Omegaraptor Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Partly cloudy here now. Back of the front is approaching and looks like clear skies behind it in SW Oregon and now going up the Willamette Valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Now that's encouraging. We just need amplification AND yep, I'll say it again, that could become a historic pattern with the huge reservoir of bitter air to our north in Western Canada should we be able to tap into it. Do you think models are still struggling with the polar vortex disruption? If so I think this next week will be telling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Aleutian low 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, paulb/eugene said: Aleutian low Fun fact, Harrison Ford improvised that when he was sick AF. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just a note about the weeklies, something I have been thinking about. Not anything major, but I do find it interesting that a lot of sites have the weeklies divided by weeks, as in day 8-14, 15-21, etc. Seems a bit arbitrary. Suppose there was an amplified ridge right at the sweet spot days 18-24 (last half of week 3, first half of week 4). And days 15-17 and 25-28 showed a much lower amplitude ridge, maybe at a different spot. Each of those 2 weeks (15-21 and 22-28) would show a ridge not that amplified, but it would miss the big ridge right in the middle of those two time periods. I was thinking about that because the run that I use shows a 5 day average, but for every day after day 5. Some of those days it looked like the ridge was a bit more amplified that the ones that go by the exact weeks. Anyway, there is potential, we won't have the answers until we get there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hillsboro undergoing the Daily Spike™ right now, 53 there. PDX still at 50, clearing has not reached yet it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Just a note about the weeklies, something I have been thinking about. Not anything major, but I do find it interesting that a lot of sites have the weeklies divided by weeks, as in day 8-14, 15-21, etc. Seems a bit arbitrary. Suppose there was an amplified ridge right at the sweet spot days 18-24 (last half of week 3, first half of week 4). And days 15-17 and 25-28 showed a much lower amplitude ridge, maybe at a different spot. Each of those 2 weeks (15-21 and 22-28) would show a ridge not that amplified, but it would miss the big ridge right in the middle of those two time periods. I was thinking about that because the run that I use shows a 5 day average, but for every day after day 5. Some of those days it looked like the ridge was a bit more amplified that the ones that go by the exact weeks. Anyway, there is potential, we won't have the answers until we get there. Here's the whole loop, It definitely pulses but hard to say if its a strong enough signal for it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Here's the whole loop, It definitely pulses but hard to say if its a strong enough signal for it Thatd be nice. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Honestly those Euro weeklies look pretty D**n good to me. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Looks like it’s gonna be really wet here mid next week if the gfs is to be trusted. Looks cooler following that maybe some foothill snow. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 The drunk uncle looks to have improved in days 8-10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 One regular turkey and one white one in my yard a couple of minutes ago. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Who let the sun out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Nice day. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, dolt said: One regular turkey and one white one in my yard a couple of minutes ago. So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. It's almost like being in Kauai! Except those are chickens, and it's tropical. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So many turkeys in Eugene. I was down there on NYE and saw dozens on the drive out to Spencer's. It's an infestation. I'd support a culling since there are so many and no predators in town. I've counted over 50 at one time in front of my house. They shitt on my car on a regular basis and never shut the fukk up. The white turkey was kind of cool though. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 The 18z gefs looks better 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, dolt said: It's an infestation. I'd support a culling since there are so many and no predators in town. I've counted over 50 at one time in front of my house. They shitt on my car on a regular basis and never shut the fukk up. The white turkey was kind of cool though. My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, dolt said: I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street. Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, jakerepp said: It's almost like being in Kauai! Except those are chickens, and it's tropical. they have hurricane iniki almost 30 years ago to thank for all those chickens too. every chicken coup was demolished there. now they're overrun 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish. It was a long time ago. I'm thinking late 80's. There might be an archive of a register guard story of it somewhere online. It didn't do too much damage. It took out a few fences and trees and damaged a couple of roofs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Acer said: Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow. No. The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s. And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC. Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Acer said: Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow. I think you are using that chart incorrectly 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Only 9 days away to the huge pattern change depicted by models a week ago. What say you Rob?? LOL 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 System next week could be a pretty wet one. Would rather it head south of here we’ve had plenty of rain recently...but looks like South of Seattle and SW WA could be ground zero for some heavy rain. If that verifies we will be at average rainfall not even halfway through the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, Timmy said: I think you are using that chart incorrectly There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily. I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart. Simple as that. I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good. Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy. I’m just frustrated with the way things are going. Forgive me for my poor use of the tool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Acer said: There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily. I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart. Simple as that. I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good. Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy. I’m just frustrated with the way things are going. Forgive me for my poor use of the tool. Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: No. The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s. And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC. Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder I was only pointing to the 850’s. I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day. I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Acer said: There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily. I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart. Simple as that. I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good. Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy. I’m just frustrated with the way things are going. Forgive me for my poor use of the tool. If I offended you, I sincerely apologize. I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks. Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong. My bad.. Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for. This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 At least next weekend looks seasonal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential Yesterday’s runs had the best signal for actual amplification any kind of GOA ridging. They’ve pulled back a bit today both in timing and intensity. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: I was only pointing to the 850’s. I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day. I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications. It’s not terribly easy learning how to use and read the models at least you’re trying. Lots of people on here have been doing this for years. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: If I offended you, I sincerely apologize. I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks. Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong. My bad.. Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for. This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days. I’m the one who should be apologizing. I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times. I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust. Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive. When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion. Thanks for the post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Nice day today with those cold offshore winds. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Acer said: I’m the one who should be apologizing. I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times. I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust. Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive. When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion. Thanks for the post. Appreciate it. On this board there are wishcasters who will take the worst looking model run and think it is a positive sign, and there are the doom and groomers who could have snow falling and temps in the 20s who will find a way to dismiss it. Human nature. And trying to kick up some dust is not a bad thing. At all. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 So far last night's extended GEFS run is looking great. Pretty much every hour after the pattern change looks like this: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: I’m the one who should be apologizing. I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times. I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust. Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive. When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion. Thanks for the post. I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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