January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Will you change your mind of the 00z Euro doesn't back down on the strong winds?

From what I've heard, the Euro overestimates wind gusts even in the most benign of MSLP gradients by 5-20%. Still, its 18z solution would be a quick and powerful blow.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Probably not. I don't see winds that strong verifying.

But who knows... Sometimes you bet against the Euro and it proves you the fool.

My biggest winds typically come when they are under-forecasted...Generator is gassed up and ready! 

[Kolk1604]

 

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Probably not. I don't see winds that strong verifying.

But who knows... Sometimes you bet against the Euro and it proves you the fool.

Betting against the king? Is that a thing?

Yeah, I know it's unlikely, but I can always hope. Been hoping for some serious wind and it's been awhile. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

New GFS at the end has a Western Ridge as well as a ridge over Western Alaska.  And cold in the east, warm here.

[Phil]

We’re following the 1988/89 timeline. Major blast increasingly likely towards the end of the month. Might graze the PNW or hit full on, but it’ll be centered in the West.

Chilly/meridional pattern takes hold about a week before the big stuff gets going, however. So in that respect we diverge from 1989, which turned on a dime.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro still showing strong gusts but not as crazy. 

Could you show NW Oregon please?

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro still showing strong gusts but not as crazy. 

Kinda looks like the 12z. Maybe a smidge scaled back. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’re following the 1988/89 timeline. Major blast increasingly likely towards the end of the month. Might graze the PNW or hit full on, but it’ll be centered in the West.

Chilly/meridional pattern takes hold about a week before the big stuff gets going, however. So in that respect we diverge from 1989, which turned on a dime.

Wow for once we are pretty much on the same page. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’re following the 1988/89 timeline. Major blast increasingly likely towards the end of the month. Might graze the PNW or hit full on, but it’ll be centered in the West.

Chilly/meridional pattern takes hold about a week before the big stuff gets going, however. So in that respect we diverge from 1989, which turned on a dime.

If anything like February 2nd, 1989 occurs, I'll be satisfied for the rest of the decade. (Not really though.)

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow for once we are pretty much on the same page. 

Hear hear! Btw, whatever happened to “a week of western ridging followed by more zonal flow”?  

Haha, just joshing. Lots of reason for optimism going forward out there.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Could you show NW Oregon please?

This map is in Knots 

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 1.18” on the day. Solidly wet. 

[MossMan]

Sure hope we get a good snowfall going into the cold...Dry blasts are just not as much fun. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

A little odd that there is ensemble support for it, to an extent. Low locations map shows some of the members are thinking a sub-985mb low into Forks.

 

I’m guessing 40-45mph gusts unless we end up with a willamette valley suprise or something. 

[Jesse]

Just now, MossMan said:

Sure hope we get a good snowfall going into the cold...Dry blasts are just not as much fun. 

Always appreciate your stellar analysis.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This map is in Knots 

Thank you very much. Uh, that seems a bit overdone, I’m surprised EURO just isn’t backing down.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 1.18” on the day. Solidly wet. 

.49” here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

.49” here. 

It’s been wetter so far this year down this way...but soon enough you’ll be ahead of me in rainfall YTD. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Thank you very much. Uh, that seems a bit overdone, I’m surprised EURO just isn’t backing down.

Yeah, same here. I thought it would back down, but this is the 3rd run in a row with high winds. 

Lets see if the 6z and 12z are the same. 

[Kolk1604]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Something tells me 60mph gusts (let alone 70mph like it was showing before) + extremely saturated soils = not a good thing. Can't believe I'm saying this about a wind event but kind of hope it doesn't pan out to be too extreme.

40mph gusts would be just fine and is probably closer to what will happen. 

Dude that's a good point. My job is in the valley next to the hillside with only one road. If this were to verify, I can imagine it would cause a couple of landslides or knock some trees over the road. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hear hear! Btw, whatever happened to “a week of western ridging followed by more zonal flow”?  

Haha, just joshing. Lots of reason for optimism going forward out there.

Looks like mother nature had other plans.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Phil]

Driving back to Maryland tomorrow. Can’t wait to dive headfirst into everything I’ve missed since I disconnected from the world. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Always appreciate your stellar analysis.

You just earned yourself a pic from our Cabo trip! 

[Jesse]

Just now, Phil said:

Driving back to Maryland tomorrow. Can’t wait to dive headfirst into everything I’ve missed since I disconnected from the world. 

Hate to break it to you but I think Maryland is a confederate state now.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m guessing 40-45mph gusts unless we end up with a willamette valley suprise or something. 

Strong jet and that low is deepening at a pretty good clip at landfall. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Be back shortly

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hate to break it to you but I think Maryland is a confederate state now.

Glad I missed all that bulls**t.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Be back shortly

Laundry? 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Laundry? 

Everybody poops.

[SouthHillFrosty]

That's a nice rug, hate to pull it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well that's a little different...

Now we enter the rug pull phase. 

[Meatyorologist]

You won't hear me complaining about this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#Notevenworried

[MossMan]

We should have listened to JAYA. 

[Front Ranger]

Aleutian low doesn't want to completely kick out on the Euro.

Thanks, Phil.