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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Now that's encouraging. We just need amplification AND yep, I'll say it again, that could become a historic pattern with the huge reservoir of bitter air to our north in Western Canada should we be able to tap into it.

Do you think models are still struggling with the polar vortex disruption? If so I think this next week will be telling 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Aleutian low

image.gif.22a1c080d9fab3ba56016e8874b8a84f.gif

Fun fact, Harrison Ford improvised that when he was sick AF.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just a note about the weeklies, something I have been thinking about.  Not anything major, but I do find it interesting that a lot of sites have the weeklies divided by weeks, as in day 8-14, 15-21, etc.  Seems a bit arbitrary.   Suppose there was an amplified ridge right at the sweet spot days 18-24 (last half of week 3, first half of week 4).  And days 15-17 and 25-28 showed a much lower amplitude ridge, maybe at a different spot.  Each of those 2 weeks (15-21 and 22-28) would show a ridge not that amplified, but it would miss the big ridge right in the middle of those two time periods.

I was thinking about that because the run that I use shows a 5 day average, but for every day after day 5.  Some of those days it looked like the ridge was a bit more amplified that the ones that go by the exact weeks.  

Anyway, there is potential, we won't have the answers until we get there.

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11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just a note about the weeklies, something I have been thinking about.  Not anything major, but I do find it interesting that a lot of sites have the weeklies divided by weeks, as in day 8-14, 15-21, etc.  Seems a bit arbitrary.   Suppose there was an amplified ridge right at the sweet spot days 18-24 (last half of week 3, first half of week 4).  And days 15-17 and 25-28 showed a much lower amplitude ridge, maybe at a different spot.  Each of those 2 weeks (15-21 and 22-28) would show a ridge not that amplified, but it would miss the big ridge right in the middle of those two time periods.

I was thinking about that because the run that I use shows a 5 day average, but for every day after day 5.  Some of those days it looked like the ridge was a bit more amplified that the ones that go by the exact weeks.  

Anyway, there is potential, we won't have the answers until we get there.

Here's the whole loop, It definitely pulses but hard to say if its a strong enough signal for it

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1609977600-1610755200-1613952000-20.gif

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1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Here's the whole loop, It definitely pulses but hard to say if its a strong enough signal for it

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1609977600-1610755200-1613952000-20.gif

Thatd be nice. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Honestly those Euro weeklies look pretty D**n good to me. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like it’s gonna be really wet here mid next week if the gfs is to be trusted. Looks cooler following that maybe some foothill snow. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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27 minutes ago, dolt said:

One regular turkey and one white one in my yard a couple of minutes ago. 

 

20210107_145452.jpg

So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. 

It's almost like being in Kauai! 

Except those are chickens, and it's tropical. 

20180413093048_IMG_3315.JPG

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. 

It's an infestation. I'd support a culling since there are so many and no predators in town. I've counted over 50 at one time in front of my house. They shitt on my car on a regular basis and never shut the fukk up. The white turkey was kind of cool though.

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16 minutes ago, dolt said:

It's an infestation. I'd support a culling since there are so many and no predators in town. I've counted over 50 at one time in front of my house. They shitt on my car on a regular basis and never shut the fukk up. The white turkey was kind of cool though.

My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. 

I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street.

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8 minutes ago, dolt said:

I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street.

Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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49 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

It's almost like being in Kauai! 

Except those are chickens, and it's tropical. 

20180413093048_IMG_3315.JPG

they have hurricane iniki almost 30 years ago to thank for all those chickens too. every chicken coup was demolished there. now they're overrun  😆

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish.

It was a long time ago. I'm thinking late 80's. There might be an archive of a register guard story of it somewhere online. It didn't do too much damage. It took out a few fences and trees and damaged a couple of roofs.

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15 minutes ago, Acer said:

Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow.  🤨

No.  The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s.  And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC.

Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder

 

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System next week could be a pretty wet one. Would rather it head south of here we’ve had plenty of rain recently...but looks like South of Seattle and SW WA could be ground zero for some heavy rain. If that verifies we will be at average rainfall not even halfway through the month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I think you are using that chart incorrectly

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Acer said:

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential 

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25 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

No.  The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s.  And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC.

Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder

 

I was only pointing to the 850’s.  I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day.  I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications.

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4 minutes ago, Acer said:

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

If I offended you, I sincerely apologize.  I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks.  Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong.  My bad..

Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for.  This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days.

image.thumb.png.47434a6debcea618767de03c724e9eae.png

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At least next weekend looks seasonal. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential 

Yesterday’s runs had the best signal for actual amplification any kind of GOA ridging.  They’ve pulled back a bit today both in timing and intensity.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I was only pointing to the 850’s.  I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day.  I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications.

It’s not terribly easy learning how to use and read the models at least you’re trying. Lots of people on here have been doing this for years. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If I offended you, I sincerely apologize.  I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks.  Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong.  My bad..

Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for.  This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days.

image.thumb.png.47434a6debcea618767de03c724e9eae.png

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

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Nice day today with those cold offshore winds.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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7 minutes ago, Acer said:

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

Appreciate it.  On this board there are wishcasters who will take the worst looking model run and think it is a positive sign, and there are the doom and groomers who could have snow falling and temps in the 20s who will find a way to dismiss it.  Human nature.  And trying to kick up some dust is not a bad thing.  At all.  

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3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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