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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Back. Thanks for taking over. Yeah Day 10 looks amazing. PV lobe moving southwestward and arctic ridge bridge coming which would direct the PV right to us. It's just so far out. The ridge merger doesn't begin until Day 7.5 to 8, so we have to pump the breaks a bit and also not take every model run as gospel. Take it at face value. Onto 6z, 12z. C'MON!!!!
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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
Back. Thanks for taking over. Yeah Day 10 looks amazing. PV lobe moving southwestward and arctic ridge bridge coming which would direct the PV right to us. It's just so far out. The ridge merger doesn't begin until Day 7.5 to 8, so we have to pump the breaks a bit and also not take every model run as gospel. Take it at face value. Onto 6z, 12z. C'MON!!!!

lol I was thinking the same thing. It looks like it's trying to merge at day 9. 

195572.png?1673757432

 

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Can’t take 1 run and put a fork in it. The main goods aren’t even supposed to be coming until after day 10 anyways...which isn’t visible on the EURO. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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One thing really working for the Euro that would increase winds tomorrow night is the low continues to rapidly deepen well after landfall. This creates a very tight pressure gradient as the low swings through.

 

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image--268300496.jpeg

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image-996238508.jpeg

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image--596039710.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Strong jet and that low is deepening at a pretty good clip at landfall. 

We will see! Would be a big win for the euro if it verifies without much support from other models. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One thing really working for the Euro that would increase winds tomorrow is the low continues to rapidly deepen well after landfall. This creates a very tight pressure gradient as the low swings through.

 

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image--268300496.jpeg

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image-996238508.jpeg

USER_SCOPED_TEMP_DATA_orca-image--596039710.jpeg

I can’t read the times on the map, when are they supposed to hit? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I can’t read the times on the map, when are they supposed to hit? 

First is 10pm tomorrow, second is 4am Wednesday, and third is 10am Wednesday.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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384285934_download(45).thumb.png.114afa5a71294681ea249d48e8751f71.png

1833338144_download(44).thumb.png.7dd882829c27f12d5ca8fbf8624dc88b.png

This is why we have ensembles... OP is less amplified than the EPS mean.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png

Not as good as the 12Z, but still pretty good.  We just had a streak going where every run was better than the last.  That wasn't going to continue.  It it had, then we would be headed toward all time record cold when we got there.

We were just spoiled by the streak of better and better runs. 

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2076780952_download(46).thumb.png.4460b86586ad95f0eecd264b92182ce9.png

815821086_download(47).thumb.png.f8181347f9a9967a12dbc9be00a5a87e.png

Difference in 850 temps is even more noticeable.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2076780952_download(46).thumb.png.4460b86586ad95f0eecd264b92182ce9.png

815821086_download(47).thumb.png.f8181347f9a9967a12dbc9be00a5a87e.png

Difference in 850 temps is even more noticeable.

This one looks better :)

I think it's the same right? Except this one is also the mean. 

Edit: lol I'm dumb. I just releasied the mistake. I thought you were posting a 12z and 00z comparison... Not a EMCWF and EPS one... lol blonde moment

14-km EPS Global North America 850 hPa Temp Anom 240.png

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The one thing I’ve been concern about is the ridge continuing to trend further west. At some point we really need it to stop, but I’m not really liking the trend. 

This is something to look out for. The features to the west of the high are weakening while the features to the east are strengthening. Nothing to keep the GOA high in place.

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I have a bad feeling the overnight run is going to be a step back but I hope to be pleasantly surprised. Not sure I'll be able to stay up for it tho.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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