Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean. I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days. Almost Every control run that goes out far has blown the block up at some point. I’m not super worried about amplification at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 18z looks a little more nina-like in the long range... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, Cloud said: Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! too bad rams don't have a qb (goff or the other guy) or this game would be competitive. can't win playoff games w/o a competent qb. any way....im a long time rams fan....so, go rams! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Timmy said: only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. Looks like a good setup into the last frame to me. Tough to see if it's slowing down though, s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, Timmy said: only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. sure its better than we have now, but not a blocking pattern that is "a step in the right direction" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now. If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up. At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 18z GEFS are much improved 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Signs of another block merge and migration further west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Coldest February since 2019 incoming. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Coldest February since 2019 incoming. If it beats 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Coldest February since 2019 incoming. I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought! 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Currently 42 and cloudy. .30” on the day, 3.42” for the month/year. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought! Yes so would I. We had 52.2" of snow that month. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Here we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Ew. Next. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts D**n... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Last nights GEFS wasn't as good as other runs, but it got better after that. Still running, this is so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Same hour on the ensembles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now. If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up. At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions. That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though. Pretty unusual... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 48/43 0.18” today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Deweydog said: That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though. Pretty unusual... Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. Will duck tape fix it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 38 here and partly cloudy. Had .25” of rain. Waiting for the good stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cjmessling Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69. The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Turned into a beautiful sunny afternoon here once the morning rain moved thru. Not a cloud in the sky this evening with a frigid 35F showing on the Thermometer 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cjmessling said: The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! I had a place up there back in 12/13 winter. That place is probably one of if not the snowiest locations west of the cascades at 1000 feet. This pic here was a 18 hr snowfall. Back in February 1994 they had about 6 feet in 3 days and had to chopper people out. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Tick tock, tick tock. Only 8 days until the monumental pattern change!!!! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Someone needs to let that Pepto through the border crossing 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 39 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Tick tock, tick tock. Only 8 days until the monumental pattern change!!!! 3 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s a twister, it’s a twister! 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! 39 degrees? LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! For the year!!!!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Cjmessling said: The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! Feb 2019 was incredible. 19 days before this picture was taken we had bare dirt in areas. I was taking the dog down to the beach and these two coyotes couldn't jump over the snowbanks to run away. 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Hour 7,920 on the long, long, long range WC model has massive potential. #DEC2021forthewin 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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