SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Lowland snow! At face value, things would turn much cooler after that trough around the 20th, as the airmass stays seasonably cool. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Onto the GEFS to look for any possible improvements, and then to see if the 00z EURO Op shows a solid ridge merge/retrogression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Check out that 1061mb high over the arctic ocean. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Big picture remains unchanged. Opportunities coming up. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Check out that 1061mb high over the arctic ocean. That might induce cross polar flow. Wow. Just a tad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Big picture remains unchanged. Opportunities coming up. Monocle just changed to sunglasses 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 This run ends chilly once again, but arrives there in about as boring way as possible. Still not bad not bad. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Monocle just changed to sunglasses I see we learned a new word today! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This run ends chilly once again, but arrives there in about as boring way as possible. Still not bad not bad. All that matters is that it gets there. Details are gonna change a lot obviously at that range. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 00z GEFS Day 9 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I see we learned a new word today! I’ve known Andrew for years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 As I do consider myself a climate realist, I must confess the 00z was a definite step back. 1 1 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 9.5 I don't want to jump the gun, but this looks potentially really good with the ridge merger, block, tilt, and amplification. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 10 (Past 4 runs) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9.5 I don't want to jump the gun, but this looks potentially really good with the ridge merger, block, tilt, and amplification. Outstanding news Mr. Droppin! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: Front Ranger Took your advice and watched “The Vast Of Night”. Pretty cool flick and enjoyed I just watched it also and really enjoyed it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 11 (Past 4 runs) Block pivoted migrating west a tad. Thus far the block is in the sweet spot and heights over southern Alaska are 4-6dam higher than previous runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Rising 500mb heights over southeast US too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 11.5 Nearly ideal just need this block to amplify a bit and not migrate any further west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Best ensemble yet for sure. Massive improvement through hour 282. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 12 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 550dam near southern Alaska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 00z GFS was a pretty stellar run. Nice to see timing move up a little too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: 00z GFS was a pretty stellar run. Nice to see timing move up a little too. Final 1/3 of January is looking pretty chilly. Maybe some snow at andrews house? 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 12.5 This is really, really good. 850s -13c now into Northeast Washington 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 In the short term looks like some heavy rain at times tomorrow through early Wednesday. 2”+ a good bet in many spots. Should also be interesting to see how warm things get with the south winds ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening. Outside chance PDX hits 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Final 1/3 of January is looking pretty chilly. Maybe some snow at andrews house? We can only hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Looks like we have a solid cold shot in the 9 to 10 day time frame now as depicted by both the GFS and GEM. Sharp northerly flow aloft, low thicknesses, cold 850s, northerly surface gradients. It's coming guys! Looks like the 0z ensemble is awesome! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: We can only hope. Nice to see a significant pattern change 9-10 days out now. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 9-13 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Have to remind myself that's an ensemble mean. This has good potential to improve down the stretch. For the life of me I can't understand why people have had so much doubt about this thing. It's been advertised as clear as day for a few days now. It's been obvious the -NAO would make it work out just fine. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like we have a solid cold shot in the 9 to 10 day time frame now as depicted by both the GFS and GEM. Sharp northerly flow aloft, low thicknesses, cold 850s, northerly surface gradients. It's coming guys! Looks like the 0z ensemble is awesome! Warning shot? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Really doesn't happen often you see an ensemble mean for SEA below -6 300 hours out but the 00z gets there. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Very nice! 6 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Holy crap. Not a single above normal ensemble member late in the run. A good number of -10 and below members as well. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy said: Warning shot? It might just get cold and stay cold too. Historically speaking though it's normal to have a brief warning shot followed by a brief warmup and then the big plunge. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Very nice! Extremely impressive. Looks just like February 2019 . . . 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Average -7.1 over SEA by the 24th. That is exceptional for that range. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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