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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean.

I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days.

Almost Every control run that goes out far has blown the block up at some point. I’m not super worried about amplification at this point.

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43 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! 

too bad rams don't have a qb (goff or the other guy) or this game would be competitive. can't win playoff games w/o a competent qb. any way....im a long time rams fan....so, go rams! 🙂

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18z is definitely a step in the right direction. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Timmy said:

only if you like a classic nina pattern.  too progressive for meaningful blocking. 

It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. 

sure its better than we have now, but not a blocking pattern that is "a step in the right direction"

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1239003532_500h_anom.na-2021-01-08T161508_732.thumb.png.474f4d4e55b2dbcdb6434294fbff0d58.png

This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now.

If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up.

At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Coldest February since 2019 incoming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Coldest February since 2019 incoming. 

I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought!

Yes so would I. We had 52.2" of snow that month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts

image.thumb.png.a902ab565f4cbad3df962a2f0360facf.png

image.thumb.png.b86aa3bd30b77bbce1b8b4c167c81b4c.png

Ew. Next.

  • lol 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1239003532_500h_anom.na-2021-01-08T161508_732.thumb.png.474f4d4e55b2dbcdb6434294fbff0d58.png

This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now.

If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up.

At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions.

That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though.  Pretty unusual...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though.  Pretty unusual...

Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69.

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

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11 minutes ago, Cjmessling said:

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

I had a place up there back in 12/13 winter.  That place is probably one of if not the snowiest locations west of the cascades at 1000 feet. This pic here was a 18 hr snowfall. Back in February 1994 they had about 6 feet in 3 days and had to chopper people out. 

20121219_110303.jpg

20121219_092918.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 hours ago, SalemDuck said:

Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts

image.thumb.png.a902ab565f4cbad3df962a2f0360facf.png

image.thumb.png.b86aa3bd30b77bbce1b8b4c167c81b4c.png

Someone needs to let that Pepto through the border crossing 

  • lol 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif.f7dcc1e16e9bc3837f9883f514fd44eb.gif

It’s a twister, it’s a twister!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 hour ago, Cjmessling said:

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

Feb 2019 was incredible. 19 days before this picture was taken we had bare dirt in areas. I was taking the dog down to the beach and these two coyotes couldn't jump over the snowbanks to run away. 

20190222_063827.jpg

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