t take you long to go back to your old self. Got any conference calls we should know about ? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, MossMan said: Sick of hearing about the February 2018 recap yet? Well sorry you get more anyway! Wow the further I get into the pre February 2018 madness the more I see the models struggled HARD! The EURO on the 10th said NO to any cold air source even though the 500mb setup was favorable. It showed a high of 49 degrees at my house on the 20th so 10 days out...In reality the transmission linkage on my truck was in cased in frozen rock hard ice that day that was slush when driving in a foot of wet snow on the 18th. I did not get above freezing that day. Good stuff Randy and I appreciate it. Keeps things in perspective 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy said: Didn’t take you long to go back to your old self. Got any conference calls we should know about ? Not being a jerk, but it looks like things are still 14+ days away as they were a few days ago. Do you dispute this? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half. There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it. need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half. There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it. need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap Exactly my thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half. There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it. need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap This is true, but you're never going to see that on a blended ensemble mean that far out. Pretty clear signal for some form of offshore ridging in the 12-16 day period with colder air finally building into Canada. All we can really say at this point is it gives us our first real potential of the Winter for something worthwhile starting around the 22nd. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Here we are 3 days closer. Still looking at the 16th for pattern change Rob??? LOL. That was the 16th to 20th. Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: That was the 16th to 20th. Yes. Looks like some retrogression starting around the 18th........let's see if that holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Timmy said: Didn’t take you long to go back to your old self. Got any conference calls we should know about ? And didn't you hear. I now just morse code Mark Nelsen via submarine and tell him to pick up his dixie cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Still looks to me second half of January will be colder than normal , question remains if it will be cold enough to offset the mild first half. There’s too much stretching of the imagination going on....just seeing some light orange colors over Alaska and light blue over Montana ain’t going to cut it. need white hot/red hot blob right over Anchorage, not over some forsaken container ship at 48N 150W to get real cold vs this fake cold frosty krap Yup. We need 564dam or > over Anchorage. Looking at all 12z ensembles show that timing is moving ahead with initial ridge developing overhead or just offshore and retrogression a notch faster, which is always encouraging. EPS fluctuating with amplification compared to the GEFS, GEPS(also known as CMCE). Mean block axis position with all ensembles is roughly the same though. Baby steps that hopefully will progress into Toddler trots(c)Rob 2015? 00z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Models really have gotten a lot better. Last 6 runs of the GEFS all show the same general idea at day 13. Pretty impressive consistency for that far out. I’m still struggling with whether this is better. I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises. Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance. Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’m still struggling with whether this is better. I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises. Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance. Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts. Real forecasts versus modeled trends. Not something we worried about back in the 80's. I actually miss the days of not knowing with better than 50% certainty what tomorrow would bring. I lived it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 At this stage, even a spell of fake cold would be a major improvement. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Looks like some retrogression starting around the 18th........let's see if that holds. GEFS/CMCE shows retrogression begins Day 8.5 to 9 or Jan 13-14th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Not being a jerk, but it looks like things are still 14+ days away as they were a few days ago. Do you dispute this? It’s moved up in time. The signal has only gotten stronger but you can continue to be intellectually dishonest if that makes you happy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 18z GEFS Day 8-16. Hard to not like this. The improvements continue. Best yet. Let's keep the good run-to-run consistency going and also move timing ahead. C'MON!!!! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GEFS Day 8-16. Hard to not like this. The improvements continue. Best yet. Let's keep the good run-to-run consistency going and also move timing ahead. C'MON!!!! This looks great. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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