Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 14 Block pivoting migrating a bit too the west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Holy crap. Not a single above normal ensemble member late in the run. A good number of -10 and below members as well. Post it pls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: For the life of me I can't understand why people have had so much doubt about this thing. It's been advertised as clear as day for a few days now. It's been obvious the -NAO would make it work out just fine. It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years? 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 14 Block pivoting migrating a bit too the west But if there is already cold air in place, wouldnt some onshore flow be good for you guys instead of just dry northerly flow? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Back to the EURO. Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: But if there is already cold air in place, wouldnt some onshore flow be good for you guys instead of just dry northerly flow? If thicknesses drop below 522 then it should be snow even in onshore flow. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Can't wait to see the extended GEFS tomorrow evening. Should be epic. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, AbbyJr said: Wondering if he is basing this on the EPS, and maybe also the weeklies and the long range GEFS Interesting considering we are focusing a lot on the 10-15 day GEFS now, and he is saying the really cold stuff doesn't get into Western Canada until two weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 ensemble members drop to -10 or lower for Seattle on this run. What an improvement! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years? Cmon Jesse this is one of the predictable essential elements of the potential interesting future weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 GEFS is more open to Arctic air than any of the previous runs. Let's keep that going. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: If thicknesses drop below 522 then it should be snow even in onshore flow. Good point. I mean at some point you need the moisture right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Some nice looking ensembles just for ‘drew. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Good point. I mean at some point you need the moisture right? Shadowing is the problem for the Willamette Valley in cold onshore events. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 That's a lot of magic -8 balls. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years? Besides the models everything says we should get hit. Context is important. People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is. This thing has about the most support I've seen. La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Omak ensembles looking very good 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Besides the models everything says we should get hit. Context is important. People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is. This thing has about the most support I've seen. La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on. Nice snow storm in Texas and Louisiana 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Shadowing is the problem for the Willamette Valley in cold onshore events. So what kind of a pattern does work for snow there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Besides the models everything says we should get hit. Context is important. People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is. This thing has about the most support I've seen. La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on. People on here have unrealistically high expectations for our climate. Some cold onshore flow with an inch or two of slush on the bark dust isn't really going to move the needle if we are talking about la la land. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So what kind of a pattern does work for snow there? Mountain wave where the cold air blows over the cascades and down the McKenzie then a low comes in around Cape Blanco or a bit south. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So what kind of a pattern does work for snow there? Anafronts, suppressed jet, overrunning events. Cold onshore flow can workout for the valley, but shadowing does tend to occur quite frequently. If showers are moving from the NW I even tend to get shadowed pretty badly. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Besides the models everything says we should get hit. Context is important. People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is. This thing has about the most support I've seen. La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on. I understand and acknowledge that we have a lot of boxes checked in our favor right now. And there are indeed some who are unnecessarily negative here and others who are unnecessarily positive, but I think overall it’s pretty balanced. But you know as well as anyone that nothing is ever a slam dunk until the good stuff is at our doorsteps. Simply stating that fact and nodding to the inherent uncertainty that gives this stuff half of it’s fun should not be construed as being “way too negative”. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Anafronts, suppressed jet, overrunning events. Cold onshore flow can workout for the valley, but shadowing does tend to occur quite frequently. If showers are moving from the NW I even tend to get shadowed pretty badly. Southward moving/stalled arctic fronts with an attendant area low pressure near the coast can too. In Dec 2008 that happened produced multiple rounds of snow showers at my house for several nights 3-5". Fun stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 At least we killed AL. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Put your nice rugs away if you don't want them pulled multiple times the next 11.3 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 8 Hmmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 I think we're still about 2 to maybe 3 days out from the Op runs showing the goodies in the 'believable' time frame, and then I can finally say, "Colder runs ahead!" (c)Rob 2016? Then "Cold enough for socks!" (c)Rob 2017? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Euro is much more blocky than the GFS. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Day 10 Mega arctic ridge bridge coming? The tilt would blast us repeatedly. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Mega arctic ridge bridge coming? The tilt would blast us repeatedly. Yep, the Euro is much more bullish on blocking. And from what I've heard, the Euro is much more accurate with its MJO predictions, which, lo and behold, is the key factor into forming high latitude GOA blocks. The SSW may have already happened, but the details surrounding its developing impacts are coming into view, very fluidly (no pun intended). 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Miss hearing the snarky drunken comments by CulverJosh/DomeBuster. Just gotta wait until he creates a troll account again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Miss hearing the snarky drunken comments by CulverJosh/DomeBuster. Just gotta wait until he creates a troll account again A delicious supper isn't complete without some salt... 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Likewise, the CMC is a great solution, much like today's 12z Euro. Stationary block with a warning shot beforehand. Though I don't see any impulses, I'd be willing to bet things get much colder 3-5 days after this point. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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