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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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GFS meteograms

1610452800-kSrjIkuPcew.png

1610452800-aTDNbOSKat8.png

1610452800-VFkf6vVEv94.png

had a request for KPLU

1610452800-JizEjPG5q2g.png

 

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The wavebreak that leads to the “ridge bridge” is notably stronger on the GEFS than the EPS. Maybe the latter will cave at 00z.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The wavebreak that leads to the “ridge bridge” is notably stronger on the GEFS than the EPS. Maybe the latter will cave at 00z.

The 00z and 06z blends were pretty insane.  The 12z seemed to walk it back a touch.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

I just checked the traffic cams and its still all rain around Seattle. I don't get why anyone would be hyped up over some mid-30s and slush. I am with you Tim, people need to set their expectations back to reality such as this so called "event" only being a a couple days of chunky rain, that people posting from their forested North Bend chalets are going to spend a decade of tim-posting, and that existence is brief and meaningless when taking into consideration quantum entropy.

Go get 'em buddy.

It's even raining all the way up in Prince George.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 00z and 06z blends were pretty insane.  The 12z seemed to walk it back a touch.  

Yup. Good news is there’s a large degree of wiggle room given the vast extent of the blocking (versus a Feb 1989 or Dec 1990 scenario where everything had to be timed perfectly..those also tend to be more transient vs those with established arctic/downstream blocking like the present situation).

You could make an argument for either the GEFS outcome or the EPS one. And both would deliver the goods. The GEFS is just more impressive and would get there ~ 5 days earlier than the EPS.

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Good ✊🏿 

Nothing like a good suburban riot! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yup. Good news is there’s a large degree of wiggle room given the vast extent of the blocking (versus a Feb 1989 or Dec 1990 scenario where everything had to be timed perfectly..those also tend to be more transient vs those with established arctic/downstream blocking).

You could make an argument for either the GEFS outcome or the EPS one. And both would deliver the goods. The GEFS is just more impressive and would get there ~ 5 days earlier than the EPS.

I am pretty bullish, but would be more so if PDX could get an ensemble mean below -4C. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup. Good news is there’s a large degree of wiggle room given the vast extent of the blocking (versus a Feb 1989 or Dec 1990 scenario where everything had to be timed perfectly..those also tend to be more transient vs those with established arctic/downstream blocking).

You could make an argument for either the GEFS outcome or the EPS one. And both would deliver the goods. The GEFS is just more impressive and would get there ~ 5 days earlier than the EPS.

December 1990 was one of our most persistent cold patterns in modern times.  Two major blasts and almost a third over the span of 3+ weeks.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pretty bullish, but would be more so if PDX could get an ensemble mean below -4C. 

That’ll happen eventually. Haven’t been able to dig into everything yet but I’d argue this is more analogous to longer duration (but less extreme) cold patterns like Feb 2019 and perhaps Jan 1969, which had both upstream and downstream blocking, versus one hit wonders like 1989, which only had upstream blocking.

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16 minutes ago, iFred said:

I just checked the traffic cams and its still all rain around Seattle. I don't get why anyone would be hyped up over some mid-30s and slush. I am with you Tim, people need to set their expectations back to reality such as this so called "event" only being a a couple days of chunky rain, that people posting from their forested North Bend chalets are going to spend a decade of tim-posting, and that existence is brief and meaningless when taking into consideration quantum entropy.

Go get 'em buddy.

It was a joke about Kayla always warning people that the last day on the 12Z runs is only through 4 a.m. 

Not anything to do with the actual temps being showed.   Glad you were able to do your usual sarcarstic-laden post though!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December 1990 was one of our most persistent cold patterns in modern times.  Two major blasts and almost a third over the span of 3+ weeks.

I probably mixed that up with another year then. Running off memory right now.

I know one of those patterns in the 1989-1990 timeframe was particularly fluky/lucky. Big -MT event with a strong vortex that just happened to be situated ideally to sustain the pattern fighting it. Maybe that was 1990. I’ll check this evening. 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’ll happen eventually. Haven’t been able to dig into everything yet but I’d argue this is more analogous to longer duration (but less extreme) cold patterns like Feb 2019 and perhaps Jan 1969, which had both upstream and downstream blocking, versus one hit wonders like 1989, which only had upstream blocking.

I have been screaming this will have some staying power ever since I got off the winter cancel train. ;) 

But if you look at the weeklies, they favor Western troughing through February. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I probably mixed that up with another year then. Running off memory right now.

I know one of those patterns in the 1989-1990 timeframe was particularly fluky/lucky. Big -MT event with a strong vortex that just happened to be situated ideally to sustain the pattern fighting it. Maybe that was 1990. I’ll check this evening. 

Hard to call February 1989 fluky and/or a one and done as well.  Obviously the initial event stands alone in every way possible, but the long wave pattern remained favorable for quite a while. Couple of brushes with cold around mid month then the very early March event.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Ensemble mean

1611748800-d668LctePD4.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1610452800-1610452800-1611727200-20.gif

I was worried you weren't going to post anymore of these this winter. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1610452800-1610452800-1611727200-20.gif

Sub 534 heights on the mean. Insane at that range. Looks to be the lowest yet.

Does look like a lot of very cold onshore flow though with the orientation of the block.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ensemble mean

1611727200-BQvcLw5tV1c.png

Kind of realistic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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0.3" of rain on the day so far and 2.4" on the month. We're almost up to 50% of average for January about half way through January!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of realistic. 

Yup, I think a Jan 2008 is something to realistically hope for. 1969 comparisons are fun but also just not a realistic solution with this setup IMO. I'd love to be wrong.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was worried you weren't going to post anymore of these this winter. ;)

I post them when I see that no one else has posted them yet.    There is usually a 5-minute window in there once the EPS finishes lately because we are in the heart of model-tracking season now.

And I usually post a f*ck ton of cold and snow maps when the time arrives.   Always have.   And I post specifically requested maps and try to keep up with demand in a timely manner.   Not sure what else I can do.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pretty bullish, but would be more so if PDX could get an ensemble mean below -4C. 

If someone were to make a parody of weather forum model riding—comedic gold for .0001 of the world’s population—I imagine you as a sort of Leslie Nielsen type protagonist.  

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18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December 1990 was one of our most persistent cold patterns in modern times.  Two major blasts and almost a third over the span of 3+ weeks.

I was living in the South Bay Area at the time and San Jose had 33 days with lows below freezing that winter. I don't think they have had another winter with more than 8 days since. 

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Just now, Runtmc said:

If someone were to make a parody of weather forum model riding—comedic gold for .0001 of the world’s population—I imagine you as a sort of Leslie Nielsen type protagonist.  

Given you know who Leslie Nielsen is I would peg you at over 50 and a Trump voter. I try to find the line between trolling, seriousness, and comedy. If I am ever able to pull it off you will never know which is which. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to call February 1989 fluky and/or a one and done as well.  Obviously the initial event stands alone in every way possible, but the long wave pattern remained favorable for quite a while. Couple of brushes with cold around mid month then the very early March event.

The long wave pattern wasn’t transient per se, however the core of the cold pool certainly was. That TPV didn’t stick around.

In any case, I’m pretty sure I’m thinking of December 1990. Favorable tropics in tandem with subtropical AAM sink under dual -MT (Asia + N-America) if I recall correctly? Not a progression I would expect to see again anytime soon.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given you know who Leslie Nielsen is I would peg you at over 50 and a Trump voter. I try to find the line between trolling, seriousness, and comedy. If I am ever able to pull it off you will never know which is which. ;)

?

Hey now I'm late 30's and I've seen a ton of his movies (Airplane! is my favorite all time comedy) and even had his golf book and I'd like to see Trump pushed out into the ocean on a ship on fire so that was an UNFAIR SLIGHT ON LESLIE MAY HE REST IN PEACE 

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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

?

Hey now I'm late 30's and I've seen a ton of his movies (Airplane! is my favorite all time comedy) and even had his golf book and I'd like to see Trump pushed out into the ocean on a ship on fire so that was an UNFAIR SLIGHT ON LESLIE MAY HE REST IN PEACE 

Fair enough, I am 36 and am familiar with him. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The long wave pattern wasn’t transient per se, however the core of the cold pool certainly was. That TPV didn’t stick around.

In any case, I’m pretty sure I’m thinking of December 1990. Favorable tropics in tandem with subtropical AAM sink under dual -MT if I recall correctly. Not an outcome I would expect to see again anytime soon.

I think most people’s idea of a one-and-done would be something along the lines of December 1998.  Massive +EPO with some quick ridging, then major retrogression followed by a quick return to massive +EPO.  Ironically, that setup was also progged for a while to “lock in.”

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

?

Hey now I'm late 30's and I've seen a ton of his movies (Airplane! is my favorite all time comedy) and even had his golf book and I'd like to see Trump pushed out into the ocean on a ship on fire so that was an UNFAIR SLIGHT ON LESLIE MAY HE REST IN PEACE 

I just wanted to tell you both good luck.  We’re all counting on you.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think most people’s idea of a one-and-done would be something along the lines of December 1998.  Massive +EPO with some quick ridging, then major retrogression followed by a quick return to massive +EPO.  Ironically, that setup was also progged for a while to “lock in.”

BINGO. 

December 1998 is the perfect example. 

Most "epic" stretches of weather, especially in modern times are in the 7-14 day range. Something like February 2019 which lasted 5-6 weeks is very very rare. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Curious as to what will happen tonight in regards to winds-- will be interesting to watch.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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