January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Aggressive trough .

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like it's about to get cold at day 8.

Thanks for posting Day 8. Pivotal is a bit slow tonight.

[Front Ranger]

TWL!!

 

[FroYoBro]

That is the classic GFS we know and love. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Warning shot 

[GobBluth]

No offshore flow = 33 degree rain

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

TWL!!

 

Kold 

[Front Ranger]

Blocking ridge gets beefy in a hurry. Just needs to amplify north a bit more.

[Kolk1604]

00z GFSv16 Day 8

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z GFSv16 Day 8

Looks like a bowling pin.

[GeorgeWx]

9 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

No offshore flow = 33 degree rain

It will be cold enough to support snow down to sea level 

[Kolk1604]

00z GFSv16 Day 9

Arctic Bridge getting there?

[GobBluth]

Just now, GeorgeWx said:

It will be cold enough to support snow down to sea level 

I was referring to the 192 hr wave

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll see if it can amplify again, but this run gets very very chilly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE just gusted to 41. 

[Requiem]

Is not a single Portland area met saying anything about at least the possibility of some 40 mph gusts in a few hours? I’m surprised haha 

[wxmet]

Incoming

 

[Omegaraptor]

Well, PDX did it. Our 60 for January is done and over with.

[Meatyorologist]

Tiny, insignificant block out over the Pacific.

[Dave]

Winds are cranking down here. Probably 35+ so far.

[GobBluth]

Gem cut off a portion of the low, gets close to same block but much warmer airmass over the nw

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridge is so far west. 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Gem cut off a portion of the low, gets close to same block but much warmer airmass over the nw

How’s the 4CH looking 

[Requiem]

Well, we shall se what happens with the wind, color me surprised if NWS Portland doesn’t even mention the possibility.

[bainbridgekid]

The West trend is definitely concerning if you're hoping for something long lasting and meaningful. Ensembles have been creeping that way.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Well, we shall se what happens with the wind, color me surprised if NWS Portland doesn’t even mention the possibility.

I'm thinking gusts 46-53mph PDX metro

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The West trend is definitely concerning if you're hoping for something long lasting and meaningful.

Yea we will see. I’d be happy with just a little snow and a quick event too. Still a long ways out...might not match up to the ensembles. 

[Phil]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The West trend is definitely concerning if you're hoping for something long lasting and meaningful.

This run loses the -NAO which had been helping bottle the cold pool into W-Canada in earlier runs. I suspect future runs will bring it back.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm thinking gusts 46-53mph PDX metro

How does satellite imagery look? I’m not the greatest at grasping details regarding the visible.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm thinking gusts 46-53mph PDX metro

As of 9 PM the PDX-MFR gradient is at -12.7mb. Typically -12mb is the threshold for 40-50mph gusts for Salem to Portland

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

How does satellite imagery look? I’m not the greatest at grasping details regarding the visible.

Pretty decent. Deepening low moving east towards Vancouver Island. Nice front offshore. All models tonight paint 50mph+ gusts for PDX tonight.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 1.92” on the day...3.19” storm total and 7.86” on the month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty decent. Deepening low moving east towards Vancouver Island. Nice front offshore. All models tonight paint 50mph+ gusts for PDX tonight.

What’s the PDX-BLI gradient?

[Gradient Keeper]

I know we say this every Winter, but it is agonizing how everything has to line up just right for arctic blasts, or wind storms, or in the Spring/Summer for t-storms....

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at 7.02 inches for the month.  

The list of years with more than 7 inches of rain in the first 15 days of January is pretty short... it includes only 2021.

Plenty more rain coming overnight still so might get close to 8 inches.   Previous record for Jan 1-15 was 6.91 inches in 1956.    And 2006 was in second place at 6.78 inches.  

[Requiem]

Absolutely nothing from the NWS here in their latest discussion. Whew.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What’s the PDX-BLI gradient?

-10.3mb

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, iFred said:

If he steps out of line I’ll ban him, SilverFallsAndrew, and Deweydog.

No more adorable puppy pictures?

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge merger at Day 6.5 to 7 right? Yeah it's going to be awhile before we have a better idea.

[Kolk1604]

Sigh... going backwards. I'm chuckin' these, better runs ahead! I believe in what Phil said about the -NAO.