January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So far the EPS is a bit better than last night's.  Heights in Alaska are a bit better and the ridge overall a bit healthier and more robust.  Not hugely different, but better

How does it compare in the 5-10 day range?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we had 0.28" of rain overnight. 6.36" on the month now. We are on pace for an extremely wet January. If things go well over the next few days we could be approaching 10" by mid-week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

How does it compare in the 5-10 day range?

Perhaps a bit quicker to cool it down over the PNW.  Quicker development of the Alaskan ridge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Luv it

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Perhaps a bit quicker to cool it down over the PNW.  Quicker development of the Alaskan ridge. 

That's good. I ask since that period inherently holds more weight than the long range stuff, so it's always good to see improvement bleeding over into the short to mid-range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem is already up to about 4.5" of rain on the month. This week could push them past their total January average. Or at least very close to it. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS is totally on board like previous runs... the last week of January will be memorable.   That is my genuine feeling... from someone who will has no problem saying when it seems unlikely or over-hyped.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks amazing. I love seeing that cold air building in SW Canada too. It does seem like at least this first shot of cold will have quite a bit of maritime influence. As the coldest anomalies are centered west of the Cascades. Alberta looks cold though. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is totally on board like previous runs... the last week of January will be memorable.   That is my genuine feeling... from someone who will has no problem saying when it seems unlikely or over-hyped.

Cold onshore flow.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Cold onshore flow.

Jim.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is totally on board like previous runs... the last week of January will be memorable.   That is my genuine feeling... from someone who will has no problem saying when it seems unlikely or over-hyped.

And this is why people like having TT around.

edit: except apparently Jesse 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Cold onshore flow = late January climo 

*fixed

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

My friends down in Texas are getting a pretty good snowstorm currently. Hoping that it’s our turn soon. They had a dusting of snow on New Years when I was there but looks like they have a lot more than that down where I was. I think we will be seeing some snow up here soon! 

My Mother in law just sent me this pic.  Bastrop, SE of Austin .  Rain just changed over to snow.  She’s happy 

 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Jim.

How do u think it’ll play out?  If you don’t want to say, I understand.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cold onshore flow.

That can be quite memorable in late January.    And I think it might be more than that eventually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do agree with Dewey that right now what is being shown is mostly cold onshore flow, but by the 25th cold is marinating in W. Canada, it's not out of the realm of possibility as early as the last few days of the month a more favorable pattern develops which delivers more meaningful cold to the region. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How do u think it’ll play out?  If you don’t want to say, I understand.

Dunno. The signal for a pattern change to much cooler out around the 7-10 day range is definitely taking shape now. I think stabbing at something specific is still an exercise in futility though. Cold onshore flow certainly looks like the best bet at the onset but beyond that who knows. We've seen cold onshore flow patterns morph into something memorable or go out with a whimper. Ask again in a week.

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That can be quite memorable in late January.    I think it might be more than that eventually.

I suppose, but it’s pretty rare. Hard to think of too many mainly progressive patterns (cold ones) that produce something memorable.  That said, we have some people here with ridiculous memories so you know... I still remember the March 2006 trough like it was yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That can be quite memorable in late January.    And I think it might be more than that eventually.

I think we are somewhat on the same page. January 1996 is getting thrown around a lot. The first half of that month torched pretty bad too. Salem's average high through the 16th was 51.2. A period of cool onshore flow began around the 21st leading up to the arctic blast at the end of the month. I am not sure what the 500mb progression was, but I could see something similar taking shape from an observed weather standpoint. 

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is fully on board now also.  Looks just like the other ensembles during the final third of the month.  In fact the control shows some nice back digging and major cold.  That -NAO is going to play a big role in giving us continental cold if it happens.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suppose, but it’s pretty rare. Hard to think of too many mainly progressive patterns (cold ones) that produce something memorable.  That said, we have some people here with ridiculous memories so you know... I still remember the March 2006 trough like it was yesterday.

Probably a better chance in the Puget Sound area with roaming c-zones.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I suppose, but it’s pretty rare. Hard to think of too many mainly progressive patterns (cold ones) that produce something memorable.  That said, we have some people here with ridiculous memories so you know... I still remember the March 2006 trough like it was yesterday.

That was a chilly one. I can distinctly remember driving down 136th avenue on the way to work at the Cascade Park Safeway and it SNOWING in the middle of the day.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are somewhat on the same page. January 1996 is getting thrown around a lot. The first half of that month torched pretty bad too. Salem's average high through the 16th was 51.2. A period of cool onshore flow began around the 21st leading up to the arctic blast at the end of the month. I am not sure what the 500mb progression was, but I could see something similar taking shape from an observed weather standpoint. 

1996 keeps popping into my head as a possible guide, progression wise, too. Although obviously it could also end up being completely different. The similar calendar timing and ENSO state makes it easy to stand out, though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are somewhat on the same page. January 1996 is getting thrown around a lot. The first half of that month torched pretty bad too. Salem's average high through the 16th was 51.2. A period of cool onshore flow began around the 21st leading up to the arctic blast at the end of the month. I am not sure what the 500mb progression was, but I could see something similar taking shape from an observed weather standpoint. 

Jan 1996 was really good up here.  Even the cold onshore flow pattern gave us snow on a number of days.  I distinctly remember there was legit cold in Whatcom County that bled down to the Seattle area from time to time.  Then of course the late month thing was really nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

1996 keeps popping into my head as a possible guide, progression wise, too. Although it could also end up being completely different. The similar calendar timing and ENSO state makes it easy to stand out, though.

All that low elevation snow that ended up melting in the pineapple express of early February, fell in the 21-28th time period. I remember I got really into calling up to the ranger station at Silver Falls and asking how much snow they had gotten. 

Doesn't mean we'll have a massive undercutting AR in early February, in fact I hope we don't, for obvious reasons. Late February 1996 featured a lot of cold onshore flow too.

[Deweydog]

GFS still bullish with more Siberian warming in the strat starting in about a week...

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably a better chance in the Puget Sound area with roaming c-zones.

High chance of a south tracking low or two also.  To me this looks a notch colder than the mean pattern in Jan 2008.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 1996 was really good up here.  Even the cold onshore flow pattern gave us snow on a number of days.  I distinctly remember there was legit cold in Whatcom County that bled down to the Seattle area from time to time.  Then of course the late month thing was really nice.

About 40 miles south of Portland we had about 3-4" on the 27th, then the arctic front came through on the 29th. Unfortunately most of the snow melted on the 28th when temps got into the low 40s and the Cowboys beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

About 40 miles south of Portland we had about 3-4" on the 27th, then the arctic front came through on the 29th. Unfortunately most of the snow melted on the 28th when temps got into the low 40s and the Cowboys beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. 

Up here we got our big snow with the Arctic front.  It dropped to 9 at my place after the snow.

[Deweydog]

23 years ago right now it was snowing. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I just remember Jan 96 being cold. I don’t remember if we had snow or not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here we got our big snow with the Arctic front.  It dropped to 9 at my place after the snow.

Silverton got down to 12 on back to back days with no snow cover. 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All that low elevation snow that ended up melting in the pineapple express of early February, fell in the 21-28th time period. I remember I got really into calling up to the ranger station at Silver Falls and asking how much snow they had gotten. 

Doesn't mean we'll have a massive undercutting AR in early February, in fact I hope we don't, for obvious reasons. Late February 1996 featured a lot of cold onshore flow too.

That pattern in late February was really impressive.  Still remember how interesting it was to see Eugene score several inches early on the 28th then a high of 50 that afternoon with northerly flow.  

[TT-SEA]

The Snoqualmie Falls station shows a 72/32 day on 2/16/96... did that really happen?

Also shows 6 days in a row at 60+ in that stretch.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 hours ago, GeorgeWx said:

Incoming late January 1969 redux. The first of many runs that will show lots of snow. It’s coming folks. 

Probably not. Not saying it won’t get snowy, but it’s almost certainly not going to be epically snowy.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The Snoqualmie Falls station shows a 72/32 day on 2/16/96... did that really happen?

66 at Gov't Camp at 2/14 and 64 on 2/15. That month started with over 80" of snowpack at Govy, and two weeks later there was only a foot on the ground.

Horse Creek station was 70-75-72-70 for highs on 2/12 through 2/15. Weird that it was on the 16th up there, but it is believable.