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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh well. Better luck next year. 

That's the spirit! We need Andrew negative, but not enough to mess with the Weather Gods mojo. We need Jim to stay on vacation(Hope you're doing okay). We need Tiger to be on the flip-side, becoming more positive. We need TIM post only the bad EPS maps, nothing good or encouraging. We need Dewey to refrain from dog/puppy pics as over the past several days they have worked against us, not in all ways, but yeah. Randy needs to put a plow on anything he can ride on or in, including the family car. We actually need Jesse to only downvote things he normally wouldn't. Weird. We need Josh to be on more conference calls. Whether in real life, or not. IF you can all pull this off, that might help our chances.

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34 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Guys so I just got a weathermodels.com subscription. 

@AcerWe about to be neighbors!

download (1).png

Just FYI so nobody takes this chart seriously, the resolution must change at 15 days enough to make it think Arlington is at about 2,500 feet elevation.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

So its not a second SSW event but rather the current one modelled to persist longer? That may not be good news for us given the 2-3 week lag after the SSW event peaks. If its prolonged, then we wouldn't be starting the 2-3 lag period until later, further delaying the effects of the SSW. We could run out of time and by the time a favourable 500mb pattern sets up, it could be too late for any meaningful cold. I sure hope this is not the case.

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1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

So its not a second SSW event but rather the current one modelled to persist longer? That may not be good news for us given the 2-3 week lag after the SSW event peaks. If its prolonged, then we wouldn't be starting the 2-3 lag period until later, further delaying the effects of the SSW. We could run out of time and by the time a favourable 500mb pattern sets up, it could be too late for any meaningful cold. I sure hope this is not the case.

We need Phil. Bad time for a vacay. 

When you mentioned a second one I thought I heard something about it and this is what I saw.

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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Seems like we’re banking on February again...last few days of January could still have something though. Patterns on the models aren’t promising for this month though. February Hasn’t been a bad bet the last 15 years. One of these years December and January will come through in a big way the longer time goes by the more the odds increase of something good in those months. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Good Lord...

All this moaning and complaining while we have an EPS run that, at least IMO, doesn't look half bad. In fact, it's a fairly nice improvement from the previous run. 

But I guess I just don't know what to look for... Is the ridge supposed to be directly overhead? Is the blue good?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1252000.png

Only 300+ hrs away...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Good Lord...

All this moaning and complaining while we have an EPS run that, at least IMO, doesn't look half bad. In fact, it's a fairly nice improvement from the previous run. 

But I guess I just don't know what to look for... Is the ridge supposed to be directly overhead? Is the blue good?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1252000.png

That's pretty good and with amplification it could be real good. We want to see the 500mb contours bending around more from the north or northeast, THEN we would pull in major arctic air. C'MON!!!!

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38 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just FYI so nobody takes this chart seriously, the resolution must change at 15 days enough to make it think Arlington is at about 2,500 feet elevation.

Agreed.  I live in snow country, and have been looking at this map for Wenatchee, closest Station to where I live, and these snow maps for cities are useless. 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

The timeframe has always been post 18th-20th of January yet y'all are throwing in the towel when the model run is only out to the 16th?! Doesn't make sense to me.

That EPS run actually was quicker to lower heights over the PNW vs it's previous run. So timing sped up a bit. But that doesn't matter... THIS CLIMATE SUCKS! 

Some people only look at colors on a map, and think that is weather forecasting.  They don't look at the bigger picture, i.e. what is going on with the SSW, historical records of sigma 2 SSW events over Siberia, trends and agreement with all models, etc.  

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The timeframe has always been post 18th-20th of January yet y'all are throwing in the towel when the model run is only out to the 16th?! Doesn't make sense to me.

That EPS run actually was quicker to lower heights over the PNW vs it's previous run. So timing sped up a bit. But that doesn't matter... THIS CLIMATE SUCKS! 

Yeah I’m scratching my head as well, to my untrained eye things still look good for late month like it has been. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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No doubt the EPS is quite pretty tonight.  Way better looking on the evolution than the GFS ensemble.  The control is absolutely epic for favorable blocking by the 20th.  The ECMWF weeklies were the best yet and the control runs on that and the GFS extended ensemble were insane for the final third of the month.

Sorry I've been away, but I can't stand the negativity on here going into these things.  At this point it's really starting to gel so I'm back.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the EPS is quite pretty tonight.  Way better looking on the evolution than the GFS ensemble.  The control is absolutely epic for favorable blocking by the 20th.  The ECMWF weeklies were the best yet and the control runs on that and the GFS extended ensemble were insane for the final third of the month.

Sorry I've been away, but I can't stand the negativity on here going into these things.  At this point it's really starting to gel so I'm back.

Jimmy Fallon Hello GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

A good run and we got Jim back. All is right in the world. Think cold and snow

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The thing I really like about the EPS and it's control is the fact they both show the classic flat ridge off the West Coast / Aleutian High Pressure cell merger leading to the good pattern.  That setup usually works out well for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

100% agree. We have things in our back pocket this time around that we didn't when the weeklies were showing a favorable pattern for mid/end of December, including among other things broad ensemble support for a pattern change. 

A move away from AL to a GOA ridge is pretty clearly in the books. How that shakes out exactly downstream will eventually become known but for now, that's a pretty good first step.

 

 

 

 

Yeah the weeklies teased us in December, and that is part of people's skepticism, I get that.  And honestly Phil didn't help, as he was predicting cold for the 3rd week in December.  Nothing against Phil, nobody is perfect.

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Does this mean it won't snow until February?

I'm guessing snow somewhere in the Jan 18 to Jan 25 period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yeah the weeklies teased us in December, and that is part of people's skepticism, I get that.  And honestly Phil didn't help, as he was predicting cold for the 3rd week in December.  Nothing against Phil, nobody is perfect.

The weeklies upped the ante this time.  The snowfall mean jumped to over 8 inches, with most members showing a pretty good amount.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Jimmy Fallon Hello GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

A good run and we got Jim back. All is right in the world. Think cold and snow

The only reason I was away was to escape the Debbie Downers.  I have felt good about this for a while.  One of my last posts said I'm pegging the Jan 15 to Jan 20 time frame for the big change.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW...It's pretty windy here tonight with a gust to 34 being the top so far.  Looks like a good hard frost tomorrow night behind the cold front.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The control one is one run like the operational. And isn't it run at a lower resolution? Why put so much stock into it?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

BTW...It's pretty windy here tonight with a gust to 34 being the top so far.  Looks like a good hard frost tomorrow night behind the cold front.

What is your freeze count for the year so far?

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The control one is one run like the operational. And isn't it run at a lower resolution? Why put so much stock into it?

I think it's basically the unperturbed ensemble member. So basically a lower resolution Operational model. The mean is definitely a lot more meaningful, but will always be a much more muted version of reality because it's a combination of so many members.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's the spirit! We need Andrew negative, but not enough to mess with the Weather Gods mojo. We need Jim to stay on vacation(Hope you're doing okay). We need Tiger to be on the flip-side, becoming more positive. We need TIM post only the bad EPS maps, nothing good or encouraging. We need Dewey to refrain from dog/puppy pics as over the past several days they have worked against us, not in all ways, but yeah. Randy needs to put a plow on anything he can ride on or in, including the family car. We actually need Jesse to only downvote things he normally wouldn't. Weird. We need Josh to be on more conference calls. Whether in real life, or not. IF you can all pull this off, that might help our chances.

Wait. So this nonsense I said actually worked? I typed this before the EPS! Hmmm! C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 1 hour 14 minutes!

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GFS PNA.png

GFS ensemble keeps further pumping the brakes on significant negative PNA. I wouldn't get my hopes up. We've seen this movie before (1996-2003) and it doesn't end well.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is your freeze count for the year so far?

20 which isn't terrible considering everything.  Usually the second half of the cold season is much more lucrative with a Nina.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think it's basically the unperturbed ensemble member. So basically a lower resolution Operational model. The mean is definitely a lot more meaningful, but will always be a much more muted version of reality because it's a combination of so many members.

With the control member you also want to look for consistency.  The EPS control has ben quite good for a few runs now.  The control on the extended GFS ensemble dropped to -6 PNA on the last update.  There are some indications this could be something special, but we'll have to wait a while to see more evidence.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS PNA.png

GFS ensemble keeps further pumping the brakes on significant negative PNA. I wouldn't get my hopes up. We've seen this movie before (1996-2003) and it doesn't end well.

The EPS has a lot better look to it, and is supposedly a superior ensemble.  I will admit the GFS suite of models has been disappointing, except for the GFS extended ensemble on the latest update.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GEM PNA.png

GEM also slows the -PNA happening and the control is not consistent there...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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