January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[GobBluth]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dang.

low snow levels - you're good in silveron

[SeanNyberg]

The lack of discussion over the potential wind event tonight is pretty funny. Sure, it has been mentioned, but everyone argues over 14+ day models, yet there is a potential event developing right now.

Maybe it is because no one seems to know what to do with it, local Mets seem a bit perplexed, but it just seems we are always looking at next month when there is a possible noteworthy event on our doorstep.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

The lack of discussion over the potential wind event tonight is pretty funny. Sure, it has been mentioned, but everyone argues over 14+ day models, yet there is a potential event developing right now.

Maybe it is because no one seems to know what to do with it, local Mets seem a bit perplexed, but it just seems we are always looking at next month when there is a possible noteworthy event on our doorstep.

The Euro has showed 3-4 windstorms that have not materialized this year. Not holding my breath

[GobBluth]

the ridiculous 500mbs are heading southeast across alaska finally by hr 312

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

The lack of discussion over the potential wind event tonight is pretty funny. Sure, it has been mentioned, but everyone argues over 14+ day models, yet there is a potential event developing right now.

Maybe it is because no one seems to know what to do with it, local Mets seem a bit perplexed, but it just seems we are always looking at next month when there is a possible noteworthy event on our doorstep.

It's just hard to trust the Euro right now due to its tendancy to exaggerate wind speeds. But the GFS from my understanding may be underinitializing that developing low. Certainly something to watch this evening. I think that if it goes, it goes hard, and if it duds, it duds hard. We'll see.

[Phil]

Fwiw, the 18z GFS is a nice improvement with regards to the second SSW. Waves breaking all over the place.

[Deweydog]

Gusts to around 40 down here look like a good bet.  Not much else to say about it.

Should be a nice stormy night.

[SeanNyberg]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's just hard to trust the Euro right now due to its tendancy to exaggerate wind speeds. But the GFS from my understanding may be underinitializing that developing low. Certainly something to watch this evening. I think that if it goes, it goes hard, and if it duds, it duds hard. We'll see.

If it Duds hard it will be noticed by only a few people, if it Hits hard, people are going to be livid that the local Mets didn't sufficiently warn them. It's an interesting gamble the local news is taking right now. Probably the right one, but it will be huge if this thing hits. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

It is interesting when something regional and impactful gets overlooked.

It's also worth considering that poorly forecast developing offshore lows have happened at least five times this wet season, while widespread appreciable snowfall hasn't even been approached. It's pretty easy to understand why this upcoming pattern change is garnering the most attention.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I was talking to a local met who occasionally posts on here (IbrChris). He said after looking at the EURO weeklies he gives PDX about a 20% chance of seeing accumulating snow before mid-February. Even for my elevation he doesn't think it looks great with snow levels mostly hanging out in the 2-3K range.  

Andrew is not on board.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Andrew is not on board.

Death and taxes. Water is wet.

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hope ya'll can forgive me for posting unauthorized content, which goes against the prevailing wisdom of a January 1969 redux.

In order to atone I decided to post some epic images from the 12z CFS. Unfortunately this was the best I could find.

I’d be more worried if the CFS was on board.

[TacomaWaWx]

If this gfs run verifies it’ll be a lot of snow up above 1000’ or so. Last week of January is looking good for foothill snow...hopefully it changes and we can get some down to sea level. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fwiw, the 18z GFS is a nice improvement with regards to the second SSW. Waves breaking all over the place.

How often is it to have back to back SSW and does have another SSW affect the first one?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Agreed. Outside of some maps I've been trying to keep up with, hasn't been much discussion. I've seen weather folks over in the Twittersphere talking about it more today though.

I will say the Euro has been steadfast in showing pretty strong winds and it has ensemble support among it's own suite of members. I'll either gain a lot of respect for it tonight, or lose most confidence in it's wind guidance.

It’s weird how it’s been pretty much on it’s own regarding the strength of the system. I guess we will know tonight. Kinda hoping it doesn’t verify as we’ve had 10 inches of rain here the last 2 weeks...roughly 3” in the last 36 hours. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How often is it to have back to back SSW and does have another SSW affect the first one?

I don’t know. It’s not common, that’s for sure.

[Kolk1604]

16 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Probably due to the absence of the cross-polar ridging which forced the PV to reorganize and move south.

Here's hour 180 to 300 of the GFSv16. It's trying!

 

[wxmet]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's hour 180 to 300 of the GFSv16. It's trying!

Much more favorable and substantially different that the operational.

[AlTahoe]

Hours 354 to 384 are what dreams are made out of. I can't imagine the snowfall I would receive if that happened exactly as depicted. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2008 called. They want their pattern back. 

[Requiem]

FWIW nearly every model shows at least a quick burst of 45 mph wind gusts for PDX— anyways here’s the EURO ensemble for PDX regarding wind.

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2008 called. They want their pattern back. 

2008 called me at the end of December and asked me what I was doing later this month.  I thought it was weird and random until recently.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2008 called. They want their pattern back. 

Fun convective action. Like a warmer Jan 2012

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Tim called me, he's mad you beat him to this.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Rainfall records seem pretty easy over the last decade.  

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim called me, he's mad you beat him to this.

I did call you... I just had to vent.   Thanks for being there, Andrew!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did call you... I just had to vent.   Thanks for being there, Andrew!  

 

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rainfall records seem pretty easy over the last decade.  

 

 

 

 

HIO just broke one. 3 consecutive years under 30” precip. Never seen before there

[Kolk1604]

18z GFSv16 2m Temps

[The Blob]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2008 called. They want their pattern back. 

And I'm still in the green...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the Euro, 18z just coming out and looks pretty similar to 12z.

A hair weaker (roughly 5mph or less difference) but still noticeably stronger than other models.

The part that is freaking me out is the 65-70mph gusts being shown for this area...

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’m in the light blue!!!! Wait that’s bad

[MossMan]

Busy day at work so I fell behind on the forum madness. Looks like winter was cancelled/un-cancelled about 14 times since last night! So to recap... IBSChris, TWL, and JAYA are not on board. Andrew fell off board again but is pretending to still be somewhat possibly maybe onboard, Matt is slightly more onboard along with Cliff Mass. Otherwise we are looking at 1,700ft snow levels and rain for most everyone.

Oh and possibly a sizeable windstorm tonight that nobody cares about, and OJ is still alive while Dr. Rumack is still dead. (Wish it was the other way around) 

Did I miss anything else? 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

So close....

We finally converted you!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Busy day at work so I fell behind on the forum madness. Looks like winter was cancelled/un-cancelled about 14 times since last night! So to recap... IBSChris, TWL, and JAYA are not on board. Andrew fell off board again but is pretending to still be somewhat possibly maybe onboard, Matt is slightly more onboard along with Cliff Mass. Otherwise we are looking at 1,700ft snow levels and rain for most everyone.

Oh and possibly a sizeable windstorm tonight that nobody cares about, and OJ is still alive while Dr. Rumack is still dead. (Wish it was the other way around) 

Did I miss anything else? 

I made the mistake of ribbing Kayla about her 12Z meteogram warnings.  That was the one post that drew Fred's ire today amongst all the other drama.    For that I am deeply sorry.    

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Busy day at work so I fell behind on the forum madness. Looks like winter was cancelled/un-cancelled about 14 times since last night! So to recap... IBSChris, TWL, and JAYA are not on board. Andrew fell off board again but is pretending to still be somewhat possibly maybe onboard, Matt is slightly more onboard along with Cliff Mass. Otherwise we are looking at 1,700ft snow levels and rain for most everyone.

Oh and possibly a sizeable windstorm tonight that nobody cares about, and OJ is still alive while Dr. Rumack is still dead. (Wish it was the other way around) 

Did I miss anything else? 

Phil is back and onboard as always 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS looks good. 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Busy day at work so I fell behind on the forum madness. Looks like winter was cancelled/un-cancelled about 14 times since last night! So to recap... IBSChris, TWL, and JAYA are not on board. Andrew fell off board again but is pretending to still be somewhat possibly maybe onboard, Matt is slightly more onboard along with Cliff Mass. Otherwise we are looking at 1,700ft snow levels and rain for most everyone.

Oh and possibly a sizeable windstorm tonight that nobody cares about, and OJ is still alive while Dr. Rumack is still dead. (Wish it was the other way around) 

Did I miss anything else? 

Epstein didn’t kill himself.

[TacomaWaWx]

Maxed out at 57 today...warmest max temp since 12/21. Raining hard again. We will see about this wind tonight...even ~40mph winds could do some damage tonight with the high soil saturation. 

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEFS looks good. 

Really solid. Looks like the mean is below -5 at SEA nonstop from hour 270 to 360 and heights get below 537.