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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m still struggling with whether this is better.  I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises.  Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance.

Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts.

Okay boomer...

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

It’s moved up in time. The signal has only gotten stronger but you can continue to be intellectually dishonest if that makes you happy.

I am talking about when it "gets" here.  Not when it begins. 

Over the years this has happened many times, 10-15 days out, and has been messed up.  ULL's, AL's, or the ridge decides it only wants to retrogress and give Bozeman, Cheyenne, and Denver the goods.  

Yes, it looks good, but I want to see it hold within 5-7 days, then you got me.

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At the 500MB level we are two weeks away from a favorable pattern.  At the 850 MB level we are still looking for some cold air at that time.  I didn't see any 850 temps below -5 on the 18Z operational even with the pattern reset at 384 hours.  We have often in the past seen a good 500 MB pattern not really produce the goods.  Maybe I'm just being a negative weenie but maybe we should find a pair of glasses with a little less rosy tint to them.

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57 minutes ago, Acer said:

At the 500MB level we are two weeks away from a favorable pattern.  At the 850 MB level we are still looking for some cold air at that time.  I didn't see any 850 temps below -5 on the 18Z operational even with the pattern reset at 384 hours.  We have often in the past seen a good 500 MB pattern not really produce the goods.  Maybe I'm just being a negative weenie but maybe we should find a pair of glasses with a little less rosy tint to them.

Looking at 850mb temps at that range is not a good idea. Not that looking at the long wave pattern at that range is a considerably better idea, but there is at least some skill there.  It’s not the same as chasing weeklies or phantom “blocks” as was happening throughout December.  There is at least bit of a signal for a significant pattern change (ridging followed by some manner of retrogression) in the long range.  Don’t get wound up about the details and let it ride.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looking 850mb temps at that range is not a good idea. Not that looking at the long wave pattern at that range is a considerably better idea, but there is at least some skill there.  It’s not the same as chasing weeklies or phantom “blocks” as was happening throughout December.  There is at least bit of a signal for a significant pattern (ridging followed by some manner of retrogression) in the long range.  Don’t get wound up about the details and let it ride.

You are right but I really like the colors at the 850 level.  🤪

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20 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am talking about when it "gets" here.  Not when it begins. 

Over the years this has happened many times, 10-15 days out, and has been messed up.  ULL's, AL's, or the ridge decides it only wants to retrogress and give Bozeman, Cheyenne, and Denver the goods.  

Yes, it looks good, but I want to see it hold within 5-7 days, then you got me.

Did you not learn the lessons of February 2018???

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

It didn’t look like there was any cold air to tap into in February 2018 either...but that changes extremely rapidly. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It didn’t look like there was any cold air to tap into in February 2018 either...but that changes extremely rapidly. 

So what you are saying is there is a chance!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

“Not much cold air to work with” is why the professional mets pooh-poohed the model consensus showing lowland snow on the Solstice, and thus refused to issue any watches or warnings about it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.png.95d7d84f2992223ee1316504a15f9f46.pngAt 576 hours it looks like things fall into place.  Nice looking block but 576 hours...lol

Whereas that seems to be a million days from now, and at a laughable range, this does similarly follow the progression of previous GFS EXT Ens and Euro Weeklies. Ya never know! C'MON!!!!

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I just wanted to remind everyone that this upcoming pattern change is expected around January 20th at the very earliest. That is still 15 days away. SSW is still in progress so models will struggle. Expect a lot of flip flopping and try not to get emotionally invested in any given solution this far out. That said, trends for the most part are in our favour but details are still very much unclear at this point. 👍

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26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

He's putting together a true greatest hits collection.

If we can pull this off it will be the greatest reverse jinx since Justin in December 2008! I would expect handsome compensation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've never mentioned this before, but I'm rather amazed how many members here can recollect so quickly what events have happened, when they happened, and you have pictures of those events. I think that alone adds a lot to the Forum.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 50 minutes

17 years ago right now it was windy and COLD.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Today’s “windstorm” definitely underperformed in Bellingham so far. Would have never guessed we’re under a high wind warning.

Not much in the way of wind events this winter it seems not even up north. Last 2 years have seemed fairly dull in that aspect. 2 years ago tonight we had a major windstorm here in the south sound. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not much in the way of wind events this winter it seems not even up north. Last 2 years have seemed fairly dull in that aspect. 

There have actually been several days this season that KBLI has recorded gusts in excess of 50 mph, but today was not one of them.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I don't recall receiving any then....

I seem to remember you getting about 2 feet of compensation.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I seem to remember you getting about 2 feet of compensation.

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

On his final radio broadcast Michael Savage said the pessimist is seldom disappointed, but often pleasantly surprised. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On his final radio broadcast Michael Savage said the pessimist is seldom disappointed, but often pleasantly surprised. 

Bingo

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

Certainly worked for 2-25-19.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've never mentioned this before, but I'm rather amazed how many members here can recollect so quickly what events have happened, when they happened, and you have pictures of those events. I think that alone adds a lot to the Forum.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 50 minutes

Alright alright let me try this again. I was off by a year earlier lol. This was taken the day of the Super Bowl 2017. The measurement made the front page of a KOMO news story. 

There's nothing like heavy snow at night. I hope it happens again soon! ❄ 

IMG_-52kmqn.jpg

20170206_045727.jpg

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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1 hour ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.png.95d7d84f2992223ee1316504a15f9f46.pngAt 576 hours it looks like things fall into place.  Nice looking block but 576 hours...lol

Okay this map got to me, I’m drooling now. I changed my prediction, we will see an arctic blast later this month. Best case scenario is something like late January 1969. There was also a big SSW event that winter season. I’m getting more encouraged we can actually get some type of Arctic blast before winter is over after seeing all of the ensembles. As some have mentioned, things can change rather quickly with what models show when SSW events occur and we are seeing that right now. 

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