Cloud Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Another warming event is gaining model support starting about a week from now, which I’m gathering is pretty weird... Yeah this has been going on for past few days now and it's now beginning to gain a lot of momentum. Be really interesting to see how this plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I heard you can't trust the models beyond day 5 with one of those on the horizon... Stick with the weeklies instead. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 year ago today we got 0.5” of snow. Few days later we got 1.0”. Although it didn’t live up to the expectations we had...wasn’t a bad event and the first measurable January snow here in 8 years. Maybe we will finally get something memorable here later this month. We should know a lot more soon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Stick with the weeklies instead. I'm just going to predict a HUGE event to end January so everyone loves me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 I think this will start out with some 1000-1500' snow levels the last week of January, and then we get just pulverized the first 10 days of February. The rest of February should be decent too. This is not going to be some 3 day cold snap. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Probably my snowiest week here was Jan 3-9 2017, 26.4" fell in only 7 days. Too bad only 3/4" fell on New Years, but it dumped at Silver Falls that day I think. Feb 2019 could have had a couple similar weeks but that month was filled with just a dozen 1-4" inch kinds of days. Still surprised that it was the 2nd snowiest February ever here and no individually big snowstorms happened. The biggest day was 4.8" on 02/26/2019. The biggest snow that winter was 6.2" on 03/10. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Probably my snowiest week here was Jan 3-9 2017, 26.4" fell in only 7 days. Too bad only 3/4" fell on New Years, but it dumped at Silver Falls that day I think. Feb 2019 could have had a couple similar weeks but that month was filled with just a dozen 1-4" inch kinds of days. Still surprised that it was the 2nd snowiest February ever here and no individually big snowstorms happened. It did. We had about 2" on NYE and then 6" on New Year's Day 2017. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: I'm just going to predict a HUGE event to end January so everyone loves me. Jim is just trying to be positive. I don’t think he’s actually saying it’s absolutely going to happen. Lay off a bit. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: Yeah this has been going on for past few days now and it's now beginning to gain a lot of momentum. Be really interesting to see how this plays out. Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: I'm going to predict a HUGE event to end January so everyone loves me. Nice! If I don't see it happening and I am realistic then you mock me. If I really think something is coming and say that then you mock me. Either way... its on you buddy. I genuinely think something is coming. My trusty EPS model is strongly telling me that its coming and I tend to believe the EPS. And I consistently trust the EPS... regardless of which way its going. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Jim is just trying to be positive. I don’t think he’s actually saying it’s going to happen. Lay off a bit. Jim likes snow way more than he cares if people like him. Apples and oranges. Nice defense though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? It's hard to tell, just know that something like this is extremely rare, so there's no way of knowing how it'll behave. Even guys like Cohen don't know. What I think will happen is that it'll eventually throw the models into a fit as it is trying to grasp onto the current SSW event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think this will start out with some 1000-1500' snow levels the last week of January, and then we get just pulverized the first 10 days of February. The rest of February should be decent too. This is not going to be some 3 day cold snap. I agree. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Jim likes snow more than he cares if people like him. Apples and oranges. Nice defense though! Well you almost went two whole days without picking a fight. Nice job? 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Well you almost went two whole days without picking a fight. Nice job? No one's fighting. I do think it's interesting to entertain the idea of how another SSW attempt could further throw things off though. Especially right as the ultra-long range models start to gel for in a favorable way for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Good weather should benefit the Rams. Aaron Donald is ready to go, Cooper Kupp is back. Could be a very good day. rams left tackle is back too. big help. problem is, goff is the qb and he's awful and will, once again, be the reason they lose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: No one's fighting. I do think it's interesting to entertain the idea of how another SSW attempt could further throw things off though. Especially right as the ultra-long range models start to gel for in a favorable way for us. You could have just said that. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I hope Jesse had a very happy birthday. As he may have noticed, I did not break out the forks and issue a winter cancel. We have a LONG way to go. As has been discussed you already canceled winter and once the snow starts my signature will reflect your lies and your PayPal will be smile-filled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Was this posted earlier? 2 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: You could have just said that. You say a lot of things you could have just said outright using sarcasm and humor too. Of course with my history everyone here reads most of what I say in the worst possible light. I suppose that is partially my fault. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Would this disrupt the blocking pattern or would it enhance it ? I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up. Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now. Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW. It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Was this posted earlier? Good start! Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Acer said: I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up. Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now. Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW. It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly. The blow up factor, both good and bad, will always be higher with such upheaval in the stratosphere. At least from what I’ve gathered from those who actually know something useful about it. This double-barreled dynamic seems to be pretty unusual. Another decent Siberian warming does look fairly likely at this point though. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Acer said: I believe one of the experts on SSW events said that a developing SSW tends to strengthen the likelihood of our old friend AL popping up. Obviously we have had AL around for quite a while now. Hopefully he doesn't return due to the newly building SSW. It seems unlikely that he would return so quickly. Their assumption is probably that ALL SSW events lead to arctic air going to the East, so a ridge over the PNW (with an AL) would be the mechanism. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes. I could be very wrong of course. But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes. I could be very wrong of course. But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away. Phil has abandoned us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Phil has abandoned us. #RIPPhil 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: #RIPPhil The west Maryland ice sheet advanced over the site of his cabin while he was inside scoring his backlog of forecast contests. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: If there is a 2nd SSW event, and there is already in place a lot of high latitude ridging (wherever it is), I would think it would quickly allow the cold air to spill into the lower latitudes. I could be very wrong of course. But I do remember Phil saying that sometimes, after a SSW, it takes a week or two for the cold air to spill south, and other times it happens right away. This winter has had a ton of extremely high latitude blocking. A lot of the ensembles have advertised another round of enhancement of the persistent block over the Arctic north of AK during week two. Rarely if ever seems to teleconnect with any kind of mid latitude blocking episodes and instead promotes a more zonal component. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This winter has had a ton of extremely high latitude blocking. A lot of the ensembles have advertised another round of enhancement of the persistent block over the Arctic north of AK during week two. Rarely if ever seems to teleconnect with any kind of mid latitude blocking episodes and instead promotes a more zonal component. You would expect that tendency to at least suppress the jet (which the models were toying with for early January) but that hasn't worked out too well, at least for our region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Matt is still not on board. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 If the double peak SSW happens it's so rare that anyone has to be guessing at what the effects might be. My thought is once it's over we get an enhanced effect of what would normally happen over a traditional SSW. Maybe the second peak will have no effect whatsoever as we have already had the peak and rapid drop cycle. At this point we have a really nice looking EPS so we are in the running for some winter fairly soon. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 I just looked through the SSW archives and found both Jan 2004 and Dec 1998 were associated with double peak SSWs. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I just looked through the SSW archives and found both Jan 2004 and Dec 1998 were associated with double peak SSWs. December 1998 - it snowed on Christmas eve January 2004 - The end of December into the first few days of January was epic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 32 minutes ago, Jesse said: You would expect that tendency to at least suppress the jet (which the models were toying with for early January) but that hasn't worked out too well, at least for our region. Yeah, that would make sense. It’s almost entirely been cut off from our sensible weather though. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Yeah, that would make sense. It’s almost entirely been cut off from our sensible weather though. Some friends of ours in SW Germany sent us pictures of SNOW today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Some friends of ours in SW Germany sent us pictures of SNOW today. It snowed about a foot in Madrid yesterday. Biggest snowstorm in 50 years. 2 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Worshipping the warm anomalies here in Coos Bay....57F and sunny here. Usually does the trick to being the cold 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: It snowed about a foot in Madrid yesterday. Biggest snowstorm in 50 years. Madrid has a low of 10°F forecast on Monday. That is going to smash records, I’m pretty sure. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Worshipping the warm anomalies here in Coos Bay....57F and sunny here. Usually does the trick to being the cold My brother lives in Coquille. He’s still getting cold weather crops in his garden. Definitely the banana belt of Oregon. He saw accumulating snow in February 2018,19, and a dusting last March. So being about 10-15 miles inland does allow him to see a little snow too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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