Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That's the control run, not the mean. Though I wish it were! Ah. I got thrown off by the "Ens" in the top left corner. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Also frightening. These are not 'moderate' Democrats. They are far-left. It is extremely troubling how they are gaining ground across our country with policies that We The People have never been familiar with and are nothing like what our country was founded on. End/ Political discussion. No, really. 00z GEFS in 27 minutes ._. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 00z GFS Day 1-10 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day Rainfall totals 10 Day Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 00z keeps the AL pattern going a little stronger a little longer... 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 21 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: It’s what I used to enjoy until I signed up here! You guys have learned me to live in “model world” and get excited of things that might be . On top of that I fall for it hook line and sinker every time. Sucked in with gifs saying “SCORE” , “ITS HAPPENING” , HOLY BALLZ....yikes” and “I JUST TOLD MY WHOLE FAMILY”........and hour later it’s “WINTER CANCEL”.......Just sick !!! Nothing beats enjoying what is happening right now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Gfs op is massively different at day 12 than prior runs. Gefs will be telling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 00z keeps the AL pattern going a little stronger a little longer... That sucker is tough to break. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 5” in 5 days to start January. We are on a nice consistent pace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Don't drive yourselves crazy analyzing or over analyzing Op runs after Day 7. I don't expect the GEFS to change much if any from previous runs, but we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 00z massively different at day 12. Western ridge gets squashed. If heights keep rising toward Alaska this would clearly be a good thing. On the other hand, the Aleutian Low is also hanging on longer this run which would be a negative. Complex pattern. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 People are right than the Ensembles are the main show, but the 00z Op is definitely a significant improvement in the 12-14 day period. Last 4 runs at day 14: 4 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I agree. Politics should not invade the weather thread. Thank you! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Been a wet evening. 0.46” so far with a lot more coming according to radar. Might go over 4” on the month by midnight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 A significant improvement is snow in my backyard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 And I don’t have any snow. An extra $1400 for booze and blow would help. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 New GFS 6 1 5 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 00z GEFS Day 10 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Pretty decent adiabatic drying/warming going on. 53 up the hill at Larch with a dew point in the mid 20’s. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: New GFS 2 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Port Angeles Special 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Lol was just going to post that. The new GFS is the new king right? ❄ ❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 GEFS Day 11 (Past 4 runs) Well, this seems interesting. Possible ridge merger and possible Kona. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Lol was just going to post that. The new GFS is the new king right? ❄ ❄ Yeah, whatever one shows us want we want to see gets the crown. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: 5˚F? Yeah, whatever, drunk uncle. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 GEFS Day 13 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 5˚F? Yeah, whatever, drunk uncle. Probably won't happen but when I lived in Bellingham, we got down to at least 4.1 degrees in December 2008. And the temps it shows for where I live now are not the coldest I have seen since I moved here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Should be dry for game time Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 GEFS Day 14 Looking good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Probably won't happen but when I lived in Bellingham, we got down to at least 4.1 degrees in December 2008. And the temps it shows for where I live now are not the coldest I have seen since I moved here. Oh, absolutely, such temperatures can happen here. I know the records. But, they’re pretty d*mn rare. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Probably won't happen but when I lived in Bellingham, we got down to at least 4.1 degrees in December 2008. And the temps it shows for where I live now are not the coldest I have seen since I moved here. I hit -2 at my old place west of Smokey Point on 12/20/08 I believe the date was. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: I hit -2 at my old place west of Smokey Point on 12/20/08 I believe the date was. Probably the same night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I hit -2 at my old place west of Smokey Point on 12/20/08 I believe the date was. Wow that is amazing! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I hit -2 at my old place west of Smokey Point on 12/20/08 I believe the date was. Yeah, I can't remember what date it was, but we dropped to 2F here, probably on that same day. By far the coldest we've been here, but the 18" snow depth no doubt helped. Other than that I've dropped into the single digits one other time in the past 13 years. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said: A week long ensemble mean being that anomalous at that range is bonkers. I'm not very familiar with the extended GFS ensemble though. Hopefully tonight's run looks similar. Edit: This is the control run not the ensemble mean but week long anomalies that strong are still pretty incredible. I should have mentioned that I posted it for entertainment purposes. That said, long range models are advertising lots of high latitude blocking. We can only hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Ridge looks a fair amount healthier than previous runs. Looks great if you live in Wisconsin. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2021 Report Share Posted January 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 5˚F? Yeah, whatever, drunk uncle. This is NOT the 18z kind sir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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