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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

So what. My opinion has changed greatly since then. I have wisened up and realized that there is no benefit whatsoever to winter torching.

I’m sure you’ll find nothing whatsoever to complain about in Bozeman 😘 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point it is almost time to write off January. 

Going to be between the 25th of Jan and 10th of Feb.  You know as well as i do the pattern will cave and change.  It still blows my mind the lack of cold onshore flow in the last 5 years. My place can do good with cold onshore and overrunning fronts Like 07 08.   I'd really liike to see something good in the December 10th through Jan 25th just for the Low sun angles.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I guess until something shows up in the believable range, we’re just gonna have to deal with the pendulum.

At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints.  And vague might be a slight overstatement.  Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints.  And vague might be a slight overstatement.  Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack.

Hopefully things will get back on track.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing?

Why do people even look at them?

This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question.

It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence.

Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days?

For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding.

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. 

Need to take this up with TigerFallsOmegadrew.

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6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing?

Why do people even look at them?

This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question.

It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence.

Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days?

For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding.

 

Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing?

Why do people even look at them?

This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question.

It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence.

Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days?

For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding.

 

This forum is not based on facts or reality. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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15 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing?

Why do people even look at them?

This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question.

It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence.

Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days?

For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding.

 

I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All kidding aside i really feel like we will get hammered good around the end of the month and probable sooner. It will happen in the models fast. 

Same thing happened two years ago...

Some were pretty much writing winter off (later so in January than we are now), and then things shook up pretty quickly. 

(I know nobody needed a reminder, but it feels good to type it out)

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm.

Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again.

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3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days.

It might not be as bad as some would think. There is pretty much always something meteorologically interesting happening, especially with all of the microclimates around here.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again.

I think we have a block set aside for that early next week.  Let me know if you want me to pencil you in.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. 

There is no room for a voice of reason on this forum, how dare you.

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This is a very strong signal for NPAC blocking and a western trough 15 days out on the 12z EPS.

861283697_ScreenShot2021-01-08at12_49_03PM.thumb.png.dbba499ce9e292650388f15744f7f26c.png

 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I know everyone is in 'the sky is falling' mode, but the EPS is quietly continuing to get better.

12z run is better than 00z which was better than yesterday's 12z. This isn't even the best frame but wanted to go under 300 hours to spare the "ITS ALWAYS 300+ HOURS OUT" responses.

 

2021-01-08 11_45_10-Window.png

But, but, but . . .  The PNA is still not negative until hour 498!!  ALWAYS hour 498!!!

image.png.421c390c7cf08f31291993b45b037e31.png

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This does have a Feb 2019 vibe to me but a couple of weeks earlier. Will be interesting to see if it has similar staying power. Extended long range guidance has been indicating once (if) the pattern sets up it could be with us for a while once again.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This does have a Feb 2019 vibe to me but a couple of weeks earlier. Will be interesting to see if it has similar staying power. Extended long range guidance has been indicating once (if) the pattern sets up it could be with us for a while once again.

EPS does look good and it has for a couple days now we just need the timing to move up.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Tim has the EPS been consistent? 

It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as that period comes into view.    

EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as it comes into view.    

EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned.

Hopefully it continues and the other models jump on board too. The runs do remind me of February 2019 but I’d be happy with just a bit of snow doesn’t need to be a 2019 re-do! 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as it comes into view.    

EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned.

And of course Feb.2019 came after a major SSW event in Siberia, just like this.

And the EPS is consistent with what we have seen in the weeklies lately.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hopefully it continues and the other models jump on board too. The runs do remind me of February 2019 but I’d be happy with just a bit of snow doesn’t need to be a 2019 re-do! 

Nah, We don’t need a re-do of 2019. We need better than! Feb. record is 35”+ for Seattle... let’s go for it. 

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

EPS does look good and it has for a couple days now we just need the timing to move up.

This seems to be the common misconception here. The timing has been moving up. The NPAC blocking signal first showed up on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended well beyond day 15 a couple of weeks ago. We're just now entering the period where the 15 day ensembles can see it now.

I think we have quite a few eager beavers on here that were hopeful that it was going to happen sooner!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And of course Feb.2019 came after a major SSW event in Siberia, just like this.

And the EPS is consistent with what we have seen in the weeklies lately.

There are talks of the second SSW event for late Jan. in the forecast. It may very well put us in a prolonged icebox until spring! (Probably unrealistic)  We’ll see! 

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