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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

12z GFS looks pretty epic. One nice flip side of the models not showing much eye candy in the long range this winter so far (probably because they are slowly getting better) is that when they finally do it holds a bit more credence.

 

Verification scores suggest they've moved from wildly inaccurate to just inaccurate in the long range.

They are probably better at picking up on macro-scale trends than they were 5-10 years ago (if runs repeatedly show a certain type of pattern developing, that means something), but the detailed stuff is still pretty meaningless. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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We don't have a Costco here in town. There used to be TWO Safeway's (one of them 4 minutes walk from my house) but were switched with Haggen for 5 months in 2015. Both shut down and went empty. lol

Thankfully the empty Haggen closer to me became a Holiday Market in Fall 2018. Nice little store and would consider getting work there. They were exclusively a California grocery store, and I believe ours was the first location to open in the pacific northwest.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We appreciate the effort. A little subpar, but it is acceptable. 

A cute puppy playfully poking its head of out of package with the Costco logo on it was what I had in mind, but apparently no stock photos like that exist, at least with a superficial google image search.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

That dog is clearly full grown. :angry:

There are definitely people who call any dog a puppy regardless of age/size. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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One short term trend I am liking on the 12Z runs is that it appears we will see a nice respite from the torch starting the middle of this week, as the jet starts to relax a bit. Temps look a lot closer to average leading up to the potential big pattern change around the 20th.

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FWIW the 12z GEFS has completed.

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, it seems like the block really starts floating off to the NW by the 27th. We'll have to see how things evolve after that, some of the longer range GEFS runs have shown it pivoting back as we get closer to the turn of the month. It is not going to just sit in the exact same spot, I still think we see a fairly favorable pattern through mid-February with multiple opportunities to score. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So it’s a stale question, but absolutely vital to pattern change success...

Who’s told who?

I told my wife that it will be cooling down towards the end of the month to add to her already weenie freakout a few days ago about how high the last power bill was. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Andrew’s onboard status already on the cutting board???

No. That was not my point. The 20-27th period now looking solidly below normal, and likely through the end of the month. There may be a reduction in potential for the last few days of the month before roaring back the first 10 days of February. 

 

 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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