TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Lol he pulled out the DMs 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oops... I don't think anyone doubts that you actually had a conference chat with papa Duggar. It's just that it means absolutely nothing in terms of what our weather actually does the next several weeks. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 A 20% chance of snow in the lowlands in a month long forecast is actually not too shabby. I still want to disembowel that met for being so short on dramatics and acronyms but I’ll take that 20 all day long! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Nobody knows what’s going to happen...NWS...joe bastardi...or dome buster. Just wait and see what happens. Lots of potential still. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: A 20% chance of snow in the lowlands in a month long forecast is actually not too shabby. I still want to disembowel that met for being so short on dramatics and acronyms but I’ll take that 20 all day long! That means we will see snow every one in five days right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: That means we will see snow every one in five days right? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oops... Chris knows his stuff but he isn't God. Please tell me where the trough axis is from the 5 day anomaly on today's EPS run. Model runs change. I think he's also heavily discounting how much cold air is getting bottled into SW Canada but he's the pro, we'll see who is right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Nobody knows what’s going to happen...NWS...joe bastardi...or dome buster. Just wait and see what happens. Lots of potential still. Josh knows. Got word through some back channels in La Pine or something. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Well done, Andrew. 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You are being just as dumb as the Trump supporters who don't believe the manatee mutilation story. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/florida-manatee-trump.html I would appreciate not politicalizing this thread. I'm here to enjoy the weather discussion. Whomever did that to the manatee should not ever see the light of day. And yes, I support my President, but no, I'm not a rabid supporter. Growing up in Idaho and retiring from the military, I learned how to support my President whomever he is. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. Why don't you want us to have nice things Andrew 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. We appreciate the insight. However, the ensembles have been rock solid so far. Those maps are showing the first week of Feb. We have a lot of potential before that 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Why don't you want us to have nice things Andrew 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We appreciate the insight. However, the ensembles have been rock solid so far The GFS operational has been putting out some fun stuff too. 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: The GFS operational has been putting out some fun stuff too. Wasn't the screenshots showing the first week of Feb? A lot of potential before that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Model AND met volatility! And it’s only Tuesday!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wasn't the screenshots showing the first week of Feb? A lot of potential before that I think so. I did mention the bullishness of recent GFS runs. For the record, I still feel pretty good about this thing. 2 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Met disagrees? Throw him out. Time for the next met to step up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 I hope ya'll can forgive me for posting unauthorized content, which goes against the prevailing wisdom of a January 1969 redux. In order to atone I decided to post some epic images from the 12z CFS. Unfortunately this was the best I could find. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 GFS un-un-un-un-un-un-un-cancels winter (!!) Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 the speed of this pattern change will depend on that kona low action Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 FWIW the Drunk Uncle looks very similar to the 12z EPS at day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: FWIW the Drunk Uncle looks very similar to the 12z EPS at day 8 nothing like the 12z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 18z 12z Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Cliff Mass seems to be somewhat onboard. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Looks like the rain will be returning shortly. 56/45 spread so far today with 1.32” of rain. We will see if we can make a run at the 2” mark later tonight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, GobBluth said: nothing like the 12z gfs Yep the 18z forms the kona low instead having the low get caught between ridges and nuking the first ridge merger at day 6-7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Yep the 18z forms the kona low instead having the low get caught between ridges and nuking the first ridge merger at day 6-7 Ridge is eventually getting nuked by all the energy riding over the top Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, GobBluth said: Ridge is eventually getting nuked by all the energy riding over the top Same thing happens with the EPS progression, it reorganizes and amplifies again on the EPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Pivotal stuck at hour 210. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Overrunning EVENT, NW Interior. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Shot #2 incoming? Would be nice to get a bit more amplification on that block. Probably a score for the NW even with onshore flow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Nice event for everybody in Washington/Oregon....except my house is in the green!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Probably a coincidence, but this run us mirroring most long range ensemble blends to a T. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1349122509795332096 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 So close.... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Not as much cold air to tap into across the border. Yea I was noticing that. Comparing this run to the 12, a lot more cold rain than snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Dang. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Not as much cold air to tap into across the border. Probably due to the absence of the cross-polar ridging which forced the PV to reorganize and move south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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