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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

I remember that.  Not an uncommon scenario either.  Those lows seem to want to move north quite often.  I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast.  Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious.

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I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

 

I remember that well.  It was the weekend of the Beastquake.  That was on a Saturday, the NWS was taking about one of them greatest snowstorms in memory.  Woke up Sunday morning and it all had changed

 It was the NAM that first saw the change and everyone dismissed it.

So models do flip, but that flip was a small scale change as opposed to a flip in the overall hemispheric pattern.  The details of this pattern change may or may not work for the PNW, but a major pattern change is all but assured.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. 

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

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7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

Yeah even though we ended up with 12” of snow that winter...twice our normal average I was still pretty mad about the missed potential of January 2011. Besides that 2010-2011 was a great winter. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

Yeah thats right. I knew it was sometime early last decade. The unexpected ice storm came the following year. 

195572.png?1673757432

 

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8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

Timing looks similar.  And more model agreement.  This was always a mid to late January event.  Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so.  Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts.  

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

Yes, a cold pattern will develop around mid-April then gradually will transition to persistent warm-frontal drizzle over much of Western Washington thru the 4th of July. Meanwhile, Oregon roasts.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Timing looks similar.  And more model agreement.  This was always a mid to late January event.  Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so.  Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts.  

 

 

 

 

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

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Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

It was more of the SSW that we were watching in December 

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6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

Well you're taking about the weeklies.  There wasn't any real support for it.  This potential event has a real SSW event behind it, an event happening now.  And it has model support, not just the weeklies.  All the model ensembles runs that go to day 16 are starting to show it, and the long range GEFS has had it for quite awhile now.  Big difference. 

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I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

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Josh and Matt are NOT on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That being said, there is crazy potential, but it just isn't being moved up yet.  

Members here are a lot like the mainstream media.  Post the map ie; "story"of your preference, and try to will it into fruition.

 

14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

There was never any real model support for anything in December.  Just the weeklies, but nothing else.  No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc.  

And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS.  

You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing.

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1 hour ago, Acer said:

I remember that.  Not an uncommon scenario either.  Those lows seem to want to move north quite often.  I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast.  Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious.

Right nothing better than a low stalling during an arctic outbreak. 

195572.png?1673757432

 

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9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

There was never any real model support for anything in December.  Just the weeklies, but nothing else.  No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc.  

And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS.  

You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing.

Not true, many here were oohing and aahing about La La Land almost a month ago.

Just being a realist here, not trying to start a flame war.  I mean, if you want me to go back and pull stuff from the December thread I can.  I just don't really have the time.

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29 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days.

A forum for the end of the world.

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days.

It isn't fair though.  Is that 10 days going to happen?  The percentages are slim.  I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th.  

I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression.  Things of that nature.  

I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could......

Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities.

I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window.  I will believe it a lot more then.

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9 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

It isn't fair though.  Is that 10 days going to happen?  The percentages are slim.  I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th.  

I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression.  Things of that nature.  

I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could......

Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities.

I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window.  I will believe it a lot more then.

Kinda like how you wishcasted that NWS conference call into existence last December. 
 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

And I did think it was funny.  This is an internet forum is it not?  Let's have some fun, life is good.

We’re not going to forget it, you did it to yourself! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

It isn't fair though.  Is that 10 days going to happen?  The percentages are slim.  I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th.  

I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression.  Things of that nature.  

I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could......

Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities.

I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window.  I will believe it a lot more then.

FFS dude you say this all the time. FYI-EVERYBODY KNOWS WHAT YOU THINK. Just cause the same usual suspects and weather junkies get stoked about 300 hour weather maps doesn't mean any of them think they are verbatim true. They talk about potential. The weather is boring. Some people are optimists. Some look for the light at the end of the tunnel. I shouldn't have to explain this to a grown adult. You're a broken record. If you don't care about anything until the 3-5 day window which, again, you point out constantly - show up here when it's the 3-5 day window. Otherwise - enjoy the ride. If you wanna ride the pessimistic bandwagon there are plenty here who play that role too so you can shadow them.

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16 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

FFS dude you say this all the time. FYI-EVERYBODY KNOWS WHAT YOU THINK. Just cause the same usual suspects and weather junkies get stoked about 300 hour weather maps doesn't mean any of them think they are verbatim true. They talk about potential. The weather is boring. Some people are optimists. Some look for the light at the end of the tunnel. I shouldn't have to explain this to a grown adult. You're a broken record. If you don't care about anything until the 3-5 day window which, again, you point out constantly - show up here when it's the 3-5 day window. Otherwise - enjoy the ride. If you wanna ride the pessimistic bandwagon there are plenty here who play that role too so you can shadow them.

Relax.........you are going to bust a blood vessel or something.

And you don't know my entire history, this goes way back, at least 35 years.  I used to collect the weather page from the Statesman Journal and keep them on my wall, pinned above my bed.  I used to dissect those suckers, looking for any hint of snow, I was sick, real sick.  My brothers and I, high desert Mat one of them, would watch channel 2, 6, 8, and 12, hoping they weren't played at the same time so we could watch all of them.  We would do that from November all the way through March, just hoping to get a taste of snow.  My first real good memory is 1985, I am pretty sure we got a good storm or two, we were in Woodburn at the time.  My mom has pictures of me miserable in my snowsuit.

I am still a recovering wishcaster.  Sometimes I see things that aren't there, sometimes I will wish things into happening.  But with technology today, it really has cheapened things.  We know too much.  It makes me lash out.

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2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Relax.........you are going to bust a blood vessel or something.

And you don't know my entire history, this goes way back, at least 35 years.  I used to collect the weather page from the Statesman Journal and keep them on my wall, pinned above my bed.  I used to dissect those suckers, looking for any hint of snow, I was sick, real sick.  My brothers and I, high desert Mat one of them, would watch channel 2, 6, 8, and 12, hoping they weren't played at the same time so we could watch all of them.  We would do that from November all the way through March, just hoping to get a taste of snow.  My first real good memory is 1985, I am pretty sure we got a good storm or two, we were in Woodburn at the time.  My mom has pictures of me miserable in my snowsuit.

I am still a recovering wishcaster.  Sometimes I see things that aren't there, sometimes I will things into happening.  But with technology today, it really has cheapened things.  We know too much.  It makes me lash out.

Yeah, surprises are more rare these days which sucks. They can still happen though!

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