January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

Euro v. GFS at day 9:

 

[MossMan]

Numbers have started to pop up over the last half hour. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just had a powerful gust here.  

[snow_wizard]

Nice block placement on the ECMWF tonight.  The initial cold shot is well within 10 days now.  Still a lot of questions on details, but overall a cold pattern looks pretty likely.  Still decent potential for a memorable event.

BTW....for those who didn't see the 18z parallel GFS it had a lot of lowland snow.  The first really good run I've seen from that model.

[MossMan]

Just had a big boy gust here!! 

[snow_wizard]

The temps are absolutely ridiculous tonight.  Lots' of mid to upper 50s right now.  Pretty typical before a coming cold wave.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, paulb/eugene said:

I ordered a 522 dm upper low over KSEA at 264h on Amazon.  514 dm not available apparently 

Its probably a non-con item and is floating somewhere in problem solve 🥸

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just had a big boy gust here!! 

Almost nothing here so far.  Anytime the low is northwest of us it just kills the wind here.

[Requiem]

Pretty underwhelming, but EURO does show a surge of westerlies as the low passes with the pressure rise.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Pretty underwhelming, but EURO does show a surge of westerlies as the low passes with the pressure rise.

It was as forecasted. The euro seems to be bad with surface winds. Don’t trust it. 

[snow_wizard]

It appears PDX has soared to 61 degrees.  That is pretty crazy stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

This seems like one of those times the EPS tonight could be considerably better/colder than the Op. 

We'll have to see the next 2-3 days if there is any cross polar flow into NWT. Real key.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It was as forecasted. The euro seems to be bad with surface winds. Don’t trust it. 

Yeah, sorta burned myself with this one, thought we’d at least reach 45 or so at PDX with models intensifying wind speeds. Ah well, maybe another time.

[The Blob]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears PDX has soared to 61 degrees.  That is pretty crazy stuff.

Knew it!

[MossMan]

Just lost power for a few seconds. Lots of flickering. 

[GHweatherChris]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears PDX has soared to 61 degrees.  That is pretty crazy stuff.

Going from 59 at 6:53 to 61 now is definitely not the definition of soared to 61.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

This seems like one of those times the EPS tonight could be considerably better/colder than the Op. 

We'll have to see the next 2-3 days if there is any cross polar flow into NWT. Real key.

So far pretty similar to 12Z EPS

[Link]

21 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Its probably a non-con item and is floating somewhere in problem solve 🥸

Just get your money back. Amazon has canceled my items a couple times within 24 hours I'm credited. This also works with Amazon gift cards too which is how I first discovered it though I'm not sure a bout something as big as an Amazon Storm!.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Should say 850s similar through hour 300

[Requiem]

EURO still insists on that strong westerly surge so I’ll hold out some hope. Hoquiam got nailed as soon as the front itself came in.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, dolt said:

Eugene has joined the 60 degree club.

Broke the daily record high of 59F set back in 1983. We will also break the record for the warmest average temp and warmest low temp for the date of 54.5F and 51F from 1991 as we only made it down to 52F.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Yeah, sorta burned myself with this one, thought we’d at least reach 45 or so at PDX with models intensifying wind speeds. Ah well, maybe another time.

I don’t think we’ve peaked with the winds quite yet.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I just had my biggest gust thus far probably 45mph. Decent.

[Gradient Keeper]

I remain cautiously optimistic. If the block ends up being similar to what we see now with that tilt, the cold air could certainly be there to tap into. That would be a major smack in the face to have ideal blocking, but no cold air in BC/AB/NWT....

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I remain cautiously optimistic. If the block ends up being similar to what we see now with that tilt, the cold air could certainly be there to tap into. That would be a major smack in the face to have ideal blocking, but no cold air in BC/AB/NWT....

That is a relative term. Is there ever "warm" air in January in the NWT?  

[MossMan]

Current Snohomish Co outages...

[wxmet]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think we’ve peaked with the winds quite yet.  

The stronger winds haven’t quite made it here yet based on radar but they are closing in.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow wind is really cranking now. Probably 40ish mph. Very heavy rain...up to 2.21” with very heavy rain currently. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Stormiest weather we've had in awhile for Seattle.

No flickering or brown outs though.

[ShawniganLake]

Pressure bottomed out at 989.4mb here. Rising quickly now. 992mb. Strong SSW winds with power flickering. The west surge is racing down  the Strait. Trial island went from ~10mph to gusting to 70mph in a matter of minutes. 
 

 

[snow_wizard]

Great looking EPS once again.  The control is insanely blocky and quite cold.  No doubt the models are going to struggle with the exact configuration of the blocking for a while yet.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Heavy rain and wind. Just lost power in Des Moines/Kent. Was in the middle of a quiz...not anymore

[SnarkyGoblin]

Is the euro back to being king for seeing this so early?

[wxmet]

Power is flickering here

[TacomaWaWx]

Really loud now...can hear big limbs breaking. Not good timing for this wind really saturated soils. Power flickering here. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

Is the euro back to being king for seeing this so early?

Definitely saw it early but unless the westerly surge here is very strong it overestimated the winds insanely.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

Is the euro back to being king for seeing this so early?

The euro owned the other models with this storm. Track and intensity. 

[Omegaraptor]

Big gust just came through. This one had to be 40+.

[bainbridgekid]

Wind is roaring here now.

43 mph so far at KPAE. Wouldn't surprise me to see them touch 50 in the next couple hours.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gotten some gusts over 45 now. Lots of substation flashes...might lose power soon here winds really blowing.