Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Definitely a bit of a downslope component to tonight’s wind. As of 10 PM [Gorge/Gap Gradient] PDX-DLS: -8.5mb TTD-DLS: -7.1mb [Cross Cascade Gradient] PDX-YKM: -10.8mb PDX-MWH: -9.7mb PDX-GEG: -11.5mb OTH-GEG: -10.8mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Day 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Starting to lose faith folks. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Starting to lose faith folks. El Nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 As soon as I started getting positive things started to fall apart again. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Definitely a bit of a downslope component to tonight’s wind. Story of the winter so far. 00z is is a complete torch and would put us well in the running for warmest January on record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Windy. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: As soon as I started getting positive things started to fall apart again. I figured with Jim’s absence this thing might have a fighting chance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: As soon as I started getting positive things started to fall apart again. Stay negative!!! 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 00z Canadian Ensembles. Day 10-16. Not great. Not bad. It tried to deliver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 I think our time will be mid-February. The PV will be bludgeoned into 1000 tiny fragments and one of those tiny fragments will take up residence near Moses Lake Washington providing a two week stretch of cold pool heaven for those of you living near the gorge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Story of the winter so far. 00z is is a complete torch and would put us well in the running for warmest January on record. Yeah, at the very least it’s gonna be solidly warm, even with a decent last week or so. Hopefully we can get the requisite 60 out of the way next week. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Lots of time still. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Guys so I just got a weathermodels.com subscription. @AcerWe about to be neighbors! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Another SSW event is modelled. Perhaps this is why there is so much flip flopping in that timeframe. When was the last time we saw back to back SSW events? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Stay negative!!! Gonna do the best I can. This blows. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Yeah, at the very least it’s gonna be solidly warm, even with a decent last week or so. Hopefully we can get the requisite 60 out of the way next week. We really haven't seen this in a Nina before. 1999-00 and 1933-34 of course were torchy but with a deeply locked in arctic airmass over AK and NW Canada. Nothing like this winter. And January 2000 looks downright ice age compared to what's coming up, we barely cleared 50 that month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Day 7 NOPE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Guys so I just got a weathermodels.com subscription. @AcerWe about to be neighbors! Howdy neighbor. Pretty to look at but I wouldn't put much stock in that graph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Phil? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Monthly average temps so far: Redding 46.2F Santa Rosa 47.5F Sacramento 48.0F Napa 48.3F Portland 48.6F 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: We really haven't seen this in a Nina before. 1999-00 and 1933-34 of course were torchy but with a deeply locked in arctic airmass over AK and NW Canada. Nothing like this winter. And January 2000 looks downright ice age compared to what's coming up, we barely cleared 50 that month. Pretty bizarre. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Another SSW event is modelled. Perhaps this is why there is so much flip flopping in that timeframe. When was the last time we saw back to back SSW events? Wow. I guess it will be another cold February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: Phil? He fled to his mid winter safe house at high altitudes. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: Howdy neighbor. Pretty to look at but I wouldn't put much stock in that graph. lol I know. Fun to look at though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Guys so I just got a weathermodels.com subscription. @AcerWe about to be neighbors! Once it's past two weeks, it loses resolution. Hence why there is so much snow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Stay positive Andrew! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Phil? He mentioned yesterday that he was going to be climbing Mt. Everest or something like that and cell service might be spotty. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Phil? Hmmm.... he's been pretty quiet. So far it appears the SSW isn't going to do much more than briefly disrupt the PV on this side of the pole. Models have had 8 or 9 days to incorporate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yeah. I'm probably not going to post Day 8-10.... Ah... I dunno. Okay.... Don't look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Looks like we might have a real game of chicken with that AL and climo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just crunched some numbers. In the past 9 winters we have averaged about 10" of snow through January, 23" February 1st and later. Backloaded. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: Looks like we might have a real game of chicken with that AL and climo 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah. I'm probably not going to post Day 8-10.... Ah... I dunno. Okay.... Don't look Do you think if there was a 500mb Height Anomaly for the Hi-Res ECMWF that would be different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Do you think if there was a 500mb Height Anomaly for the Hi-Res ECMWF that would be different? Probably not a great deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Oh well. Better luck next year. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Watching the model runs hoping for something before February 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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