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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Cold air makes a beeline from the Bering Sea West of Alaska straight to us on the 00z. This would be a very unusual setup but anything is possible with a gargantuan block like that.

Would definitely be more maritime polar air coming from that direction but what's shown is pretty nutty. About as cold onshore flow as is possible around here.

 

401d4fc8-2bf5-49dd-a374-528689b88c87.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I think that given the lack high latitude blocking on this one, it'll be a more frigid maritime pattern, but it's still something fun to look at. A San Francisco highlands snowfall type of pattern. PSCZ convective accumulations during the night, highs in the thirties. Much like January 2012.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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No, it's not arctic, but if you handed me a button saying, "If you press this, the 00z will verify, and if you don't, it's up to chance," I'd press it in a heartbeat. It's not arctic, but it's not warm, either, and would likely give everyone a shot at some point.

And looking at these further frames coming in, I think it sets us up nicely for a more lucrative second try, as heights more readily build into AK and a cold pool firmly entrenches itself into western Canada.

*edit: nvm the AL reigns supreme, and our precious block is halted at US customs in Anchorage. Still not a bad pattern by any means.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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27 and thick fog. Airport isn't seeing this one, must be localized.

Visibility has gotta be about 1/2 mile here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Somewhat like Jan 1949

Day 14

500h_anom.na.png

Send those higher heights into AK and you'll add yourself another year to that figure... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

221560632_850t_anom.na(2).thumb.png.e53ab544a2810aa9b4706fd1b80213a9.png

Very much a maritime airmass, but the smell of Vodka wafts yet, signaling the presence of a more sinister Arctic plunge not very far upstream...

All-in-all the GEM is much more primed for something that would freeze over Lake Whatcom, and the GFS is your cup of tea if you still want to hear the birds chirping over the splutching sound of water dropping onto a freshly fallen snow in the evening.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Pretty insane GFS run. Let’s get that and then our February 1899 redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

221560632_850t_anom.na(2).thumb.png.e53ab544a2810aa9b4706fd1b80213a9.png

Very much a maritime airmass, but the smell of Vodka wafts yet, signaling the presence of a more sinister Arctic plunge not very far upstream...

All-in-all the GEM is much more primed for something that would freeze over Lake Whatcom, and the GFS is your cup of tea if you still want to hear the birds chirping over the splutching sound of water dropping onto a freshly fallen snow in the evening.

We are very capable of 28 degree snowfall with a polar air mass. Give us some -10 850mb temps and even with onshore flow the snow won't be dripping in the evening. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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We don't need an Arctic plunge to get snow. The GFS 00z was great. We lost the west-based negative NAO to an east-based negative NAO which is better because this shifts the trough axis further west and favors anomalously higher heights over the GOA.

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image.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Holy crap!  A mean of 537 heights over SEA on the 0z GFS ensemble.  This is getting real!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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floop-gefs-2021011000.500h_anom_npac.gif.4cf23bee94085fa552237c01f6f218f6.gif

This GIF really shows the disparity between the two model groups. Notice the core ridge propagating westward. That is the first cluster. Next, look at the heights over the Bering Sea migrating northward. That is the second cluster, showing a more blocky solution. The latter, blockier solution would be more efficient with driving Canadian Arctic cold into the PNW, whereas the former cluster would still cool things down, but not as much.

Both provide snowfall chances, but in order to get a true Arctic blast, we'll need some help up in AK. Thankfully, the mean shows higher than normal heights over AK, so chances are greater than not that we'll see some high latitude blocking. And even with the more "onshore" solution, there's still vodka cold just across the border. Cool potential past ten days.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

It's the long range GFS...

There's a lot more to it than that obviously.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1932991788_850t_anom.npac(5).thumb.png.fba59783943f0ebf33ce3780719dd887.png

Also need to set up the block further east. But there's plenty of time for that to change, and just look at what might be available to us if proper blocking sets up...

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

floop-gefs-2021011000.500h_anom_npac.gif.4cf23bee94085fa552237c01f6f218f6.gif

This GIF really shows the disparity between the two model groups. Notice the core ridge propagating westward. That is the first cluster. Next, look at the heights over the Bering Sea migrating northward. That is the second cluster, showing a more blocky solution. The latter, blockier solution would be more efficient with driving Canadian Arctic cold into the PNW, whereas the former cluster would still cool things down, but not as much.

Both provide snowfall chances, but in order to get a true Arctic blast, we'll need some help up in AK. Thankfully, the mean shows higher than normal heights over AK, so chances are greater than not that we'll see some high latitude blocking. And even with the more "onshore" solution, there's still vodka cold just across the border. Cool potential past ten days.

The bridge forming with the -NAO is going to be our ticket.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

1932991788_850t_anom.npac(5).thumb.png.fba59783943f0ebf33ce3780719dd887.png

Also need to set up the block further east. But there's plenty of time for that to change, and just look at what might be available to us if proper blocking sets up...

I think the North America view gives a better perspective of how nice the pattern being depicted really is.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is a really nice look for an ensemble mean IMHO.

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The bridge forming with the -NAO is going to be our ticket.

That's a tall order, but you're right in the sense that a -NAO could be good for us. Largely, a -NAO isn't the boogeyman it's set up to be for us around here. It's only a problem when proper blocking doesn't set up over AK and that -NAO sends a Canadian express TPV into AK.

In any sense, it's ultimately a -PDO and AK blocking that really drives our patterns.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The pattern being shown obviously sets up a high chance of a low pressure system tracking inland far enough south to nail some of us or maybe all of us with some snow.  Maybe a colder version of Jan 2008 which could be quite awesome.  I still think the -NAO will give us some insurance for true cold though.  FWIW the GFS meteograms spit out a 32 / 27 day late in the run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

image.png

That's what I call getting real.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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