January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I know you guys have said that Jan has disappeared as a winter month in the last decade. Look at what it has done in Tahoe. How does this even happen? 

It normally is our snowiest month with a 44" average.

2011 - 7"

2012 - 17"

2013 - 4.5"

2014 - 4"

2015 - 0" (first snowless Jan ever!)

2016 - 32.5"

2017 - 136.5"

2018 - 17"

2019 - 44.5"

2020 - 18"

2020 - (most likely another 0")

I will move to Culver if Tahoe has 0" this January. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, dolt said:

Can't wait until I can move to Florida where they see real winters, unlike this bush league monotony over here. 

Don’t let frozen iguanas drop on you!

[Deweydog]

I blame Trump.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I blame Trump.

Our cold winter has been fraudulently stolen from us. I suppose we should storm the local NWS offices and rummage through their desks.

[AlTahoe]

8 minutes ago, dolt said:

I will move to Culver if Tahoe has 0" this January. 

Hopefully we squeeze something in at the very end of the month but models don't show anything for us so far. We were supposed to be getting 60" this week according to the GFS, CMC, and Euro from last week

[Dave]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Hopefully we squeeze something in at the very end of the month but models don't show anything for us so far. We were supposed to be getting 60" this week according to the GFS, CMC, and Euro from last week

Ignore the models past 7 days. They don't know jack with the SSW effects just starting to emerge. Lots of January left.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, dolt said:

Ignore the models past 7 days. They don't know jack with the SSW effects just starting to emerge. Lots of January left.

ftfy

[The Blob]

Speaking of February 2018...

[The Blob]

[bainbridgekid]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely... he first mentioned it in February 2019.   It was cold then

Never seen the EPS even half as anomalous 300 hours out as it was then.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18 GEFS remains consistent with past runs.  However reliable it is or isnt, it is probably more reliable at that range than the operational.

 

 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Never seen the EPS even half as anomalous 300 hours out as it was then.

Looks good!  Things are starting to come together!!!

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

18 GEFS remains consistent with past runs.  However reliable it is or isnt, it is probably more reliable at that range than the operational.

 

 

That's a strong signal for offshore ridging on an ensemble mean.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I know you guys have said that Jan has disappeared as a winter month in the last decade. Look at what it has done in Tahoe. How does this even happen? 

It normally is our snowiest month with a 44" average.

2011 - 7"

2012 - 17"

2013 - 4.5"

2014 - 4"

2015 - 0" (first snowless Jan ever!)

2016 - 32.5"

2017 - 136.5"

2018 - 17"

2019 - 44.5"

2020 - 18"

2020 - (most likely another 0")

Most likely not another 0"....it's 1/6.

[Deweydog]

On this date:

PDX began its long trip to mid July and an average high of 82 (maybe 83?) degrees.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F with some light rain.

[MossMan]

Currently 39 degrees. 

[BLI snowman]

Quite a damp evening!

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Quite a damp evening!

Another setup where if the air mass was (in this case drastically) colder we’d be in good shape.

[SalemDuck]

Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty 

[Winterdog]

 

26 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty 

I'm sure stoked.

[Timmy Supercell]

It did start lightly snowing just now. Enough to glaze everything, but not really significant. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

44 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty 

GEFS mean continues the same basic pattern for at least two weeks beyond day 16.  Through Feb. 7th for now.

[SalemDuck]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEFS mean continues the same basic pattern for at least two weeks beyond day 16.  Through Feb. 7th for now.

If one is to believe the long range models (euro weeklies and GEFS extended).Weeks 3-5 have constant ridging in the gulf and at times into Alaska. Depending where the ridging sets up it could be awesome or could be a dud.

[SalemDuck]

53 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty 

Crazy control run! This is 1 week later.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Crazy control run! This is 1 week later.

Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. 

And 50's and 60's in the midwest, most likely.  Anchorage perhaps colder than Fairbanks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow that trough digs into Southern California. 

[Winterdog]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Geez, look at all that cold air just to the north that can be tapped into. 

And all only 792 hours away! ️

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

And all only 792 hours away! ️

You sound like me now.  I was trying to be positive :).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. 

Any real data showing performance on the GFS ensembles, say after day 12?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Extended GFS ensemble looks pretty good through the end of the run. 

They do.  Here is the last 22 days.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Insane potential for the first week of February on there. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the GEFS extended, the latest run was a significant improvement over the previous one and at only 288 hours. 

Look at the difference around the Aleutians. That is really nice to see.

It's coming. It will be a question of exactly how cold do we get? Not if the cold happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah! Wednesday night Model Riding! Hosted by: That Bob Grimes guy

Sponsored by: Sprite, Planters mixed nuts

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

The three model runs I've watched over the last week have all been the top three worst. Going to do something else now every six hours!