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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.83” so far today. We’ve been in the sweet spot so far today with steady rain for 9 hours now. North edge of the rainfall migrated down to about seattle earlier today but never made it down this way so it’s been consistent rainfall with no stoppage. 

.75 on the other side of the bay

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Conflicting reports!

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just checked out the end of the 18z GEFS, it looked to me the block was left amplified, but had not drifted as far west as the previous run. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California.

If that was anything like Feb 2014, places south of Deschutes missed all of the arctic air. I was having highs 38-42 and snow only fell in AM hours. But I know Redmond had a nice blast in 2014.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Wowzers!  That 12z EPS was pretty crazy.  So much for this just being cold onshore flow coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

JAYA and TWL are not onboard. 

Why?  The progression is exactly the same on every model.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Chill bruh.

Aren't we allowed to get excited about great model runs?  Sheesh.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Why?  The progression is exactly the same on every model.

in the case of jaya probably because he is former pro met that remains reasonably skeptical about 10 day+ model solutions

in the case of twl it is a deeply internalized subconscious hatred of January due to crashing on his bike in mid Jan when he was 9.

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39 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California.

The low level cold went further south than that.  There was a big ice storm here, and it did snow a lot on the transition event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, OysterPrintout said:

in the case of jaya probably because he is former pro met that remains reasonably skeptical about 10 day+ model solutions

in the case of twl it is a deeply internalized subconscious hatred of January due to crashing on his bike in mid Jan when he was 9.

It's actually inside of day 10 now, and the models just keep getting more bullish.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually inside of day 10 now, and the models just keep getting more bullish.

He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal.  Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal.  

Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet.  We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong.

But I am optimistic.  Cool or cold I get snow either way.  

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The control model on the 18z GFS ensemble shows 18 inches of snow for SEA through the 27th.  I could live with that.  The mean shows a little over 5.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal.  Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal.  

Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet.  We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong.

But I am optimistic.  Cool or cold I get snow either way.  

It's hard to ignore the ensemble means we have been seeing.  That -NAO is what makes it work.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just noticed that the Euro shows some pretty major winds tomorrow night. 991mb low right through the tip of the Olympic Peninsula.

 

FB_IMG_1610417138267.jpg

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  • Windy 2

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal.  Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal.  

Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet.  We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong.

But I am optimistic.  Cool or cold I get snow either way.  

Does seem odd the MJO would be quiet with such a momentous pattern change and in a post-SSW environment...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. 

Then I saw this...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-0539200.png

Cool can't wait for the next round of power outages. This will be #6 since Labor Day. 

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  • Windy 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. 

Then I saw this...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-0539200.png

How many runs has the euro been showing this? Might be a really bad time for a windstorm with the high soil saturation. How’s it comparing to other models? 

  • Sad 1
  • Windy 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Signal for cold goes well into February. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_119.png

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. 

Then I saw this...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-0539200.png

Absurd. That would rival the Hannakuh Eve Storm.

Doesn't feel like anything major like that would happen in this setup though. Euro does feel fluky.

 

  • Windy 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Absurd. That would rival the Hannakuh Eve Storm.

Doesn't feel like anything major like that would happen in this setup though. Euro does feel fluky.

 

Yeah...I just don't see it.  The WRF shows nothing at all.  The gradients shown on the ECMWF itself don't seem to warrant those kinds of winds.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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