January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[umadbro]

9 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Hour 7,920 on the long, long, long range WC model has massive potential.  #DEC2021forthewin

Conference call

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 3

[TheNewCulverJosh]

My brother told me I have to have a drink every time Rob says the word "potential" on the Facebook forums.  Looks like we are getting drunk tonight!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[MossMan]

Our newest dog that just joined the family in November is acting way to chill about tonight’s model runs. 

[OysterPrintout]

33 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Hour 7,920 on the long, long, long range WC model has massive potential.  #DEC2021forthewin

Fred can we ban CulverJosh VI again? He's not really doing anything particularly horrible this time but let's be fair he's an extremely bad poster. Just an all time poor effort. CulverJosh VII needs to take a long offseason and work on some new material.

[Timmy]

Remember not too long ago when Culver’s drunk posting got him banned for a year?

[Cjmessling]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had a place up there back in 12/13 winter.  That place is probably one of if not the snowiest locations west of the cascades at 1000 feet. This pic here was a 18 hr snowfall. Back in February 1994 they had about 6 feet in 3 days and had to chopper people out. 

Insane!! Yes it is a true snow belt. I always keep my eye out for the forecast up there and try to head over when possible for good snows. Have seen golf ball size(rough estimate ) wet heavy snow on a couple occasions, 8” in late March among other fun snow storms. Beatiful and tranquil area

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, Cjmessling said:

Insane!! Yes it is a true snow belt. I always keep my eye out for the forecast up there and try to head over when possible for good snows. Have seen golf ball size(rough estimate ) wet heavy snow on a couple occasions, 8” in late March among other fun snow storms. Beatiful and tranquil area

Another Puyallup poster, welcome!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

30 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Fred can we ban CulverJosh VI again? He's not really doing anything particularly horrible this time but let's be fair he's an extremely bad poster. Just an all time poor effort. CulverJosh VII needs to take a long offseason and work on some new material.

Sounds fine with me. He must be drunk. I'm not putting up with what? 3 days of his crap towards me. Nope.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

 

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sounds fine with me. He must be drunk. I'm not putting up with what? 3 days of his crap towards me. Nope.

Just block him then...might not matter either way he will probably be gone soon. Then we will see several alt account pop up over the next 3 months. 

[Timmy]

00z gfs has more amplification at least

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Our newest dog that just joined the family in November is acting way to chill about tonight’s model runs. 

What kinda dog

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What kinda dog

Looks like a skunk.  

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What kinda dog

Miniature American Shepherd...Formally the Miniature Australian Shepherd. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Further improvement.

The GEFS, EPS, and GEPS are all getting better little by little.

Yeah buddy! That's what we like to see as we get closer

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's the latest run of the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all centered on the same day.

Pretty dang good consistency for being this far out. I would say there is a very high likelihood of sizable NPAC blocking.

Nice to see them all lining up quite nicely at this range. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The new GFS was pretty close to being great.  Didnt quite get there, but intriguing

[Gradient Keeper]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Josh, you’re banned until next winter. If you show up as MtDiabloMaryLoo then I will rain hellfire upon every IP address you log in with.

It was just some harmless jabbing at me really. It did get a bit annoying, but a lot of people have annoying spurts here. I dunno.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10-16. Better, but again we want to see those 500mb contours bending around to the north or even northeast. Perhaps in 4-5 days the Op runs will begin to show that. Big time arctic air is certainly in large supply in BC/AB/SK to our north/northeast.

[OysterPrintout]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

It was just some harmless jabbing at me really. It did get a bit annoying, but a lot of people have annoying spurts here. I dunno.

I mean yeah he's just a chronic repeat offender and look if you're gonna have a troll trash attitude on here you should at least be looking at the models you know? Post some maps or something. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good signs. Leading up to a big time February.

[Gradient Keeper]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Probably the best looking block shown by the GEFS in a while.

Just tilt it a bit and we score.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Just tilt it a bit and we score.

Said the pinball wizard.

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Feb 2019 was incredible. 19 days before this picture was taken we had bare dirt in areas. I was taking the dog down to the beach and these two coyotes couldn't jump over the snowbanks to run away. 

That is a really cool pic.

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good signs. Leading up to a big time February.

...After an all-time 2nd half of January. 

[Requiem]

10 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I mean yeah he's just a chronic repeat offender and look if you're gonna have a troll trash attitude on here you should at least be looking at the models you know? Post some maps or something. 

Honestly a troll needs to have better material than that as well, he's recycled the same old schtick for a while now. Ever since the days of good ol' DomeBuster and the mysterious NWS contact.

[Link]

This is the point I stop looking and wait to see what the rest of the ocean signals do. If things don't line up you can guarantee a rug pull. "Ladies and Gentlemen please refrain from standing on the GFS rug until it has been cleaned per Covid 19 cleaning policy protocols  Thank you for your understanding.........:)  Now we will go on with our tour......."

[Link]

2 hours ago, Timmy said:

Remember not too long ago when Culver’s drunk posting got him banned for a year?

More like probably on Kratum as it can be just as bad or worse from personal and medical experiences.  Never taken it but people I've learned been messed up just by 'a little bit' which is how it always starts out.  "But all I did was try a little bit when I was young and my parent's weren't watching!"

[Timmy Supercell]

Just under 3" on the ruler this morning, up to 7.5" now for the season.

I'd at around 45" right now in 2017.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks incredibly dry going into mid-January, on pretty much everything. Wunderground and Euro showing no snow in the 10 day.

A couple highs in the upper 40's late next week, close to 50 should melt off any of this pack.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I like where the EPS is going so far.  Improvements over the 12Z

[ShawniganLake]

Frosty tonight  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not ideal, but the same general theme.  Details will make or break and it is too early to know that now.

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS Day 10-16. Better, but again we want to see those 500mb contours bending around to the north or even northeast. Perhaps in 4-5 days the Op runs will begin to show that. Big time arctic air is certainly in large supply in BC/AB/SK to our north/northeast.

This is true, but I really don't think it's possible to ever see that on an ensemble mean at that range. The curves of ridges and troughs will always be too smoothed out to show that kind of tilt, even if it were likely to occur.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EPS says more mountain snow on the horizon for later in the month. Some chilly NW flow. Could be a helluva lot worse.

Nice night. Down to 36F. Maybe we can squeeze in a freeze before the torch.

[Jesse]

Down to 32 and frosty here. Lowest temp of the month/year so far.

[paulb/eugene]

EPS Control run looks acceptable 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 11.5 (Past 4 runs) Perhaps a stronger block and maybe better amplification? I don't know yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp: 31.1 with foggy conditions. It is almost a COLD morning!