Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, jakerepp said: Nice! I was hoping you would chime in with some fresh pictures. 8 2 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: I was thinking that there is no way I do better in the snow dept. then you do, UNLESS a strong CZ sets up at some point and doesn't go that far south. That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Now the GEM is way cooler than the GFS for days 9/10. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component. Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though! You never want to be in the sweet spot more than 12 hours out. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Amazing. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Score another win for the UW 4k WRF ensemble plumes, especially the mean. NWS called for mostly rain with little to no snow accumulation. WRF called for about 10 inches. I have measured anywhere between 10-13 inches at my house and where I work. The WRF ensemble mean has beaten the NWS soundly quite a few times this year, about 5 times that I can think of. NWS beat the WRF only once 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component. Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though! Exactly... if history is a guide we might be laughing at those GFS snowfall maps in 2 weeks. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics. I was gonna say looks mostly like a byproduct of low resolution at that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, GobBluth said: Good pattern for California to get in on the action. Yep we can go from nothing to 10' in a setup like that. Our last and only "Storm" was way back on Nov 8th. Looks like we have to get through a week of record highs first. We will be starting the pattern change with bare dirt here. I hope it doesn't fall apart like the last pattern change 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yes. Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow. Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip. I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower. For wet snow just get a Honda with tracks. Everyone in Tahoe tries to cheap out and get a craftsman for $800 and then ends up spending the $2800 for a Honda a couple of seasons later. The Honda's can throw wet snow 25' further than other models and the tracks keep it from spinning. Also they are bullet proof and can be resold 5 years later for $2100 on craigslist. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z Euro continued to show pretty strong winds tonight, mainly between 12-4AM for Puget Sound area. wow for tonight that is crazy strong would at least give us a wind advisory tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just saw the 12z GFS. What a wild run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ensemble not as good. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Yup, very disappointing but it's a long way out. It is unfortunately what usually happens so time will tell. A regional event would be awesome tho if that could sag a bit south. Congrats northerners. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Ensemble not as good. Not true. They show the operational being a huge warm outlier for the initial pattern change around day 10. Seems the op kind of fumbled that part. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL! Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low. Yeah its all snow to sea level from about Salem-north. Rain in Elmira. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 TWL is right. At least at hour 186 on Tidbits. 12z 06z 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Through hour 288, definitely a weaker signal on the GEFS. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 12z 06z 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 12z 06z America has now also declared war on itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yes. Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow. Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip. I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower. Yea. I have the same problem. The ones on tracks are better for traction but also a lot more pricey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, OysterPrintout said: comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal. Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up." 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Are we looking at the same 12z? This is snow from Vancouver Island to Eugene: Shows about 5 feet of snow here. Very realistic expectation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up." But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Still coming down at the end of the GFS run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up." I didn't see anyone directly say he was making stuff up but just was mostly responding to the "worse so far" kinda comments...people JUST got burned with that on the 12z OP run this morning and start doing it again with ensembles (though I get the fun of doing frame by frame hype). Timing/config will move around a bit especially at this distance. Different runs ahead! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. To be fair, the ensemble mean has yet to drop below -5C at PDX. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 I was going to cherry pick frames from that run, but it looks snowy so here it is 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Rains finally letting up for now after 26 hours of straight rainfall. 1.29” this morning and a 2.56” storm total. 7.23” on the month. Rain will probably be showery for awhile before the next batch moves in tonight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yes. Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow. Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip. I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower. Do they make studded snowblower tires??? We went with a tracked snowblower for the place in Twisp its done OK, i feel like we're smashing through shear bolts way too easily though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Do they make studded snowblower tires??? We went with a tracked snowblower for the place in Twisp its done OK, i feel like we're smashing through shear bolts way too easily though. Shear bolts on the auger? What brand? I’ve only sheared 1 in 10 years. I have a Toro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Can you post the ensembles for KPLU pls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: This looks nice... Never doubt a SSW during a -ENSO winter w/ an MJO response thru the IPWP. 6 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TT-SEA Posted January 12, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 My wife took it upon herself to create a new WB account for me and paid for an entire year. She said I had set it up for monthly and that is more expensive. I remember thinking I was just going to try it for a few months when I first signed up and then never updated it. So now I cancelled my existing account and switched to the new one. She gave up trying to convince me its not worth it and decided to take matters into her own hands to lower the cost. 11 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Washington passes have been killing it lately. Snoqualmie is at 236” of snowfall and average by this time of year is 159”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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