Omegaraptor Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Reminds me of inane cold. Chapped lips and donut holes. So what. My opinion has changed greatly since then. I have wisened up and realized that there is no benefit whatsoever to winter torching. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: The ensemble trend has been pretty unmistakable and unfortunate... I guess until something shows up in the believable range, we’re just gonna have to deal with the pendulum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: So what. My opinion has changed greatly since then. I have wisened up and realized that there is no benefit whatsoever to winter torching. I’m sure you’ll find nothing whatsoever to complain about in Bozeman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At this point it is almost time to write off January. Going to be between the 25th of Jan and 10th of Feb. You know as well as i do the pattern will cave and change. It still blows my mind the lack of cold onshore flow in the last 5 years. My place can do good with cold onshore and overrunning fronts Like 07 08. I'd really liike to see something good in the December 10th through Jan 25th just for the Low sun angles. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1347551010617761795?s=21 Well, this is gonna throw the models into a fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: I guess until something shows up in the believable range, we’re just gonna have to deal with the pendulum. At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints. And vague might be a slight overstatement. Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints. And vague might be a slight overstatement. Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack. Hopefully things will get back on track. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Even though it’s not ballz to the walls inane, the long range 12z shows a much better pattern than we have endured this month so far. Seasonably chilly at very least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. Need to take this up with TigerFallsOmegadrew. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. This forum is not based on facts or reality. 5 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: This forum is not based on facts or reality. This forum is just a imaginative online world ifred made up. We are all living in his simulation. 1 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: This forum is just a imaginative online world ifred made up. We are all living in his simulation. I am simply one of his sarcastic rants that has gained self awareness. 1 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 All kidding aside i really feel like we will get hammered good around the end of the month and probable sooner. It will happen in the models fast. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: All kidding aside i really feel like we will get hammered good around the end of the month and probable sooner. It will happen in the models fast. Same thing happened two years ago... Some were pretty much writing winter off (later so in January than we are now), and then things shook up pretty quickly. (I know nobody needed a reminder, but it feels good to type it out) 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm. Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days. It might not be as bad as some would think. There is pretty much always something meteorologically interesting happening, especially with all of the microclimates around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 The EPS looks much better than the GEFS does at day 11. I think I'll ride with the EPS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again. I think we have a block set aside for that early next week. Let me know if you want me to pencil you in. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think we have a block set aside for that early next week. Let me know if you want me to pencil you in. Who uses a pencil these day's? WOW 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. There is no room for a voice of reason on this forum, how dare you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Who uses a pencil these day's? WOW I used them quite frequently in 1989. You can thank me later. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 EPS looking better today than the good one last night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 This is a very strong signal for NPAC blocking and a western trough 15 days out on the 12z EPS. 6 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I know everyone is in 'the sky is falling' mode, but the EPS is quietly continuing to get better. 12z run is better than 00z which was better than yesterday's 12z. This isn't even the best frame but wanted to go under 300 hours to spare the "ITS ALWAYS 300+ HOURS OUT" responses. But, but, but . . . The PNA is still not negative until hour 498!! ALWAYS hour 498!!! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Here's the day 6-15 EPS 500mb pattern evolution. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Conflicting meltdowns!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Really hard to complain about this. Ridge strengthening around 155W, Kona low signal, Kamchatka low hugging the coast and a high arctic ridge. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 This does have a Feb 2019 vibe to me but a couple of weeks earlier. Will be interesting to see if it has similar staying power. Extended long range guidance has been indicating once (if) the pattern sets up it could be with us for a while once again. 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Tim has the EPS been consistent? Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kayla said: This does have a Feb 2019 vibe to me but a couple of weeks earlier. Will be interesting to see if it has similar staying power. Extended long range guidance has been indicating once (if) the pattern sets up it could be with us for a while once again. EPS does look good and it has for a couple days now we just need the timing to move up. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Tim has the EPS been consistent? It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as that period comes into view. EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned. 8 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as it comes into view. EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned. Hopefully it continues and the other models jump on board too. The runs do remind me of February 2019 but I’d be happy with just a bit of snow doesn’t need to be a 2019 re-do! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It has... and now showing more retrogression towards the end as it comes into view. EPS sure makes me think something good is going to happen by late January... definitely a 2019 feel as Kayla mentioned. And of course Feb.2019 came after a major SSW event in Siberia, just like this. And the EPS is consistent with what we have seen in the weeklies lately. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Hopefully it continues and the other models jump on board too. The runs do remind me of February 2019 but I’d be happy with just a bit of snow doesn’t need to be a 2019 re-do! Nah, We don’t need a re-do of 2019. We need better than! Feb. record is 35”+ for Seattle... let’s go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: EPS does look good and it has for a couple days now we just need the timing to move up. This seems to be the common misconception here. The timing has been moving up. The NPAC blocking signal first showed up on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended well beyond day 15 a couple of weeks ago. We're just now entering the period where the 15 day ensembles can see it now. I think we have quite a few eager beavers on here that were hopeful that it was going to happen sooner! 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And of course Feb.2019 came after a major SSW event in Siberia, just like this. And the EPS is consistent with what we have seen in the weeklies lately. There are talks of the second SSW event for late Jan. in the forecast. It may very well put us in a prolonged icebox until spring! (Probably unrealistic) We’ll see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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