Kolk1604 Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm not downplaying anything. The potential is definitely there if we see better amplification with 500mb heights over Anchorage at least 550dam, but 560dam+ is favored. We all know this though. The pattern change with ridge merger/retrogression is popping up before Day 10 on the GEM Op and just about on the EURO Op too, so that's nice to see. Let's see how the next 2-3 days of model runs transpire. Andrew said this earlier, but can't wait for the weeklies tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 thats kold onshore flow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 18z GFS looks really good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Sub 516 thicknesses and -10 850's with onshore flow at the end of the 18z. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: thats kold onshore flow. Seattle is in the dead zone between the Arctic high and Pacific high. That equals snow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Sub 516 thicknesses and -10 850's with onshore flow at the end of the 18z. Seattle is actually flat at the end. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 18z looked good. There is going to be run to run variability this far out, but overall it shows a pattern WAY better than anything we have seen so far this winter. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I can't imagine anyone not being happy with this run. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I can't imagine anyone not being happy with this run. Some very cold onshore flow on day 13. Then obviously it gets even colder by the end. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some very cold onshore flow on day 13. Then obviously it gets even colder by the end. Really nice, and it would be really nice to see this before Day 6. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some very cold onshore flow on day 13. Then obviously it gets even colder by the end. Who doesnt love cold rain? 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 It appears major GOA blocking is pretty much locked in now...at least as much model consensus as you can possibly have at this range. With -NAO expected to continue a solid cold outcome would be pretty hard to avoid. Just my 2 cents. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Sub-522 thicknesses in onshore flow would be good enough for flakes in the air at the very least. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The fact is a legit cold outcome is actually favored after the SSW. I think people are downplaying this too much. Those are some really good ensemble means we're seeing. Just wait. Even with amazing setups, something unexpected can happen, as was the case in January 2020. Clear and very cold nights were a lock right up until the day of. The clouds never left so we were left with some mild lows of -8C here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 This forum just drives me out my skull sometimes. Model runs like these and people aren't happy. 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Mentioned last month that I’ve been keeping tabs on the Asia cold for quite a while and it seemed Seoul, SK reached peak cold couple days ago where they record a -1.5F. Their second coldest in 35 years from Jan. 1986. Of course, I was trying to find some correlation to their cold to ours for downstream effect but can’t really find any. Coincidentally, ‘85-‘86 was one of the snowiest for Seattle with most of it fell during November and then a warm Jan.-Feb. Kinda a pointless post, as I know there’s no connection to what happen in Asia and here, but I’m bored. Lol. Models are looking nice btw. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This forum just drives me out my skull sometimes. Model runs like these and people aren't happy. You should just be you and be happy if that’s what the models are doing for you. You don’t need any acknowledgement from anyone. Allow people to feel how they feel too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This forum just drives me out my skull sometimes. Model runs like these and people aren't happy. I blame Fred. He needs to uncancel winter and make model bashing against the rules! What I like is that we just don't know what will happen. There's so much a play right now with an SSW, maybe a second? Polar vortex disruption, -NAO and a PNA that's about to tank. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Mentioned last month that I’ve been keeping tabs on the Asia cold for quite a while and it seemed Seoul, SK reached peak cold couple days ago where they record a -1.5F. Their second coldest in 35 years from Jan. 1986. Of course, I was trying to find some correlation to their cold to ours for downstream effect but can’t really find any. Coincidentally, ‘85-‘86 was one of the snowiest for Seattle with most of it fell during November and then a warm Jan.-Feb. Kinda a pointless post, as I know there’s no connection to what happen in Asia and here, but I’m bored. Lol. Models are looking nice btw. February 1986 was actually quite good, FWIW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 I for one, am very sad about these model runs. I mean, couldn’t we just get a good old fashioned Arctic front where temps drop through the day with increasing snow? I’m pissed off!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This forum just drives me out my skull sometimes. Model runs like these and people aren't happy. I'm happy that the Pacific air will give us a break. That is the big thing, the pattern change. Anything past that at this point is pure eye candy. Just wait and don't get ahead of yourself. You of all people should know this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: February 1986 was actually quite good, FWIW. Was it really? I was hoping someone would fact check me on this. Perhaps I was looking at something different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 Port Orchard Ford can go straight to hell! I made an appointment to look at a specific car yesterday at 2. I show up early for my appointment today and they’re like ‘oh we might’ve sold It last night’. That would’ve been nice to know before I hauled all the way out there from Edmonds. Clown show 1 4 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some very cold onshore flow on day 13. Then obviously it gets even colder by the end. That looks like a nice setup for my first bigger snow of the season. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Was it really? I was hoping someone would fact check me on this. Perhaps I was looking at something different. Yeah, it was a pretty dynamic battlezone month with a massive AR and historic flooding in northern CA while the PNW traded off between the two branches of the jet stream. There were a number of snow events in the region between Feb. 11-19 and a Fraser River event that dropped Bellingham down to 8. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Port Orchard Ford can go straight to hell! I made an appointment to look at a specific car yesterday at 2. I show up early for my appointment today and they’re like ‘oh we might’ve sold It last night’. That would’ve been nice to know before I hauled all the way out there from Edmonds. Clown show That's because we are slowly loosing the people in the world that have integrity. My dad raised me that when you tell a man or woman something or shake there hand it's a contract. They are a terrible dealership. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, it was a pretty dynamic battlezone month with a massive AR and historic flooding in northern CA while the PNW traded off between the two branches of the jet stream. There were a number of snow events in the region between Feb. 11-19 and a Fraser River event that dropped Bellingham down to 8. That’s actually quite interesting because ‘86-‘86 gave Seattle 20.3”of snow with 17.5” fell in Nov. So the other 3” or so must’ve fell during this period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: That's because we are slowly loosing the people in the world that have integrity. My dad raised me that when you tell a man or woman something or shake there hand it's a contract. They are a terrible dealership. They tried to get me in an identical car with negligibly less miles for $1700 more. I said no way and offered $300 more than the one I originally inquired about. They came down $600 but wouldn’t budge any more. It wasn’t worth the extra $1000. I’m almost to Bellingham to look at a similar one but with the brown leather interior instead. They pulled the car up for me and have it reserved. Much better so far. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2021 Report Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: That’s actually quite interesting because ‘86-‘86 gave Seattle 20.3”of snow with 17.5” fell in Nov. So the other 3” or so must’ve fell during this period. There was some at the beginning of December as well. Then SEA had an inch in February on the 13th, but it was snowier elsewhere as PDX had about 6", OLM had 5", and BLI had 8". Kind of a trade off that winter with SEA generally getting hit the hardest in November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, it was a pretty dynamic battlezone month with a massive AR and historic flooding in northern CA while the PNW traded off between the two branches of the jet stream. There were a number of snow events in the region between Feb. 11-19 and a Fraser River event that dropped Bellingham down to 8. 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: That’s actually quite interesting because ‘86-‘86 gave Seattle 20.3”of snow with 17.5” fell in Nov. So the other 3” or so must’ve fell during this period. November was also the snowiest at this place with 17" that month but only 4" in February. Sounds like those AR's gave us a lot of rainfall in Klamath in 1986. Then 86-87 featured even less snowfall with 7" through all Nov-Feb period. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, Cloud said: Mentioned last month that I’ve been keeping tabs on the Asia cold for quite a while and it seemed Seoul, SK reached peak cold couple days ago where they record a -1.5F. Their second coldest in 35 years from Jan. 1986. Of course, I was trying to find some correlation to their cold to ours for downstream effect but can’t really find any. Coincidentally, ‘85-‘86 was one of the snowiest for Seattle with most of it fell during November and then a warm Jan.-Feb. Kinda a pointless post, as I know there’s no connection to what happen in Asia and here, but I’m bored. Lol. Models are looking nice btw. Nice. There has been some impressive cold in parts of Asia recently, as well as parts of Europe now. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Timmy_Supercell said: November was also the snowiest at this place with 17" that month but only 4" in February. Sounds like those AR's gave us a lot of rainfall in Klamath in 1986. Then 86-87 featured even less snowfall with 7" through all Nov-Feb period. Yeah, 86-87 was a pretty trash winter. Strong Nino fun! There were several really awful winters that decade mixed in with some big-time events. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 February 1986 had a little bit for everyone. Looks like Salem even hit 70 towards the end of the month. Quite a bit of rain too. https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1986&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 On another note, who cares if not everyone is excited by hour 300 on the models. People's excitement level dictates nothing, its a really annoying complaint. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 FWIW the 18z ensembles are not quite as good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 18z GEFS block migrated to the west a bit sooner. It's too far west which gives us chilly onshore flow. Next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 18z Ensembles are a bit less amplified and further West which causes less intense cold air in Southwestern Canada. Still the same general pattern, but definitely not as good as the last couple runs. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I can't imagine anyone not being happy with this run. The only gripe I have is it delays the onset of a meaningfully below average regime, but on the other hand it’s pretty common for big pattern changes to be pushed back a little later than expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: FWIW the 18z ensembles are not quite as good. Andrew someone told me the 18z ensembles aren’t as good. Is this true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Nice. There has been some impressive cold in parts of Asia recently, as well as parts of Europe now. Low -solSSWPDOar doing its thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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