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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Another warming event is gaining model support starting about a week from now, which I’m gathering is pretty weird...

 

Yeah this has been going on for past few days now and it's now beginning to gain a lot of momentum. Be really interesting to see how this plays out. 

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1 year ago today we got 0.5” of snow. Few days later we got 1.0”. Although it didn’t live up to the expectations we had...wasn’t a bad event and the first measurable January snow here in 8 years. Maybe we will finally get something memorable here later this month. We should know a lot more soon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I think this will start out with some 1000-1500' snow levels the last week of January, and then we get just pulverized the first 10 days of February. The rest of February should be decent too. This is not going to be some 3 day cold snap. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Probably my snowiest week here was Jan 3-9 2017, 26.4" fell in only 7 days. Too bad only 3/4" fell on New Years, but it dumped at Silver Falls that day I think.

Feb 2019 could have had a couple similar weeks but that month was filled with just a dozen 1-4" inch kinds of days. Still surprised that it was the 2nd snowiest February ever here and no individually big snowstorms happened. The biggest day was 4.8" on 02/26/2019. The biggest snow that winter was 6.2" on 03/10.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Probably my snowiest week here was Jan 3-9 2017, 26.4" fell in only 7 days. Too bad only 3/4" fell on New Years, but it dumped at Silver Falls that day I think.

Feb 2019 could have had a couple similar weeks but that month was filled with just a dozen 1-4" inch kinds of days. Still surprised that it was the 2nd snowiest February ever here and no individually big snowstorms happened. 

It did. We had about 2" on NYE and then 6" on New Year's Day 2017. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm just going to predict a HUGE event to end January so everyone loves me.

Jim is just trying to be positive.  I don’t think he’s actually saying it’s absolutely going to happen.  Lay off a bit.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah this has been going on for past few days now and it's now beginning to gain a lot of momentum. Be really interesting to see how this plays out. 

Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm going to predict a HUGE event to end January so everyone loves me.

Nice!  

If I don't see it happening and I am realistic then you mock me.

If I really think something is coming and say that then you mock me.

Either way... its on you buddy.   I genuinely think something is coming.   My trusty EPS model is strongly telling me that its coming and I tend to believe the EPS.    And I consistently trust the EPS... regardless of which way its going.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jim is just trying to be positive.  I don’t think he’s actually saying it’s going to happen.  Lay off a bit.

Jim likes snow way more than he cares if people like him. Apples and oranges. Nice defense though!

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? 

It's hard to tell, just know that something like this is extremely rare, so there's no way of knowing how it'll behave.  Even guys like Cohen don't know.

What I think will happen is that it'll eventually throw the models into a fit as it is trying to grasp onto the current SSW event. 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think this will start out with some 1000-1500' snow levels the last week of January, and then we get just pulverized the first 10 days of February. The rest of February should be decent too. This is not going to be some 3 day cold snap. 

I agree.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Well you almost went two whole days without picking a fight.  Nice job?

No one's fighting. I do think it's interesting to entertain the idea of how another SSW attempt could further throw things off though. Especially right as the ultra-long range models start to gel for in a favorable way for us.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good weather should benefit the Rams. Aaron Donald is ready to go, Cooper Kupp is back. Could be a very good day. 

rams left tackle is back too. big help. problem is, goff is the qb and he's awful and will, once again, be the reason they lose.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

No one's fighting. I do think it's interesting to entertain the idea of how another SSW attempt could further throw things off though. Especially right as the ultra-long range models start to gel for in a favorable way for us.

You could have just said that.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hope Jesse had a very happy birthday. As he may have noticed, I did not break out the forks and issue a winter cancel. We have a LONG way to go. 

As has been discussed you already canceled winter and once the snow starts my signature will reflect your lies and your PayPal will be smile-filled 

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Was this posted earlier?

1611576000-Jh9mCxzSVCU.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You could have just said that.

You say a lot of things you could have just said outright using sarcasm and humor too. Of course with my history everyone here reads most of what I say in the worst possible light. I suppose that is partially my fault.

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19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? 

I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up.  Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now.  Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW.   It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly.

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was this posted earlier?

1611576000-Jh9mCxzSVCU.png

Good start! 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up.  Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now.  Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW.   It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly.

The blow up factor, both good and bad, will always be higher with such upheaval in the stratosphere.  At least from what I’ve gathered from those who actually know something useful about it.

This double-barreled dynamic seems to be pretty unusual.  Another decent Siberian warming does look fairly likely at this point though.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Acer said:

I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up.  Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now.  Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW.   It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly.

Their assumption is probably that ALL SSW events lead to arctic air going to the East, so a ridge over the PNW (with an AL) would be the mechanism.

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If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes.  I could be very wrong of course.

But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away.

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes.  I could be very wrong of course.

But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away.

Phil has abandoned us.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes.  I could be very wrong of course.

But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away.

This winter has had a ton of extremely high latitude blocking.  A lot of the ensembles have advertised another round of enhancement of the persistent block over the Arctic north of AK during week two.  Rarely if ever seems to teleconnect with any kind of mid latitude blocking episodes and instead promotes a more zonal component.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This winter has had a ton of extremely high latitude blocking.  A lot of the ensembles have advertised another round of enhancement of the persistent block over the Arctic north of AK during week two.  Rarely if ever seems to teleconnect with any kind of mid latitude blocking episodes and instead promotes a more zonal component.

You would expect that tendency to at least suppress the jet (which the models were toying with for early January) but that hasn't worked out too well, at least for our region.

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If the double peak SSW happens it's so rare that anyone has to be guessing at what the effects might be.  My thought is once it's over we get an enhanced effect of what would normally happen over a traditional SSW.  Maybe the second peak will have no effect whatsoever as we have already had the peak and rapid drop cycle.  At this point we have a really nice looking EPS so we are in the running for some winter fairly soon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I just looked through the SSW archives and found both Jan 2004 and Dec 1998 were associated with double peak SSWs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just looked through the SSW archives and found both Jan 2004 and Dec 1998 were associated with double peak SSWs.

December 1998 - it snowed on Christmas eve

January 2004 - The end of December into the first few days of January was epic

195572.png?1673757432

 

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32 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You would expect that tendency to at least suppress the jet (which the models were toying with for early January) but that hasn't worked out too well, at least for our region.

Yeah, that would make sense. It’s almost entirely been cut off from our sensible weather though.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Some friends of ours in SW Germany sent us pictures of SNOW today.

It snowed about a foot in Madrid yesterday. Biggest snowstorm in 50 years.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Worshipping the warm anomalies here in Coos Bay....57F and sunny here.  Usually does the trick to being the cold

My brother lives in Coquille. He’s still getting cold weather crops in his garden. Definitely the banana belt of Oregon. He saw accumulating snow in February 2018,19, and a dusting last March. So being about 10-15 miles inland does allow him to see a little snow too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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