January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol he pulled out the DMs 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oops...

 

I don't think anyone doubts that you actually had a conference chat with papa Duggar. It's just that it means absolutely nothing in terms of what our weather actually does the next several weeks.

[Deweydog]

A 20% chance of snow in the lowlands in a month long forecast is actually not too shabby. I still want to disembowel that met for being so short on dramatics and acronyms but I’ll take that 20 all day long!

[TacomaWaWx]

Nobody knows what’s going to happen...NWS...joe bastardi...or dome buster. Just wait and see what happens. Lots of potential still. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

A 20% chance of snow in the lowlands in a month long forecast is actually not too shabby. I still want to disembowel that met for being so short on dramatics and acronyms but I’ll take that 20 all day long!

That means we will see snow every one in five days right?

[Deweydog]

Just now, Jesse said:

That means we will see snow every one in five days right?

[SalemDuck]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oops...

 

Chris knows his stuff but he isn't God. Please tell me where the trough axis is from the 5 day anomaly on today's EPS run. Model runs change. I think he's also heavily discounting how much cold air is getting bottled into SW Canada but he's the pro, we'll see who is right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. 

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nobody knows what’s going to happen...NWS...joe bastardi...or dome buster. Just wait and see what happens. Lots of potential still. 

Josh knows. Got word through some back channels in La Pine or something.

[Deweydog]

Well done, Andrew.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are being just as dumb as the Trump supporters who don't believe the manatee mutilation story. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/florida-manatee-trump.html

I would appreciate not politicalizing this thread.  I'm here to enjoy the weather discussion.  Whomever did that to the manatee should not ever see the light of day.  And yes, I support my President, but no, I'm not a rabid supporter.  Growing up in Idaho and retiring from the military, I learned how to support my President whomever he is.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. 

Why don't you want us to have nice things Andrew

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay, just thought I would share some insight from someone who has a Masters degree in Atmospheric Sciences and makes their living looking at the models. I will keep this to myself next time. 

We appreciate the insight. However, the ensembles have been rock solid so far. Those maps are showing the first week of Feb. We have a lot of potential before that

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Why don't you want us to have nice things Andrew

 

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We appreciate the insight. However, the ensembles have been rock solid so far

The GFS operational has been putting out some fun stuff too. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

The GFS operational has been putting out some fun stuff too. 

Wasn't the screenshots showing the first week of Feb? A lot of potential before that

[Deweydog]

Model AND met volatility!  And it’s only Tuesday!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wasn't the screenshots showing the first week of Feb? A lot of potential before that

I think so. I did mention the bullishness of recent GFS runs. For the record, I still feel pretty good about this thing. 

[Dave]

Met disagrees? Throw him out. Time for the next met to step up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope ya'll can forgive me for posting unauthorized content, which goes against the prevailing wisdom of a January 1969 redux.

In order to atone I decided to post some epic images from the 12z CFS. Unfortunately this was the best I could find.

[Deweydog]

[Meatyorologist]

GFS un-un-un-un-un-un-un-cancels winter (!!)

[GobBluth]

the speed of this pattern change will depend on that kona low action

[SalemDuck]

FWIW the Drunk Uncle looks very similar to the 12z EPS at day 8

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

FWIW the Drunk Uncle looks very similar to the 12z EPS at day 8

nothing like the 12z gfs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z

12z

[Fircrest]

Cliff Mass seems to be somewhat onboard. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the rain will be returning shortly. 56/45 spread so far today with 1.32” of rain. We will see if we can make a run at the 2” mark later tonight. 

[SalemDuck]

3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

nothing like the 12z gfs

Yep the 18z forms the kona low instead having the low get caught between ridges and nuking the first ridge merger at day 6-7

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Yep the 18z forms the kona low instead having the low get caught between ridges and nuking the first ridge merger at day 6-7

Ridge is eventually getting nuked by all the energy riding over the top

[SalemDuck]

4 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Ridge is eventually getting nuked by all the energy riding over the top

Same thing happens with the EPS progression, it reorganizes and amplifies again on the EPS

[Meatyorologist]

Pivotal stuck at hour 210.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overrunning EVENT, NW Interior. 

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Shot #2 incoming? Would be nice to get a bit more amplification on that block.

Probably a score for the NW even with onshore flow

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice event for everybody in Washington/Oregon....except my house is in the green!!!

[Deweydog]

Probably a coincidence, but this run us mirroring most long range ensemble blends to a T.

[Requiem]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1349122509795332096

[Front Ranger]

So close....

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not as much cold air to tap into across the border.

Yea I was noticing that. Comparing this run to the 12, a lot more cold rain than snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang.

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not as much cold air to tap into across the border.

Probably due to the absence of the cross-polar ridging which forced the PV to reorganize and move south.