GHweatherChris Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Pretty much will come down to real-timing tracking. Here's a thread of some of the active Twitter accounts discussing it. I'll be keeping an eye on these as well as satellite images. Euro deepens the low as it moves towards the NW tip of the Olympic Peninsula. Other models keep it weaker. Have past significant windstorms that we have had in Western Washington, or Oregon for that matter, been accurately forecasted? It seems to my recollection that when we have had strong wind storms they have usually been somewhat of a surprise....or at least not much media hyped before hand. And the ones most advertised have often been busts. I do like windstorms, but because I work in park maintenance, the results aren't much fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The part that is freaking me out is the 65-70mph gusts being shown for this area... Meh, the numbers on the Euro wind maps are usually like 20 mph too high. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 FWIW Hrrrrrrrr is now advertising wind gusts of 45-55 throughout the W. Valley. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Meh, the numbers on the Euro wind maps are usually like 20 mph too high. Seems like anything over 45mph is good enough to produce extended power outages up here. lol. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, Fircrest said: Have past significant windstorms that we have had in Western Washington, or Oregon for that matter, been accurately forecasted? It seems to my recollection that when we have had strong wind storms they have usually been somewhat of a surprise....or at least not much media hyped before hand. And the ones most advertised have often been busts. I do like windstorms, but because I work in park maintenance, the results aren't much fun! The last windstorm to be really hyped up that actually happened was December 1995... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just started pouring in Renton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Don't look at last night's extended GEFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmann/status/1349159758381531136 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 According to Shannon, the GFS jumps on board with the wind gusts. OOF. Still no advisories or any of that sort from the NWS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Don't look at last night's extended GEFS Oh wow. Good thing I haven't eaten dinner yet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I made the mistake of ribbing Kayla about her 12Z meteogram warnings. That was the one post that drew Fred's ire today amongst all the other drama. For that I am deeply sorry. Drama? What'd I miss? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Don’t think we will have an issue going over 2” of rain on the day before midnight. Currently at 1.51” should end up our wettest day since 12/20/19. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Don't look at last night's extended GEFS Post them pls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Drama? What'd I miss? It was a wild day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It was a wild day. And we are still about 10 days out from the big pattern shift??? Going to be a week+ of wild days coming up...Everyone better buckle up!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Post them pls I'm guessing this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Post them pls Not done yet. Just a flat, broad ridge too close to the coast and doesn't even get close to Alaska. After hour 384 it turns into this a few days later and pretty much stays this way. Not too worried though, the only long range run in quite awhile that hasn't been good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I'm guessing this I am talking about beyond hour 384. The 0Z GEFS goes to 35 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I am talking about beyond hour 384. The 0Z GEFS goes to 35 days. lol oh yeah I forgot about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Seems a bit wreck-less to not have some wind advisory at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 00z NAM. Pretty epic for our friends in Oregon if this verifies... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: Seems a bit wreck-less to not have some wind advisory at this point. Probably going to be atleast some ~45mph gusts tonight. That alone is advisory level. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 My generator is on standby...And My creaky tree might be coming down tonight. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: My generator is on standby...And My creaky tree might be coming down tonight. Ground probably isn’t quite as saturated up there as it is down here...but the trade off will probably be slightly stronger winds like usual north of Everett. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Interested to see how high the King tide ends up tomorrow here in Tacoma with all the heavy rainfall and snow melt added into the mix. Already at 1.67” on the day and it’s pouring out there...probably will be for awhile too radar shows lots of rain coming. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 hours ago, iFred said: By God thats @liquidsnow's music! The Winter Cancel Train is back and better than ever. Can you imagine the looks on those weenie faces when we go a couple weeks with solid model consensus on a 3-4 week window of solid troughing with favorable ingredients for snow only to have it all melt away to the cold reality that is 38º rain. Not really sure why I'm being tagged in a response to such a pessimistic post. Perhaps change my username to DrySnow and I will change your fortunes down south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Wind is starting to ramp up here with the return of the heavy rain. Gusts in the upper 20's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Usually winds are stronger up here in the West Hills so I have all my appliances charging. We'll see what happens. 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Currently 51 and heavy drizzle. .46” on the day, 4.41” for the month. Had a high of 52 low of 45. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Usually winds are stronger up here in the West Hills so I have all my appliances charging. We'll see what happens. Your stove and fridge can be charged? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Your stove and fridge can be charged? Appliance burn! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Your stove and fridge can be charged? *chargeable appliances, would be nice to have a fridge that worked without power though. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Gotta say. It's pretty weird to see this literally 3 hours from now and not even a Wind Advisory anywhere. They've been issuing those lately for far less potent looking setups than this. 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Gotta say. It's pretty weird to see this literally 3 hours from now and not even a Wind Advisory anywhere. They've been issuing those lately for far less potent looking setups than this. Wonder if they're waiting for the 00z GFS to come out and confirm before officially making the call. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 According to Twitter NWS is sending out an 8 p.m. update. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 King Euro making a stand? If this doesn't bust, would be a badly needed wind for the Euro for wind storms. Always over does it lately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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