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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By the way. The extended GEFS that just came out is pretty incredible. Very strong signal for below normal heights over the west coast through 00z 2/14. Much stronger anomalies than the previous run. Incredible to see! Very encouraging!

Oh yeah? How is amplification and heights over southern Alaska? Much improved?

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not to further this runway OT conversation about snow, but my wife announced today that she really wants it to snow.  She is at best ambivalent about it after Christmas.  This is a first.  I’m not sure what to make of it.

I've noticed even people who don't like snow tend to get pretty reminiscent about it if there hasn't been much in a few years. By the 2nd or 3rd snow of the year they're usually tired of it though.

I've had exes like that who'd excitedly stay up with me for the first snow of the year. They were much less patient with me in subsequent snows. 😂

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By the way. The extended GEFS that just came out is pretty incredible. Very strong signal for below normal heights over the west coast through 00z 2/14. Much stronger anomalies than the previous run. Incredible to see! Very encouraging!

care to share?

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I've noticed even people who don't like snow tend to get pretty reminiscent about it if there hasn't been much in a few years. By the 2nd or 3rd snow of the year they're usually tired of it though.

I've had exes like that who'd excitedly stay up with me for the first snow of the year. They were much less patient with me in subsequent snows. 😂

Yeah, she was tapped out by this point in 2017.  It was the ridiculous amount of and BS criteria for school cancellations that fueled that fire.

I still remember the first time she saw my full weenie on display (haha).  We started dating early in the fall of 1994. Then came the early December mini-event and she was given a crash course in weather nerd ridiculousness.  She should have wised up and ran for the hills.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, she was tapped out by this point in 2017.  It was the ridiculous amount of and BS criteria for school cancellations that fueled that fire.

I still remember the first time she saw my full weenie on display (haha).  We started dating early in the fall of 1994. Then came the early December mini-event and she was given a crash course in weather nerd ridiculousness.  She should have wised up and ran for the hills.

Did she get "1-3 inches"?🤔

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17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I've noticed even people who don't like snow tend to get pretty reminiscent about it if there hasn't been much in a few years. By the 2nd or 3rd snow of the year they're usually tired of it though.

I've had exes like that who'd excitedly stay up with me for the first snow of the year. They were much less patient with me in subsequent snows. 😂

Explains why they're exes.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Sorry for not posting the GEFS extended. Thank you for posting Brian. Just tremendous potential coming up. They can also be viewed on Tidbits, you just have to go back to the 00z run for the previous day, so for instance these are the 1/10 00z. They are usually ready around 6-7pm I believe. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Explains why they're exes.

My wife will definitely NOT stay up with me to watch snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The week of the big April 2008 snow was date #1 for my now wife and I! We moved in together in late October 2008...She saw MASSIVE weenies from me starting a month later...The rest is history! She doesn’t get my obsession but she does like snow! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sorry for not posting the GEFS extended. Thank you for posting Brian. Just tremendous potential coming up. They can also be viewed on Tidbits, you just have to go back to the 00z run for the previous day, so for instance these are the 1/10 00z. They are usually ready around 6-7pm I believe. 

I have never heard you this bullish before.

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Next weekend has Tim's stamp of approval!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

I have never heard you this bullish before.

It's not a lock. It never is in this climate, but all the available tools we have seem to indicate a much cooler pattern takes hold between the 20-25th and sticks around for a while. Could still fall apart, I remember there was some potential in late January 2018 which totally fell apart, and we had to wait until the second half of February for our next opportunity. 

In a few days the models may flip and then you will hear me striking a more somber tone. I am not making a prediction, just analyzing the information we have available, which is mostly positive for that period. Let's hope we continue the trend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's not a lock. It never is in this climate, but all the available tools we have seem to indicate a much cooler pattern takes hold between the 20-25th and sticks around for a while. Could still fall apart, I remember there was some potential in late January 2018 which totally fell apart, and we had to wait until the second half of February for our next opportunity. 

In a few days the models may flip and then you will hear me striking a more somber tone. I am not making a prediction, just analyzing the information we have available, which is mostly positive for that period. Let's hope we continue the trend. 

I imagine you wearing a monocle while saying this Andrew

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Through day 13 this run is super boring. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GEM is continuing to show that trough around the 20th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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