MossMan Posted January 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I’m in the secondish shade of pepto! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Operational GFS run is definitely an outlier with regards to the lack of blocking over AK. It seems that it has been toying with the idea of a persistent TPV lobe north of Barrow north of AK, which in response to the increasing heights to its south strengthens the jet on the northern flank of the block, shearing it in the process, and capping it south of Fairbanks. Later in the run this jet is dissolved and substantial, meaningful blocking can take place. It seems the GEFS incurs a solution that would allow for more Arctic intrusions than its parent member, despite its output signal being a tad weaker than the 12z. In my opinion, I think the 18z encountered something fishy out over the Pacific, and will be an outlier in an overall improving trend. Time will tell though. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: If this is referring to LR op runs, well...duh. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Toot toot! More like forum volatility. Ensemble looks the same. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 This is actually really nice. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Steve Pierce is kind of on board. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: If this is referring to LR op runs, well...duh. You don’t look at them, how would you know? Long range guidance has been exceptionally static this winter. I think we’re gonna see some “old school” volatility this week. This run, and the opposing reactions have those feels. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 I think given the look of the ensembles we'll see one of the next two operational GFS runs go full arctic on us from the 23rd-26th. My money is on the SexZ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 looks like a mesoscale modeling nightmare with where the lows set up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Steve Pierce is kind of on board. He was on board the last week of November 2008 as well...Its happening!! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: I spy a couple 1969s The patterns that produced the #1 and #2 all time snow depths here are on this analog composite. Interesting. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 18z Ensembles definitely more of a muted signal. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I think given the look of the ensembles we'll see one of the next two operational GFS runs go full arctic on us from the 23rd-26th. My money is on the SexZ. That one seems to be our new drunkcle. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That one seems to be our new drunkcle. Yeah 18z is down at AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ensemble mean. 4 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 These meteograms should be fun. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Jaya is skeptical of it all. 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 One operational run that is not even that bad is enough to throw this forum off. Quite amusing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Looks like the block just drifts away at the end of the run. Quick-hitter. 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like the block just drifts away at the end of the run. Quick-hitter. No one actually knows wether it’ll be a “quick hitter” or not. Could be just a several day episode or a couple week episode. Seems to that we’ve locked into a cooler than normal pattern that’s pretty much the only certainty based on the ensembles. We don’t know how cold it’ll get or how long it’ll last...wether it’ll be of the Arctic variety or not...or if snow will get down to sea level or stay up in the foothills. Just gotta be patient and see what happens pretty much all opinions being offered on here are just guesses we don’t know anything yet. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ensembles look pretty d*mn good for a long term period of cold currently. There’s just no way of telling all the small scale details yet. Lots of good signs so far but hard to say much else. 5 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: No one actually knows wether it’ll be a “quick hitter” or not. Could be just a several day episode or a couple week episode. Seems to that we’ve locked into a cooler than normal pattern that’s pretty much the only certainty based on the ensembles. We don’t know how cold it’ll get or how long it’ll last...wether it’ll be of the Arctic variety or not...or if snow will get down to sea level or stay up in the foothills. Just gotta be patient and see what happens pretty much all opinions being offered on here are just guesses we don’t know anything yet. The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season So far everything looks good...but saying this whole event is just going to be a “quick hitter” more than 10 days out is a very premature statement. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just looked at the 18z. Nice looking run and great to see the trend of a big pattern change continuing, long range details aside Andrew. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: John Lithgow is spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Average snowfall by the end of the run increased an inch for KSEA vs. 12z GEFS. My money's on the control! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is a lot more than the 12z 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season Did you know that in Red Bluff, CA inversion season lasts from October to March and it snows gumdrops? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just awesome to see potential as well as snow maps! If the fish gets off at the last moment we always have the Hitler video 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: This is a lot more than the 12z Winter is even more un-re-un-uncanceled! 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 0.83” so far today. We’ve been in the sweet spot so far today with steady rain for 9 hours now. North edge of the rainfall migrated down to about seattle earlier today but never made it down this way so it’s been consistent rainfall with no stoppage. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, umadbro said: Jaya is skeptical of it all. He does have a point about the lack of a SE ridge. Weeklies dont show that until early February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Is that pink stuff supposed to be close to us? Is it good if we are in the dark blue/purple colors? What about the 'L' thing? Is that a good location for snow? Is this 'yikes' worthy? THAT IS TEXTBOOK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!! Just sayin' edit= looks eerily like December 1996 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: THAT IS TEXTBOOK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!! Just sayin' edit= looks eerily like December 1996 Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: He does have a point about the lack of a SE ridge. Weeklies dont show that until early February. January 1969 was cold in Atlanta! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California. That ship canal bridge has some awesome force to keep Canuck cold from infilitrating further southward eh? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 JAYA and TWL are not onboard. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 May we have snowier runs ahead. Also, go Buckeyes, beat bama! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 out of 30 18z ensemble members give SEA at least a foot of snow by the 27th. 2 1 2 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.